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Started: hesgoingallin, 21 Nov 2023 06:32
Last post: Chapel, 21 Nov 2023 15:25
You can sell today for £3.66 or wait to receive cash of £3.75 paid into your broker account.
Timetable tbc,
Risks deal might not happen seem low chance, someone else might bid higher. Even lower chance I would say
First time for me this one. What happens next/from here?
Last post: AbjectPerformer, 16 Nov 2023 23:17
Any chance Bt group will be bought out? I want this kind of rise!
Congratulations to all SH what a day you have had, unfortunately I wasn't in HC but happy for all , I hope the shop staff are going to be ok.
Started: HappyInvestor100, 16 Nov 2023 09:14
Last post: dimi123, 16 Nov 2023 18:30
Congrats to all longs! I've been invested here for most of the last 2.5 years. It's been a bumpy ride but managed to buy quite a few cheaply over the last 1 year and now have my reward. I hope others have as well, especially those of you with whom we had a nice chat on this board. I've sold my position now and probably won't be posting much on here anymore. Good luck to whoever decides to hold this till the acquisition is complete!
It's a takeover Angelis. The price will hold around this level (the share price Mars have agreed to pay for HOTC) unless something comes out of the blue.
Peeps think a stock jumps 160% and there wont be a retrace? Okaaay. lol
Shorters gettig burned?
Lovely news
There are so many undervalued companies that wil be snapped up at this rate as the market has smashed everything indiscriminately
Started: Elgrebe, 16 Nov 2023 18:29
Last post: Elgrebe, 16 Nov 2023 18:29
Mars have paid a fair price for HOTC in my opinion, for once I manage to come out smelling of roses… I got in at £1.35 after the bad results last summer - but to be honest I didn’t expect this to happen in the current economic climate of uncertainty. Angus and Co have played a very lucrative blinder :)
Last post: bro-ken-broker, 16 Nov 2023 09:17
Probably worth the fca taking a look, huge buys yesterday that just don't take place on a normal trading day.
Well done to those who hold though.
Looks like the big buys were someone in the know - not good form and I hope fca take a look .
I'm sold out completely. What an emotional ride.
Just got a 3000 sell through on HL at 365
Thanks guys albeit I can't seem to sell the buggers now. HL not letting me
There is 3% between the market and offer price and that gapis too big to tempt me to sell. I doubt there will be a counter offer and it could all fall through but both seem v unlikely imv.
CAN I SELL SHARES NOW?
Started: InvestorACE, 16 Nov 2023 08:42
Last post: InvestorACE, 16 Nov 2023 08:42
#VRCI 50p by Xmas
The recent partnership between Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc., a company with a market cap of 182 billion USD, and Verici Dx is a major development that many investors are overlooking. This joint venture has significant implications for the future of both companies and the broader healthcare industry.
Started: clairesmith, 16 Nov 2023 08:23
Last post: clairesmith, 16 Nov 2023 08:23
Check out Focusrite, same pattern of trades and looks like they might get a takeover offer soon
Started: AndrewPhoenix, 13 Nov 2023 11:11
Last post: AndrewPhoenix, 13 Nov 2023 11:11
I'm sensing great things from the company. They appear to have weathered the storm of the past 18 months and have laid out their vision of the future to improve business health and return shareholder value.
Engaging television adverts, new store openings and product ranges are all positive signs heading into the busy Christmas period.
Started: Likeitornot, 24 Oct 2023 07:44
Last post: Likeitornot, 25 Oct 2023 14:49
There was no borrowings at the year end in July '23 but drawdown on RCF by the Autumn (as per Financial Review): "As at 10 October 2023 the Group remains well capitalised with £30m headroom comprising of £8m cash on hand and £22m of unutilised facilities within its £50m RCF, immediately prior to the peak cash-generating trading period."
Premium valuation: does one need a premium valuation for HOTC? Right now at £200m market cap it trades at 10x normalised after tax earning (assuming £220m revenue next year, 12% pre-ifrs ebit margin). One just need it to trade in line with the market at 16x to justify a re-rating gain, let alone revenue/earning expansion
Asset intensity: last 6 yrs store counts went up by 25% with revenue doubling - not fair I think to take a growth period to judge the asset intensity of the business. At the end of the day, if you cap store count they can Jack up pricing and all of that flow to the bottom line. That’s See Candies (Buffett) level of low (!) asset intensity.
