Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Very low volumes, and large spread. Not surprising given everyone is waiting for another bid, from Hedin, or Lithia, or someone else.
The strange thing though is that it is holding so low - any bid would obviously be 29p+ if it comes (and nothing is guaranteed), so can anyone explain to me why it is holding 25% down from that? Is the market really not convinced that another bid will materialise?
Thanks for that grandma. That sounds fair to me.
Corriedog - Those are just the numbers for the transport side of the business. In total Revenue is up 557 to 665 (20 %), gross up 31 to 38 (22%), adjusted operating is up 11.5 to 14 (18%). Their reported profit is only up by 6%, but then PBT is boosted by the face that they've managed to pay down their debt and so reduce the finance costs (PBT up 23%).
In terms of the order book, they address that directly in the report in terms of where they are in the bidding cycles, which ties in exactly with what grandma has relayed from the presentation.
The tone doesn't seem too self-congratulatory to me, in fact they do seem quite reserved and are rightly focussing on stability in the near term - that's why there is no dividend.
If people look at these results and still think this is only a £100m Mcap (which obviously they do), then so be it - I don't think that will last forever.
Pianista -
"However, I'm not sure what the "leasing pressures" are that Panmure are on about (I haven't seen their note). Maybe some of the lease payments are adjusted upwards for RPI?"
Looking at it again, I think I understand. The current leases will be on fixed terms, but around 7% or so of their leases will expire and need renewing every year (69 last year), so these could be effected by higher interest rates.
However, they have a great track record of reducing these costs in the past couple of years following a thorough review of their estates. Last year they renegotiated "69 Retail lease renewals at an average of 26% below existing rental levels". In addition, the increase in held over leases and the aging of the lease portfolio "has led to a lower interest charge in comparison to the rental payments".
In summary, I can see the "lease pressures" going down, rather than up. In summary of the summary, Panmure are talking out of their arse.
Of course the G&A costs have gone up, that's inflation - utilities, back office salaries and consumables etc. that's the costs of doing business. What's relevant is that despite the inflationary environment they have maintained their operating margins. Looks like good management to me.
I'd also like to see a dividend, but I respect them being cautious with that. Maybe we'll see a final div at the end of the year if this trajectory is maintained.
Absolute madness.
IMO Panmure's mention of lease liabilities is just clutching at straws to justify following the SP down in their targets. Lease interest payments last year were £9m... how much is it going to go up by?
Halfords have plenty of cash, and are highly cash generative. Even taking the low end of consensus projections for FY23, that's PAT of £55m (PE less than 5.5). And it will only be up from there, we won't be in recession forever. Expect them to maintain their dividend at 9p (over 7%), with around 2x coverage. Looks hugely oversold to me... but if people keep selling, the share price still tanks. I guess it depends if you are investing or speculating.
I've seen fair value estimates of between 250 and 300 (Morningstar says 252.7).
Doesn't mean to say I'll hold all the way there, but I think it's got a long way still to go (but what do I know?).
On top of the "standing down" of chair of the Remuneration Committee, Mike Wright, on the 1st June this shows Hedin flexing their muscle.
Hopefully it gives management a wake-up call. It beggars belief that they can award themselves such a hefty payout, but not recommend a dividend! Completely unjustifiable after that 2021 performance. If not that, then hopefully it's a precursor to another takeover attempt from Hedin.
I agree. I would say it was good value before today, and it's still good value now.
But it's exactly because I'm not enough of a gambler to try and catch it at the bottom that I'd rather wait and let it settle first. I might miss out on a little of the bounce, but it's better that than try to gamble on catching the knife at the bottom and get my fingers burnt (if you'll excuse the mixed metaphors)
Wow! I only recently started looking at B&M, and I've been waiting to see what happens at the results. They look better than expected to me, and pretty positive vs a tough environment...
I'm just clearing some funds to buy-in, but waiting to see how low it goes today first. Commiserations to those already holding, but I wouldn't worry too much as I'm sure the SP will bounce back fairly soon once the kids have been shaken out.