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There's something that GLG knows - they increased their shorts yesterday.
I still think today's price action was an over reaction and we should be back in 150's.
Thereal0007, you really should stop the forecasting, you are wrong more times than you are right.. As an American you should stick to the markets you know, put your money in American Airlines and enjoy the ride up. As for IAG, if history is anything to go by, the share price was 165 pence on results day and by the 15th March it had dropped to 133 pence. I think we all know where this is going in the next few weeks.
Skindle, -
1. I am not American.
2. Most markets in the world follow what US markets does. If US market sneezes, UK market will catch a cold.
3. No one in the world can accurately forecast the market movement, its all probabilities.
4. The reason why IAG share price went to 170 last year was because of shorts covering from 90p
5. The chart looks like its going to go down a lot but I honestly think todays was a bear trap. Profit at 3.5B euros but valuation at 7.5B doesn't make sense. We will see some analysts price target tomorrow and next week.
6. The market always goes to the price that hurts the most people. The market does not know your price. Do your own homework and set stops or take profit.
7. The reason why most people are angry and shattered today is because everyone's waiting for that once in a year 20% price action. Stop being greedy and you will make money.
5.1 I want to elaborate on this point further. Total IAG Shares - 4.92 B x 1.47p (current price) = 7.23 Market Cap.
where as the Enterprise value is14.02 B, that's twice the current value and maybe that's why barclays raised from 250 p to 260 p. IAG - PE ratio is 4.20 vs average industry at PE 9.74, what's more attractive is its forward PE.
so if you are worried if IAG will go down to sub 140 levels - 4.92 B x 1.40p = 6.88 Market Cap, when in reality the profit is 3.5 B. If you study how cheap IAG share is, you won't sell at this price and will chill till it reaches above 200p.
The casino wants your cheap shares, they will have push down the share price to get yours.
It woukd be nice to see dime sort of recovery today as without that i eindef how much further it will fall.
There'll be broker uodates following the redults it will be interesting to see what there thoughts are. I know it doesn't make a lot of difference as theyre useless but intestesting to know consencus.
Thank you thereal0007, I appreciate your thoughts, apologies for my aggression but it was sheer frustration at the end of a very frustrating day. I agree with your calculations, there is not now an analysis website anywhere that is talking down IAG but again I say we know what happened in 2023 and with GLG increasing its short position I can’t help but feel the same movement is going to happen again. I really hope I am wrong.
Just reading through an artickd there thats suggesting the poor return of business travel has put a damper on things.
Maybe IAG need to relook at there business model and accept the fact that business travel post covid will never return to that of Pre.
It is very frustrating holding IAG as theyre possibly the slowest recovering high progile share.
That is what I see too... IAG is still very cheap to buy, annual report matched and exceeded expectations slightly yesterday. Although it is never fun to be in red, it is a part of the game. IF big boys see a valuation close to 200,- SP will get there soon, just wait. Added Yesterday to my portfolio and reduced average price to 156,-
Yesterday was very disappointing i think we all expected more (SP movement i mean not results) but i'm def holding , this will recover, those sales and profits carnt be ignored forever , yes debt is an issue but they can well afford to service it , no news on divi i think is the big issue here , but if they are lowering debt first then i think the wait will be worth it . i still predict £3 by end of year - GLA
I've added some more (new here).
Bear trap. Sooner or later this will hit £2. GLAH
"We are focused on ensuring disciplined capacity deployment into our markets. British Airways is planned to return to pre-pandemic
levels of non-premium capacity in 2024; long-haul capacity by 2025; and premium capacity by 2026."
I guess thats when they expect it to recover fully (premium). But they said business travel is coming back at a slow pace but its coming back. So guys, chill...and trade it until then. This share is not going down to £1....it might take longer than anticipated but it's going higher. lets do this!!!
Div announcement will come this year, just watch. It will be announced out of the blue. That will boost share price. GLA.
Sund, they will not return dividends this year, they have a pension obligation. The big boys like a dividend and as there are virtually a minority of 'big boys' in this share, they have no interest to appease us retail investors who make up the majority.
Callego gets his bonus, the other directors get their bonus's and stock options along with stock rewards etc.
One trick the analysts are missing is.... who needs corporate travel to come back fully and quickly when ticket prices are through the roof...by adding capacity, any capacity..the price is high no matter where one sits. I travel Club Europe most of the time with a few Club World flights when i do business in USA..And prices are much higher than in 2019. The share price is being manipulated at the moment, they want retail investors out IMHO..and they will manage it..then they will jump in and IAG will be the best airline for profits( analysts will say). It's a all a game. I am sticking to it..the only way to beat them is to keep adding at cheap prices.. DYOR.
Fordm, they have NO pension obligation this year...NAPS is almost in the black...minus 30 million i think. it's 100 % funded.
DYOR.
"Outlook
• Demand continues to be robust, with particular strength in leisure travel. We are currently 92% booked for Q1 2024 and 62%
booked for H1 2024*, ahead of our position last year
• We are continuing to invest in our core markets and in growing our global leadership positions. We plan to grow capacity (ASK)
by c.7% in 2024. In particular British Airways will continue to rebuild to its pre-COVID-19 long-haul capacity and Iberia to grow
efficiently in the attractive and growing Latin American market
• We expect our non-fuel unit costs to increase slightly in 2024, as we invest in our businesses. Our ongoing transformation
programme will help us to offset the impact of inflation, improve our customer proposition and support the delivery of world-class
margins and returns over the medium term
• We expect to generate significant free cash flow during the year, prior to the benefit of any leasing transactions and with no
additional pension or material debt maturity repayments this year. This is net of capital expenditure related to our investment
plans of around €3.7 billion in 2024"
Here...Fordm, read the last bit. It's 100% funded atm.
Sund, fair enough, but still do not think divis are coming back this year.
Its ok Fordm..I reckon they will and that will boost the share price and profits will be higher unless we get another covid ofc.
Its a recovery story thats taking a bit longer but it will get there...debt will be paid off too..whats not to like?? i also trade IAGand make a good profit in the meantime..i also trade other stocks, CCL which i think will come good too and EZJ which has already given me very good returns. Patience is required ALWAYS. DYOR.
Okay Skindle. That's two forecast check early in the morning.
1. IAG did reach 150 today morning.
2. Bernstein raising target to 210 from 190 - Outperform
Back in the red today......
I think that’s the first raise with many more to come… analysts look at medium to long term… whereas I think many of us are overly concerned with the short term. Personally think the short increase is just playing on market sentiment ….with so many retail investors who are short term orientated and scared easliy it’s quite a logical move to make (in the short term). Market fundamentals are positive, IAG have shown then can capitalise on this so the future is very positive… it’s painful but within a year it will be a different share price story
Sassa, patience. Also , interest rates will be coming down soon so debt will be cheaper. A lot of things will happen this year that will drive the share price UP. Debt will come down, capacity will be higher..new aircraft means less money spent on fuel...etc etc. As we have seen in RR things can change pretty quickly...I am not saying we will go up 100% but we can go up to £2 or higher in the blink of an eye. DYOR.
Behaveen, not sure what you deem as 'short term', but I've held this stock for nearly 3.5 years and it has done nothing but drop.
That kind of puts me squarely in the mid-long term.
Y-O-Y this is 4%+ down. not sure why you would think going forward it would rise. I would be interested to know.
I want this to rise and now I feel some what trapped with capital in a stock that cannot buy other more fruitful stock that have now pushed past and almost doubled in price over that same period.
It is quite obvious GLG are in play to save their short!
Logically speaking, the punt has been proven drastically wrong.