Borrowings: are you referring to trade payables? Because clearly q1 24 updates cited a net cash of 8m£ with an undrawn(!) rcf of £20m odd.
There’s a lot to be said for the power of positive sentiment and loyalty and it’s been driving the mcap of HOTC up closer to £200m recently. Who doesn’t like chocolate right?
The quality of their product is top notch and imagery is pure velvet but all this comes at a cost that leaves me wondering whether it can really provide a return for shareholders that justifies a premium valuation.
In total, cash inflow from operations over the last 6 years was £94.1m but the business is asset intensive and this figure excludes capex of £84.2m and lease payments of £37.7m. The net result is an average outflow of about £5m per year, funded by equity raises of £40m in FY22 and £26m in FY20.
The group’s latest cash figures also look to be worsening: The most recent reported figures (mid Oct 2023) show borrowings of £28m whereas at the end of last November (2022), the draw down was £10m lower at £18m – a full 6 weeks later into the pre-Xmas cycle.
Regardless of the above, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the SP continue to rise over the coming weeks. But longer term, it may be that this will taste slightly bitter.
Started: AndrewPhoenix, 25 Oct 2023 10:28
Last post: AndrewPhoenix, 25 Oct 2023 10:28
Number of large buys coming in over the past few weeks build confidence for the future.
Any potential investors will have assessed the company's history and potential in the current market. Whilst the economic environment is still uncertain; positive signs are visible and the turnaround has started
Started: AndrewPhoenix, 6 Oct 2023 11:55
Last post: tom231, 16 Oct 2023 18:57
Interesting - I am keen on anything that adds value to the business. Not only am I shareholder but I am a loyal customer.
Yes - if anything it may be a collaboration. And if such a thing is currently being pursued then it will most likely be when HOTC shoot trough £250m sales (the current maximum revenue that the group can achieve based on 300m chocolate production capacity - assuming pricing stays broadly the same). If Angus T wanted a repeat of the past, i.e. a double in production capacity to say 600m chocs capacity, then he would need outside money. Both debt and equity financing have been done in the past (choc bonds and 2021 equity raise), it's not totally inconceivable that Ale Costa may end up being an equity partner
How would that work the the founders still own a majority stake? Couldn't aquire it with them bring on board and given Angus' passion for the company seems unlikely.
Could be a collaboration though?!
Hi Tom/Andrew, what do you think about Alexandre Tadeau de Costa (Ale Costa) of Brazil Cacau Show who just bought 3% a month or so ago. I notice that in a paper Ale Costa also mentioned he’s looking for m&a target outside Brazil. Cacau Show has 30x the number of store count as HOTC though lots of it is under franchise rather owned store model like HOTC. But there are a lot of similarities in terms of product positioning, leader in premium chocolate gifting etc.
Completely agree Andrew and oddly enough went to same shop a month or so ago and was very pleasantly surprised how busy it was.
Just a shame the share price is a bit of a yawnfest at the moment. Hopefully it will start to make sine meaningful moves upward soon.
Started: katstrangler, 18 Sep 2023 13:08
Last post: tom231, 8 Oct 2023 18:50
The share price has dropped over 70%. The company has no debt, cash reserves and increased its production capacity. It has a multichannel income, growing business streams (velvetiser + cafe) and its founders still own over 50% of the business.
I was also reading an article that luxury chocolate spending goes up during a recession.
Personally I believe there is reason to be optimistic about the business, especially with share price at this level. Of course no one knows the future but i can see this being over £2 by Christmas. My target is over £3 a share.
I know you were after less than £1 Likeitornot but i just can see that happening especially being October. It's hot chocolate season..
The reason there was a negative TU is because trading is poor and the expectation is that this will continue to be the case. So don’t be surprised if next TU is poor too, Christmas or No Christmas. Sorry.
I kept buying all the way down. As you say this is a seasonal dip compounded by their factory upgrade.
