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Someone is loading up here
Looking forward to seeing what's actually in the trading update.
Margins on some products may have been reduced to maintain customer loyalty.
Margins on some products may have increased to reflect supply/demand.
Sales of motoring consumables will be way up, not least because of the National Tyres takeover
Their network of outlets will indeed need to be rationalised as part of the integration. (No point having 2 stores in 1 town).
This company is building an impressive database that should have the likes of AutoTrader seriously concerned.
Their strategic market positioning is impressive - which is why I'm a long term holder and will continue as such, despite current market madness.
My guess on the trading update: Servicing numbers are steady but below inflation LFLs. Retail is soft and margins are falling. My guess is retail sales are down 2-3 % and margins down 6-8%. Input costs and overheads are eating into margins. Announce possible additional store closures...
Bojo, farage, Aaron fine, gove, and the #%*$¥€ that is reece mogg our amazing brexit opportunities have a great deal to answer for. Where are they now ffs you couldn’t make this up.
Ftse is down over 400 points and we have barely moved this week. This is going to explode soon imo
M
I think the main message is that the UK economy has a very, very tough year ahead and we are about to see a total arse for PM.
I am amazed that Panmure evidently does not understand what Halfords now does and how well it is positioned to benefit from current trends. They should be genuinely ashamed of such sloppy analysis and loose language.
As we move into harder economic times, people will increasingly 'make do and mend' rather than buy a replacement car.
They will also look for lower cost servicing and MOTs than those from their local franchised dealer.
They will prefer to have someone come to them to fit replacement tyres, saving on time and fuel.
They will also look for cheap/free transport, like cycling to work.
The UK's largest supplier of motoring and cycling products and services (Halfords) is very well placed to benefit from these trends.
Yes they do sell bikes, but that's now not their 'be all and end all'. They are so much more than just a retailer.
Please can we see something positive from the CEO on the 7th.
Yes Pianista I totally agree and I can see it being over 1.80 very shortly.
250 million pound profits in 6 years.
Valuation is currently half of nav
9p dividend
Automotive centres gaining huge amounts of business and now catering for electric vehicles
I can see a huge bounce it should never ever have got down here.
£1.50+? £2.00+ more like it, but it depends on what the market anticipates for the 20-week trading update for the period ending 19 August, due next week (7 September). That should be ok, but they'll obviously caution about the outlook, what business wouldn't right now?
Time to start the run back over £1.50 this market cap has fallen way way too far.
Panmure Gordon trimmed profit forecast from 67m to 59m ,current mcap 273m gives a pe of 5, Halfords forecast PBT of 65-75, PBT for 2020 FY was 57 gave EPS of 27, so all looks really good to me, manufactured move down possibly for stake building. 70% Revenue from motoring , 40% of that from servicing , consumers spending on vehicles more a necessity, even in economic downturn every one needs their vehicle. Panmure stated not to worry it's unlikely to go bust, wonderful analysis, what would we do without them.
Typo - in the last 5 years
Half of net asset value now and 250 million in profits and at least another 50 million net profit this year.
How the fook has the market cap hit here this is such a brilliantly run business.
I added more today.
Sports direct (vulture of the high Street) would only bid at 5p, or rather in bankruptcy.. Better option would be a private equity bid.. Money printing for them
Hardboy.
Does seem a bit mad I agree.
I think I'm right in saying Halfords sell more electric scooters than anyone else in the UK.
These, whether you like them or not are the future.
Get too and from work (say up to 10 miles away) for pennies.
Take your scooter on the train/underground as well.
Then we have electric bikes (I have one, it's fantastic).
I think Halfords are the nr. 1 seller of bikes in the Country.
Halfords are targeting servicing/repairing electric cars...............
If we have another covid, who will still be open?................
A lot going for them.
All IMHO.
The Net Asset value of Halfords is 254p per share. Companies trading below their NAV are usually making a loss. Halfords is profitable - yes staffing costs and input costs may be going up and squeezing margins, but they are still profitable.
Not sure what UK holidaymakers have been doing this year - with all the airport problems, and still COVID restrictions in many countries, and people worrying about future costs, there may have been a sizeable market of holiday makers staying ion the UK. This helps Halfords business.
As part of UK Government's Net Zero Strategy there was a firm Gov't commitment to double the amount of cycling in the country between 2013 & 2025 - haven't heard any updates on how they are doing (or how they are measuring it) but we should start asking our MPS for an update on progress, but obviously increasing in cycling will be good for Halfords business. The net Zero strategy also includes a commitment of £5b to support buses, cycling and walking in cities (not sure over what period) and they claim to have over 300 walking/cycling schemes already in progress. This has got to be good for cycle & cycling equipment sales.
The trouble is in the short term markets are in panic mode and not looking at fundamentals of businesses.
.
fall yesterday. News is the Government is going to legislate on electric scooters I have read. Quite when and what the implications are I have no clue. At least you will be able to legally use one!
So interesting to see the markets Gold Gem here HFD Hold On Long Term WOW.
hoping for 5-7% by close. Seems reasonable to me after the massive 16% sp drop yesterday.
All IMHO.
Lease payments due this year are no different from those due last year - the only "pressure" you have is from lower possible revenues from which to pay them - but that isnt any different than with anyone else ....and there is sufficient headway anyway
I half expect Director buys here. Seems quite likely IMHO after the 16% drop yesterday. If one or more do we should be looking @ 10% back IMHO.
All IMHO.
yesterdays 16% fall off a cliff.
Matt - I agree, "leasing pressures" is a red herring.
Pianista -
"However, I'm not sure what the "leasing pressures" are that Panmure are on about (I haven't seen their note). Maybe some of the lease payments are adjusted upwards for RPI?"
Looking at it again, I think I understand. The current leases will be on fixed terms, but around 7% or so of their leases will expire and need renewing every year (69 last year), so these could be effected by higher interest rates.
However, they have a great track record of reducing these costs in the past couple of years following a thorough review of their estates. Last year they renegotiated "69 Retail lease renewals at an average of 26% below existing rental levels". In addition, the increase in held over leases and the aging of the lease portfolio "has led to a lower interest charge in comparison to the rental payments".
In summary, I can see the "lease pressures" going down, rather than up. In summary of the summary, Panmure are talking out of their arse.
Before we know it