The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Just used it as a buying opportunity. I still like the fundamentals of the business. For me it's growing pains but we'll see I suppose. The risk I see I'd whether Angus is being too ambitious with his international aspirations when he's already cornered the domestic market.
Nasty update, back down below 150p I guess...
Whilst the share value remains perceptibly unchange the trade values to appear to be creaping up. I've invested heavily here. Feel like they've suffered from a strategic error but are fundamental a profitable business
cocoacocoa, not sure how you knew that on Monday when the post-Easter sales actually started on Tuesday, 11th April. I was at one of their shops on Monday and it was packed, people still buying full-priced Easter chocs!
And actually the sales were pretty good. I've managed to spend 50 quid on Tuesday and I really had to restrain myself lol
It feels like they've overcorrected on the inventory front. Instead of having excess inventory that they need to sell at a discount post-season, they are running out of inventory far earlier than the actual event and likely missing out on sales completely. Most of their Easter range online was out of stock days/weeks before Easter. Full-price mix isn't a useful metric if it's simply due to not making enough product to last through the season.
Personally, I only started buying HC because of their post-season discounts, so it will be interesting to see if having an empty sales section will affect their custom.
It's not incredibly bullish, but it mentions a target price of 275p. The analysis includes interesting reflections on the Japan fiasco and what to expect in the medium term.
I think that it is worth a read
https://moram.eu/hotel-chocolat/
Confirms the reset but worse than I was hoping for , unsure of how market will react.
according to lse there are generally more daily sells than buys- but the SP is ceeping up- so the single trades are having some effect... company controlled?
Why are their so so many single digit trades here every day, can't all be bots surely?
They do that now with there VIP card
Gazzle, even better for your missus would be a shareholder perk. A nice discount on purchases for holders would not go astray.
@Taverham they had previously been paying a modest dividend, back when the business was even younger. Admittedly I don't think it will be returning anytime soon, given recent events.
did my bit today, ok it was from the Xmas sales deal but hey I'm helping reduce inventory :)
Sax- no because this is a growth company investing cash in growing the business.
Does anybody think we will see a dividend this year
Results for the period are as predicted. I think they have underestimated the expected year profit for June 23 at £8m, I think it’ll be above that. Good to read predictions of 20% by 2025, that’s about £40m profit. Share price at £2 ish should continue to move up imo and no reason why it won’t be sitting at £4+ in a year or so…. The mcap is around £300m currently so plenty of room.. gl all!
Been a good few days and the market clearly likes the deal.
I didn’t state that comparison- I pointed out that shoppers are still out there willing to buy premium. It’s fine by me- there are a lot of us that continue buying quality chocolate products at retailers such as hotel chocolat, while other consumers are more price conscious and tempted to sift through boxes in other stores in search of something akin to brown emulsified lard…. You generally get what you pay for.
and you can't compare Harrods to Hotel Chocolat!....different target market!
You cant compare the products of HOTC to the centre aisle dump bins in lidl...HOTC has a very strong loyalty base, with over 85% vip customers returning for velvetiser products- I'd guess that 85% of lidl customers will have dumped their machine within 2 months of using it.. As for money in peoples pockets-I went to Harrods and Fortnum & Mason a few times in December and the stores were rammed with shoppers. The mid year trading update from HOTC did state they expect headwinds in 2023 so it wont be a surprise if another 40% yoy isn't achieved- but we are also a long way down from the £5+ of this time last year. I'm happy to hold and see how this year pans out.
So the press says. But like the Italian restauranter, whose business bloomed during the great depression, replying to a journalists question said, Depression?I don't know, I don't read the papers.
I wouldn't be so sure about that. They could've signed the JV before Xmas trading period and just waited until new year to release it. Next & B&M have reported solid xmas trading so far but they are at the value end and would've benefited from consumers trading down. In this environment I can't imagine many people paying £100 for a Velvetiser when you can get the same for £12.99 at Lidl! Perhaps I'll be proved wrong on the 18th Jan t/u but after a 50% bounce I'd be running for the hills ahead of what's likely to be a rough year for the UK consumer....
Yep, trading update should be around 18th Jan, and looking at other retailers who are reporting significant increases in the xmas trading run up this should be a good omen for HOTC. Obviously inflationary issues linger but we have Valentines & Easter to come- and chocolate is always a winner for those two!
Still moving nicely on up - a gap fill to ~£2.30 looks fairly likely at present, could go higher on a positive trading update of course...