IMO wider market will realise the value here at some point soon an pile in
(not that i bought in, then!). But we're starting the run up to Chrismtas, already. So there' going to be some interest in the sp again.
Chocolate purchases only go out of fashion out of season. It'll soon be the 'fudge it! if we're all going to die may as well do it with quality chocs!' season.
Last post: Likeitornot, 17 Sep 2023 18:29
In the last set of results, it was stated that revenues through the tills (so I guess incl. VAT) was £1m per store per annum ON AVERAGE. This is one hell of a combined performance if it is true. It is approaching £3k per day for every store, and must be at least 20% of the stock they hold at any one time. Is this plausible or have I got my decimal point in the wrong place.
Slightly unfair comment on the Japanese expansion. It was covid restrictions that buggered them there. Japan is only just re opening properly now!
Went to the glasow shop Monday, it seemed the Cafe model is proving popular. We'll see if that turns into a profitable exercise.
I'm Still a LTH here, as a family we've been buying HOTC chocolates since the original phone ordering days..... and bought a fair few of shares over the years for my wife... so I'm a fan of the company...
I dont really follow the logic of each store being a % of the mcap. The company has a reach far bigger than its own retail stores, ie concessions and online. That said, I think being a niche operator, which HOTC is, makes expanding the brand tricky. They failed at cosmetics and the rabot restaurant sadly died. Ive stayed at the St Lucia Hotel and its superb but not much room for growth on that side of the business as its only got a handful of rooms.
I'm not sure what the target of vodka is all about?
So, they start hot chocolate for home use via the velvetiser sachets and Hot chocolate and ice cream in stores- all ok.
But what will drive this company back upto £5? Enter the snack bar mass market?? I doubt they could compete on price with Mondalez etc and I very much doubt they have the advertising budget of the bigger rivals.
Maybe its time for Angus to enter the magical world of Wonka and start a chocolate factory tour via the golden ticket... otherwise I see a buyout at some point by the Americans.
One final point- shareholders are not rewarded in any way for our loyalty- about time we got a voucher to use in store!
Chocs Away!
Hopefully we will both be right. The stat which values them at £1.1m per store (and associated share of online sales) just doesn't quite compute for me currently. They just need a convincing growth story to justify it I guess. The Japanese saga dented people's perception of how easy they could deliver on their international growth potential. I really hope that they can find a way to reach new markets as this will help to get to £3 and above again.
Started: PipeDragger, 31 Aug 2023 17:30
Last post: Likeitornot, 1 Sep 2023 07:18
Agreed. Not sure why they are trying to compete in this area. For me, HOTC do well in the gifting market not the food and beverage market. Alcohol yes, hot chocolate and takeaway coffees no.
Went into my local and tried the ice cream come. £3.49 for a small Mr Whippy by Hotel Chocolat.
Then crossed the street to McDonald's for a small McFlurry £1.49. Almost the same. Tried the coffee recently - not very special at Hotel Chocolat and rather small cup. McDonald's isn't special either but the prices are a world apart.
Started: tom231, 31 Aug 2023 14:06
Last post: tom231, 31 Aug 2023 14:06
Can anyone advise what the small (
Started: dimi123, 28 Jun 2023 14:17
Last post: dimi123, 28 Jun 2023 14:17
In case you haven't watched the 20th Anniversary video yet, it's worth the time. A lot of it is marketing of course but they presented some new products that they are working on - new apple pie choc for the velvetiser, compote fruit dark chocs and a new crunchy type of chocolate bar. All looking really good. Also it was a chance to hear from another memeber of senior management and not just Angus.
Started: Cookieptb, 23 Jun 2023 08:39
Last post: Polishcap, 28 Jun 2023 08:35
The 2 dinosaurs are clueless
Activists needed and cavalry is coming
You’re probably right Dimi, but the near destruction for long term shareholders is painful! I have virtually zero faith in Angus rebuilding this. I’m noticing so many start ups selling chocolate that unless we get our act together we’ll be another retail casualty. I’ve doubled down 3 times over the past few years so no more cash to put in this until I see a major turnaround….. I’m beginning to Hope some USA outfit saves the day!
