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Absolute madness.
IMO Panmure's mention of lease liabilities is just clutching at straws to justify following the SP down in their targets. Lease interest payments last year were £9m... how much is it going to go up by?
Halfords have plenty of cash, and are highly cash generative. Even taking the low end of consensus projections for FY23, that's PAT of £55m (PE less than 5.5). And it will only be up from there, we won't be in recession forever. Expect them to maintain their dividend at 9p (over 7%), with around 2x coverage. Looks hugely oversold to me... but if people keep selling, the share price still tanks. I guess it depends if you are investing or speculating.
Now I'm not sure why having looked a bit more.?
Seems extremely odd.
Share price today is only a third of the price last August.
Placing was done in December 2021 at 320p per share.
I use Halfords and it is usually a non-discretionary necessity purchase of a product or service. Really well run organisation with reasonable pricing. Some silly folk probably hit the wrong key and its doomsday. Do not worry, this will recover very soon.
as an obvious way to save money so I think the future looks good for Halfords.
I was also shocked EC and went looking for 'the RNS' immediately. Not looked at HFDs for a long time until today, but it appears to represent value at these levels.
Can only presume a large holder decided to dump the lot after the dividend.
Down 16% for HFD is quite amazing. If it were after results maybe!
It seems to be Pan G being behind the curve, but it also seems that the SP reacted to their update, in which case it might be that your BC's reacted to the SP, but the SP apparently is still reacting to your BC's.
I suspect in todays financial environment that there'll be no rapid substantial recovery in the SP, that's why for the moment I'm in and out of positions more frequently than Gemma Collins is in and out Greggs.
Poker
“Panmore just seem to have updated an out of date figure of 300p”
That’s the beancounters following the shareprice not the shareprice following the beancounters.
To save themselves from humiliation…
How often do you see that in uk markets!
I remember PG had Woolworths as a buy a few days before it went bust.
Yeah it’s all alright charging peanuts .. but then you pay peanuts & get monkeys (staff) .. they will never retain the good staff at what they pay .. then with the bad staff comes the loss .. bit of a circle with Halfords
I am surprised to see prices this low but I wouldn't be surprised to see it lower
Tranche 2 added at 1.29 what an overeaction. They are not called pan for a reason :-)
I work in the automotive sector and main dealers are being utilised less and less due to the colossal costs of labour of upwards of 100 an hour.
Most large leasing companies now channel maintenance via the likes of Halfords.
Nearly half of nav and they have not made a loss in 5 years.
I will keep on buying.
so am in @ 128.77
I’m increasing my holding at £1-50p
Where a broker not gets issued and the share price gets.
Peel Hunt seems to have cut Halfords today from 300p to 150p.
Why its about 15% less than even that I suspect we will never know.
Makes it appealing though and my eyes are on the vehicle side of the business and the electric vehicle side.
Not just private sector car leasing. The other squeeze is more general, the idea that you can have whatever you want whenevery you want has led to people adding more and more montly plans of 20 quid here 30 there to their outgoings. That side of things has always seemed crazy to me. Currently Sp is 128ish I have that as significant. It's bang on a low from july 2020. If the SP closes above that at the end of play friday, the drop might be over for now at least. I've not entered a position, but view this area as a speculative buy. Once I've resolved positions elsewhere (could be today), I'll be looking for evidence of the SP turning, I'll used stops below 128 and hope that there'll be some upside. Wider market weakness might make this a very feeble plan, but I only need a day of rises to make a profit.
A very difficult journey ahead for Halfords and for the UK. Supply side (cost) inflation that can't be cured with interest rate rises. Debt to GDP ratio of 95%, £2.4 trillion of debt, negative growth, high UK borrowing costs, nasty private sector debt hidden in car leasing, lots of contracting sectors (hospitality) = less VAT, crazy sector specific inflation (try building), and then you add Liz T to this. I like company and management team. If there were any sign of an end to the war I'll wade in. A few days ago I said 130s. Now looking like 110s. Market cap of £280m seems low.
iz T is going to blame the B of E and
bicycle sales were softening in the last update but they said they would continue to put up prices and believed the customers would pay the extra -
The leases have all been there for all to see , and you can see what leases payments are due over the next 2 years - so all they are doing is highlighting what was there all along - they dont have other debts so it is merely leases that they have to manage , really
They just paid out 6.6m on a dividend payment so it seems unlikely they would do that and then seek a fund raise !
Panmore just seem to have updated an out of date figure of 300p and come back into line and highlighted issues that everyone else already knows about
Nothing to see - really --
170p was overbought and now the market is being risk cautious and awaiting what the Government will do in September - help or let the economy sink
Let us have it for a quid lads
Finally got something sensible on sharecast. Target down from 300 to 150, that's a pretty big downgrade on their expectation that leasing pressures will significantly eat into profits. They even state they prefer to see greater visibility after the winter. I find it interesting that the autocentre side that was previously viewed by many as the stronger side of the business is now viewed by PG as too much in focus at the expense of retail. I'm surprised to be honest, I'd have thought the auto servicing side will be important through the winter and will not be significantly impacted by pressure on discretionary spending. I don't know how much of the electric market HFD's services. Also, discretionary spending pressure should increase spending on bikes/e-bikes/scooters. Seems like a huge drop to me and a possible opportunity at these prices. It's gone back on my watch list. I enter and exit based on charts and don't necessarily hold for long periods, but it's started to look very interesting again to me.
I see there is a Panmore note out, but am having to sign up for yet another site (MarketBeat). I do get tired of having to sign up for a new site everytime I need something. Anyone have a copy of the note? Normally, even when I sign up I can't access what I need and that might very well be the case for Marketbeat.
I have the last Broker note on May 22nd at 330 target, but that's clearly out of date.
It's been little while since I've been involved with HFD and I'm clearly behind the story. I saw todays drop, that made me check for an RNS (I didn't find one) so I started reading the thread. I'm not really finding what I need, although I have some questions that might be worth having answers to so thanks for those actively discussing. Could anyone tell me 1) what caused todays drop (I'm guessing a Pan G note) and 2) there's reference to a money raise, could anyone give me the detail of this?
Hope dementia not on the way:)
another mistake Toff
... think you meant ...."hope dementia hasn't arrived " :-)
Toff
Yes..not a bad business but as with any business, the pressure is on the profits and earnings - they cant enough trained staff for the vehicle service centres either and no doubt have to pay higher wages to attract enough applicants
I suspect some folks will just take their vehicle off the road soon - way too expensive to run say as a second family car -
share the main car - tough times needing cut backs
Should have read
I’m also glad I only took out a small position.
I can’t seem to write a post without mistakes these days. Hope dementia not on the way:)