RE: What’s next I wonder…Today 12:36
Here you go GBCol…
Assuming the Hagshaw LDES project is not included in Ofgem's final Cap & Floor awards (it was not included in the current "minded-to" list), it doesn't necessarily mean the project is dead—but it does materially change its prospects.
For the site itself, there are a few possible outcomes:
It could continue as a merchant project.
The developers could still build the battery without Cap & Floor support, relying on wholesale arbitrage, ancillary services and Capacity Market revenues. However, for a very large, long-duration vanadium flow battery such as Hagshaw, this is much harder to finance because lenders and equity investors generally prefer the revenue certainty that the Cap & Floor regime provides.
It could be redesigned or downsized.
The developer may choose to alter the project's size, duration or technology mix to improve the economics without regulated support.
It could be resubmitted in a future application window.
This is probably the most realistic route if the project remains technically strong. Ofgem has already indicated that further LDES application windows are expected after Window 1, subject to consultation and future decisions.
Planning consent and grid rights may still retain value.
Even without an award, any planning work, environmental studies and grid connection progress are not necessarily wasted. Those assets can be valuable if the project is revived later or sold.
What does this mean for Invinity (IES)?
For Invinity, missing Hagshaw would clearly be disappointing because Hagshaw had been viewed as one of the flagship UK projects expected to use its vanadium flow battery technology.
However, the outcome is not as negative as it might first appear because:
Invinity has announced that the Frontier Legacy project, which was included in Ofgem's minded-to portfolio, is expected to use approximately half vanadium flow batteries and half zinc-halide batteries. Invinity described this as an important validation of its technology and will now work with Frontier Power towards financial close.
Ofgem's consultation is still open, with final awards due in Autumn 2026, so the current list is not yet legally final. While changes are typically limited, there is precedent in other Cap & Floor schemes for projects to move between the provisional and final lists.
So, if Hagshaw ultimately misses out, I'd expect:
the project to pause while the developers reassess financing,
a good chance of it being prepared for a future LDES window rather than abandoned outright,
and Invinity to focus near-term on converting the Frontier Legacy opportunity into a firm commercial order while pursuing other UK and international projects.
Sign In
Follow the stocks