Tbh nothing unexpected. Show me one UK focused business that isn't expecting worse results now that 2-3 months ago?! I think we've reached max bearishness for the UK market, time to buy some UK shares IMO.
Inflation elsewhere is going down, the S&P is in a bull market, not sure I share the pesimism about the British economy. Yes, we have 2-3% higher inflation than our neighbours probably due to higher wages caused by Brexit (that was one of the main motivations for the vote, wasn't it?) but that's about it. The rise in core inflation is mostly caused by higher housing costs, which is a short term side effect of rising rates. Once the effect of the rate rises kicks in (18 months), inflation will be gone. Whether the most predicted recession in history will actually happen or not is anybody's guess but my thinking is that we've seen the worst of it. Germany is in a recession, the UK officially avoided it and the US had 2 negative quarters last year so up to debate whether they haven't already been through it or not.
I think HOTC is down because people don't want to wait 1 year for results to improve. If we're patient we should do very well here!
What is happening in Japan Angus? Why no update. Clearly it can’t be pulling any trees up or Angus would not be predicting a loss.
Started: Polishcap, 23 Jun 2023 07:58
Last post: Polishcap, 23 Jun 2023 07:58
All
These 2 dinosaurs founders need to go
Done great to this point but have no clue onwards from here
Hotel choc should be a fevertree or myprotein. Or gymshark
Instead it's scrapping around with no real clue getting smashed on costs
Time for the founders to do the right thing
Last post: tom231, 23 Jun 2023 07:51
Frustrating but expected!? For me this update doesn't change the outlook of the business.
Another profit warning - not good - cash position is comforting however.
Could explain the profit warning.
Two big buys today of £140k each
I have thought this previously however there is one big difference. Warren Buffett isn't invested and he's not trying to sell the brand every AGM like he is/does Sees. I wouldn't underestimate the WB effect.
However if you judge HC on its own merits it, for me at least, is very investable. Don't forget the original founders own over 50+% of the company still. Its in their vested interest to succeed.
Any thoughts on the similarities and differences between See's Candies and Hotel Chocolat both as a business and as an investment?
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-dream-business-is-sees-candies-2019-7-1029916323#a-return-of-8000-1
Last post: tom231, 19 Jun 2023 11:46
This feels like a bargain now. I have its intrinsic value at c.£3 a share. Yes they've made some miss steps strategically but they have cash in the bank and + Free cashflow growth.
Started: cocoacocoa, 10 Apr 2023 09:56
Last post: tom231, 29 Apr 2023 08:17
It's fundamentally a very profitable business whose ambitions got a little too large. Angus and Peter (cofounders) have 37milllin reasons (a piece) to want to get it right. In their last company report they had share option incentive all the way up to £14 a share which may be unrealistic but is a measure of their ambition.
I have every confidence that they will recover. Trying to time the market is madness, your ideal hold time for a share should be forever.
I've been monitoring this share for a while with a view to entering at an opportune moment. However, the company never ceases to disappoint. Down 57% this year. As a 'growth' stock it's also down 57% over 5 years. They have started to (correctly) focus on the UK market rather than losing a fortune in the USA. In that latter respect, any person with some common sense could have told the management from the start that the USA's taste in chocolate is entirely different. Now, they seem to be struggling to get it right in the UK with ongoing supply issues. However, at some point this has to be a recovery play (ignore today's spike). Buy on weakness.
cocoacocoa, not sure how you knew that on Monday when the post-Easter sales actually started on Tuesday, 11th April. I was at one of their shops on Monday and it was packed, people still buying full-priced Easter chocs!
And actually the sales were pretty good. I've managed to spend 50 quid on Tuesday and I really had to restrain myself lol
It feels like they've overcorrected on the inventory front. Instead of having excess inventory that they need to sell at a discount post-season, they are running out of inventory far earlier than the actual event and likely missing out on sales completely. Most of their Easter range online was out of stock days/weeks before Easter. Full-price mix isn't a useful metric if it's simply due to not making enough product to last through the season.
Personally, I only started buying HC because of their post-season discounts, so it will be interesting to see if having an empty sales section will affect their custom.
Last post: LiveLif, 28 Apr 2023 14:49
SOmeone seems to like the Long term prospects