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Good luck with the 70p likeitornot. For me the current share price has been far too tempting and as a consequence I have loaded up significantly in last few months.
I would have agreed with your statement regarding a share price 'premium' being placed on it if it was still at £5 but its not, it's just ovr £1.
My opinion remains that by the end of 2024 we'll this back close to £3 a share.
I suppose we'll find out who is right in the end.
Agreed. Not sure why they are trying to compete in this area. For me, HOTC do well in the gifting market not the food and beverage market. Alcohol yes, hot chocolate and takeaway coffees no.
Went into my local and tried the ice cream come. £3.49 for a small Mr Whippy by Hotel Chocolat.
Then crossed the street to McDonald's for a small McFlurry £1.49. Almost the same. Tried the coffee recently - not very special at Hotel Chocolat and rather small cup. McDonald's isn't special either but the prices are a world apart.
Can anyone advise what the small (
Yes, sorry. 2023 revenues expected to be around £200m compared to today's market cap of £141m. Zero profit. 2024 revenues expected to be below market expectations when they made the statement in June.
I have to say I really admire their branding and imagery which is really strong but in my mind investors have attached that same premium to the company's stock price historically which I don't think is justified today. Now sitting back and wishing for it drop into 70p territory which will make it much more realistic as an investment prospect compared to other shares out there.
Expected revenues at least 25% more than MC so not really a 1-1 ratio. However for me this isn’t the time to invest in the company. Like you I can see this heading further south in the short term. I reckon give it 12 months and I’ll be looking to get back in, all being well that is.
£158m market cap. 124 stores. So over £1m price tag per retail outlet if you look at it that way. Revenue to market cap also close to 1:1 which is toppy when you consider other UK specialist retailers of this size at the moment. So price still looks half full as opposed to half empty to me despite the recent declines. It will be interesting to see how their new store layouts perform - and also what the refit cost is per store vs additional income they expect to generate. Japanese strategy looks sensible and hopefully there will be more international expansion plans announced.
I have loaded up here. I appreciate the economy has change significantly but I have the intrinsic share value way way north of where this currently sits. I can see this back at £3 by the end of 2024. Patience is key.
In case you haven't watched the 20th Anniversary video yet, it's worth the time. A lot of it is marketing of course but they presented some new products that they are working on - new apple pie choc for the velvetiser, compote fruit dark chocs and a new crunchy type of chocolate bar. All looking really good. Also it was a chance to hear from another memeber of senior management and not just Angus.
The 2 dinosaurs are clueless
Activists needed and cavalry is coming
You’re probably right Dimi, but the near destruction for long term shareholders is painful! I have virtually zero faith in Angus rebuilding this. I’m noticing so many start ups selling chocolate that unless we get our act together we’ll be another retail casualty. I’ve doubled down 3 times over the past few years so no more cash to put in this until I see a major turnaround….. I’m beginning to Hope some USA outfit saves the day!
Tbh nothing unexpected. Show me one UK focused business that isn't expecting worse results now that 2-3 months ago?! I think we've reached max bearishness for the UK market, time to buy some UK shares IMO.
Inflation elsewhere is going down, the S&P is in a bull market, not sure I share the pesimism about the British economy. Yes, we have 2-3% higher inflation than our neighbours probably due to higher wages caused by Brexit (that was one of the main motivations for the vote, wasn't it?) but that's about it. The rise in core inflation is mostly caused by higher housing costs, which is a short term side effect of rising rates. Once the effect of the rate rises kicks in (18 months), inflation will be gone. Whether the most predicted recession in history will actually happen or not is anybody's guess but my thinking is that we've seen the worst of it. Germany is in a recession, the UK officially avoided it and the US had 2 negative quarters last year so up to debate whether they haven't already been through it or not.
I think HOTC is down because people don't want to wait 1 year for results to improve. If we're patient we should do very well here!
What is happening in Japan Angus? Why no update. Clearly it can’t be pulling any trees up or Angus would not be predicting a loss.
All
These 2 dinosaurs founders need to go
Done great to this point but have no clue onwards from here
Hotel choc should be a fevertree or myprotein. Or gymshark
Instead it's scrapping around with no real clue getting smashed on costs
Time for the founders to do the right thing
Frustrating but expected!? For me this update doesn't change the outlook of the business.
Another profit warning - not good - cash position is comforting however.
I have thought this previously however there is one big difference. Warren Buffett isn't invested and he's not trying to sell the brand every AGM like he is/does Sees. I wouldn't underestimate the WB effect.
However if you judge HC on its own merits it, for me at least, is very investable. Don't forget the original founders own over 50+% of the company still. Its in their vested interest to succeed.
This feels like a bargain now. I have its intrinsic value at c.£3 a share. Yes they've made some miss steps strategically but they have cash in the bank and + Free cashflow growth.
Any thoughts on the similarities and differences between See's Candies and Hotel Chocolat both as a business and as an investment?
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-dream-business-is-sees-candies-2019-7-1029916323#a-return-of-8000-1
It's fundamentally a very profitable business whose ambitions got a little too large. Angus and Peter (cofounders) have 37milllin reasons (a piece) to want to get it right. In their last company report they had share option incentive all the way up to £14 a share which may be unrealistic but is a measure of their ambition.
I have every confidence that they will recover. Trying to time the market is madness, your ideal hold time for a share should be forever.
I've been monitoring this share for a while with a view to entering at an opportune moment. However, the company never ceases to disappoint. Down 57% this year. As a 'growth' stock it's also down 57% over 5 years. They have started to (correctly) focus on the UK market rather than losing a fortune in the USA. In that latter respect, any person with some common sense could have told the management from the start that the USA's taste in chocolate is entirely different. Now, they seem to be struggling to get it right in the UK with ongoing supply issues. However, at some point this has to be a recovery play (ignore today's spike). Buy on weakness.
SOmeone seems to like the Long term prospects
I'm a lth with HOTC, and a fan of the company. Some terrible decisions by the bod in the past have cost dearly- and to see the SP back down to historical lows higlights those failings. We know retail is suffering and being hit with costs from all angles, but surely this has to move up from here. Stock inventory low and zero chance of a divi..... £2 by xmas '23 ?