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The Buy price is currently 19.875, so a lot of that Trade list is b*ll*cks.
A lot of those shown as sells are actually buys. I know, I have bought under 20p over last couple of days and it was shown as a sell. Incredible and frustrating that the SP is so low but hopefully results in the next week and some positive order/pipeline news will get us moving up. It’s certainly long overdue.
I assume that this is a shorting action prior to the Mistral anouncement. Hope it is nothing worse.
I wonder if any news will come out of the flow battery forum conference next week?
Not sure why it’s showing as a sell, but the 3,517 showing as a sell at 9:58 this morning was a buy, just topping up a little in advance of news.
The results should no doubt include an updated on the pipelines but I think the webinar (maybe following a few days later) will likely get things more fired up.
Full year results out next week. Not expecting any surprises, but it’s an opportunity for this remarkable company to get a little exposure. Any thoughts anyone?
The 1000 trade recorded earlier at 19.8p as a sell was my buy.
Morning all,
Someone asked my opinion on valuation yesterday which I answered this morning with a fairly long thread.
Thought it would be worthwhile copying it here also.
https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1803311870322880683
Probably need to have announcement re director options while the share price is low - fix the price and then watch it fly - ha ha.
Not really bothered either way, I can see this flying following a few updates, especially the forward looking statements at the full year announcements - when investors see the the update's start to come through, I personally think this will fly,
It’s clearly no secret on what they expecting/forecast so if this comes off, or even starts well, then IES will rerate quickly.
Good luck all
That was my feeling also Richard08.
I have spent a little time looking up the rules around placements without success but my gut says they have access to too much inside info to be allowed to participate. but others may know otherwise.
We are due 2023 results I believe? The closed period is two months (?) so there can't be any director buys at the moment.
For those that perhaps don't visit Twitter so much here is a thread I have put together on signposted news over the next 6-9 months.
Significant contract wins. Supply chain and market development. Mistral launch. Lots coming our way as Invinity moves into the next phase of its corporate development.
https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1803051971647017025
Why do you expect them?
All you need to know.
Potential 5.5x in 12 months.
Fully funded, equity stake held by the UK Government.
Incredible IES sits 3p below the placing price, and also market cap is just £20m above the cash in bank.
So the full enterprise value of IES is just £20m LOL
Totally mind boggling. As orders start coming through, expect IES to sky rocket towards target price.
DYOR
So why no director buys???
Mistral: Driving Revenues and a Move Into Profit We estimate a FY 2023 revenue of £21.7m from sales of 36MWh of batteries and small additional revenue from ongoing installed fleet maintenance services. For FY 2024, we forecast overall revenue of £37.3m from sales of 57MWh of VFB systems and revenue from services. This forecast is supported in part by new orders already announced including 15MWh from Everdura, the 4.0MWh order announced today and a pipeline that includes over 40MWh of projects that are negotiated and close to signing and the 432.0MWh noted above. Although order cover is not yet published for FY 2025, given its cost and functionality attractiveness to the market, we expect that Mistral will dominate sales. We estimate FY 2025 revenue growing to £114.0m from sales of 300MWh Mistral VFB systems and £3.5m from ancillary services. For FY 2026, our estimated sales of 400MWh of VFBs and ancillary services produce an estimated revenue of £155.0m. For FY 2023, we forecast operating costs to have risen from £19.0m to £20.0m. During FY 2024, IES will be completing Mistral product finalisation and launching international marketing. We expect operating costs to rise £22.0m and in FY 2025, by circa 10% to £24.0m as the company ramps up sales of Mistral. For FY 2023 and FY 2024 respectively, this results in EBITDA losses of £20.8m, and £19.3m. For FY 2025, we see a move to EBITDA positive of £0.7m. In FY 2026, on revenue of £155.0m, a 22% gross margin and operating costs of £29.0m, we forecast an EBITDA profit of £6.3m. For FY 2024, we estimate an operating cash outflow of £20.1m combined with £1.0m of capital expenditure, £0.2m of lease expenditure plus £54.6m of net proceeds from the recent fund raise to see end cash close at £38.3m. For FY 2025, we estimate end cash increased by £0.9m to £39.2m and, on strongly rising sales, for FY 2026, we forecast net cash from operations of £6.3m, capital expenditure of £1.3m and £0.2m of lease expenditure to see end cash increase by £4.8m to £44.0m.
Invinity Energy Systems (IES LN) develops Vanadium Flow Batteries (VFBs) for utility-scale grid storage. The Group’s next-generation Mistral VFB technology, jointly developed with Gamesa Electric, launches in H2 2024 to provide grid-scale longer-duration energy storage (LDES) as renewable generation increases globally. To capture this opportunity, in May 2024, the Group raised £57.4m through a share placing which included £25.0m of UK Infrastructure Bank funding for projects. The Group announced yesterday a 4 MWh VFB sale to PowerFlex, part of EDF Renewables North America on behalf of a California Energy Commission-funded solar microgrid project being undertaken by the Rincon Band of Luiseño Indians. This win, in the high growth U.S. grid storage markets, underpins our FY 2024 forecast for revenue growth of 72% to £37.3m from sales of 57MWh of VFB systems and services. With its strong commercial pipeline, we see this as an early new order unlocked by the Group’s strengthened balance sheet that provides a new source of potential share price catalysts.
Recommendation and Target Price IES is on a high growth trajectory supported by rising order and underpinned by the new funding in May 2024. The licencing and royalty model and UK investment projects are not explicitly modelled and provide upside potential. Our DCF valuation of £486m sets our 12-month target price of 110p/sh. Buy
I have just bought 40,000 shares and it shows up as a sale. This seems to be happening a lot atm.
Over in the USA the share price on the OTC market ended up last night at $0.282! It will be interesting to see what happens when the US market opens.
Not sure if this has been posted before as I am a newbie. Worth having a look at this for context on the supply chain issue - https://chemrxiv.org/engage/api-gateway/chemrxiv/assets/orp/resource/item/62a76b9f8f92d915724f9f90/original/materials-availability-and-supply-chain-considerations-for-vanadium-in-grid-scale-redox-flow-batteries.pdf
Small step in the right direction. The big test will be whether they can scale up to deliver products to the quality, timescales and budget required by customers. This inflection point is often very tricky to manage for companies with innovative technology.
Good to see the pipeline projects being realized.
''Vanadium forms about two-thirds of the value of the electrolyte, which in turn forms about a quarter of the landed cost of a battery, and so a fluctuation in the price of vanadium will impact the profitability of battery sales. '
If the vanadium price spikes in time due to large battery manufacturers demanding enormous amounts of vanadium then I'm sure there will be fixed price off-take agreements in place to ensure long and prosperous business relationships - it won't be good for the producers either to see the boom bust cycles of old.
As for partnerships IES has an MOU with US Vanadium although they don't have a particularly big electrolyte plant. For now IES' batteries aren't consuming all that much vanadium but they will soon and I'm sure we'll hear more re electrolyte partners and long term pricing models as the company and sector matures.
No they aren’t.
I believe IES is partnered with Bushveld Minerals in South Africa which is one of the largest Vanadium producers in the world?