Member Info for TobyHonest

Thanks for this thread - thought I'd better do some checking 'sharpish' as to whether Open AI will have an impact on S4 activity if they have challenges and discovered... S4 Capital’s approach combines Adobe and Google Gemini for the creative/text asset generation, Twelve Labs for understanding visual content context, and NVIDIA and AWS to scale up real-time delivery infrastructure—all stitched together by Monks.Flow.

So perhaps we should keep watching the financial results of S4, because due to confidentiality undertakings with their clients they can't shout too loud about every day's detail...

Thank you for posting the link to this really interesting conversation Nige.

SMS describes how they are achieving Faster, Better, cheaper for their clients and moving in the 'outcomes based' charging direction, rather than time and materials plus a margin.

Media planning, buying and personalisation at scale, together with the lower costs of production which are facilitated by AI.

My strongly held opinion is that he has read the direction the tide is moving and is swimming with it, rather than against it. While understanding that some traditional models still have their place.

The AI enabled tools S4 Capital employs are not so much replacing good quality original content, rather they are turbo-charging its capability.

And it's important to realise AI cannot do everything on its own: that would be like setting a speed boat off at full throttle with nobody behind the wheel.

- S4C is at the forefront with the knowledge of how to combine the right AI tools to garner the optimum results for their clients. IMHO

5 years ago the market was happy to pay over 20 times the current price that we're so pleased with.

OK so over 800 was a tad exuberant and needed to be pulled back somewhat. - But this level of discount at today's price IMHO is crazy.

Because now we can see the business model working in terms of real numbers, paying down the debt nicely with fabulous foundations for growth.

I see things continuing to move positively for a long time yet and don't think anybody has 'missed the boat' with a PE still well below 10.

Yes some will take profits along the way, but I'm going to keep holding as long as I can.

In my mind this investment has moved well away from being a gamble, so I don't need to wish GLA:

Cheers !!! 🥂

Aren't there rules against insider buying if there are any conversations going on... for example about a possible take-over? etc

SMS must be having all sorts of conversations right now, while waving a big Harvey Smith at his detractors and wearing an even bigger smile

Hats off to SMS for once.

These results look to me like he and his team are successfully building an agency business model fit for the AI era.

Will be interesting to see what M&A discussions pop up over the coming weeks & months.

My SIPP & ISA are both most grateful ;-)

What a nice morning this has been! - Can't beat a bit of good news!

- OK about time, but I genuinely feel it's finally happening for us LTH'ers.

And at this SP S4C is still an absolute bargain IMHO (DYOR yada yada)

Cheers SMS ;-)

Interesting conversation all

Reflecting on this, and my own previous comments, I hope we can agree that CMOs are really only interested in boosting their own bottom lines, and the key to achieving this is through driving lower average Cost Per Action while ramping up overall activity.

- In line with this, agency pricing models in my experience seem to be moving increasingly towards being Performance based.

So I for one am praying that the SMS Mantra of 'Better, Faster, Cheaper, More' is soon to be clearly demonstrated among existing clients, positioning S4C as a true leader in achieving impressive digital promotions performance.

If this is achieved, it will be the catalyst for client retention, development and new business wins that will halt income shrinkage, drive growth and see the share price achieve its true potential.

- Whether the invoices are calculated on time & materials, volume of outputs or % ROI.

Time for some good news client stories please.

Absolutely agree with you Charles. IMO SMS is quite right to keep sharing the news and at this price I've just added a few more . We're off to Istanbul for New Year - will raise a glass to you https://www.marketingweek.com/dismiss-ai-ads-winning-creative-effectiveness/?cmpid=em~newsletter~breaking_news~n~n&utm_medium=em&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=breaking_news

I can't help but get the feeling something's been missed here.

Chief revenue and AI officer Wesley ter Haar, had acquired 1.0m ordinary shares at an average price of 22.07p, for a total value of £220,727.93 about a month before the 'yes disappointing' results update. - He would obviously have known the direction of travel.

Looking at the latest RNS "As a result, we are changing our revenue model from a purely, time-based approach to one more based on outputs - i.e. use of assets."

What this says to me is Wesley has seen the transformative potential of shifting the revenue model from a time based one to an outputs based one and has put his own cash (and that of a friend via their shared vehicle) down realising what's possibly going to happen to the P&L.

So despite being 40% down thus far I've just added a few. If that makes me the sucker we'll have to see. Fingers crossed...

Today's share issue comes from the merge with TheoremOne in May 2022, so it is not exactly a surprise.

- And while this market reaction is indeed uncomfortable for the main holding today, it may offer a buying opportunity too.

Yes - I'm hanging on to my 350+ by Christmas target, despite that being a PT forecast (Pre Truss) so rather challenging timescales now thanks to her.
Though, in reality I hope that the net profit will be higher than £60m as they were backing 65-75 before announcing the takeover of Lodge Tyre (4.7m EBITDA to March 21 I believe) so should be capable of 80m, market cap potential at 800m.
So my 12m target is more like 450.
Regardless of how high is fair and how high is high, 210 is certainly low.

Makes good sense in my mind - buying £70m of market share and dominating in the B2b replacement tyre market.
The strategic conversion from high street cycle seller to multi-site motoring products and services is going well and hedges against margin pressure from a volatile Sterling - you've got to have tyres etc, almost whatever the price - so good strong defensive stock at a low PE (just got lower) - what's not to love?

Back to £3.50+ is my target by Christmas IMHO (was there a year ago)

Thank goodness I held on throughout!
Well done to all fellow long term holders.
Panmure should issue a sincere apology for the rubbish they recently spouted.

Looking forward to seeing what's actually in the trading update.
Margins on some products may have been reduced to maintain customer loyalty.
Margins on some products may have increased to reflect supply/demand.
Sales of motoring consumables will be way up, not least because of the National Tyres takeover
Their network of outlets will indeed need to be rationalised as part of the integration. (No point having 2 stores in 1 town).
This company is building an impressive database that should have the likes of AutoTrader seriously concerned.
Their strategic market positioning is impressive - which is why I'm a long term holder and will continue as such, despite current market madness.

I am amazed that Panmure evidently does not understand what Halfords now does and how well it is positioned to benefit from current trends. They should be genuinely ashamed of such sloppy analysis and loose language.
As we move into harder economic times, people will increasingly 'make do and mend' rather than buy a replacement car.
They will also look for lower cost servicing and MOTs than those from their local franchised dealer.
They will prefer to have someone come to them to fit replacement tyres, saving on time and fuel.
They will also look for cheap/free transport, like cycling to work.
The UK's largest supplier of motoring and cycling products and services (Halfords) is very well placed to benefit from these trends.
Yes they do sell bikes, but that's now not their 'be all and end all'. They are so much more than just a retailer.
Please can we see something positive from the CEO on the 7th.

You may find that a high proportion of the leases are for the vans which visit customers' homes and do servicing/fit tyres etc.
So rather than being a drag on cash flow, they're actually a highly tax efficient variable cost, so long as the fleet is being run efficiently and each operative is making a healthy contribution.