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We all know that it was due to covo, but do think it was also to agree numbers etc as in the Licencing agreement
Think they were probably in the finalisation phase of that, before covo hit
Either way, Vlad is writing cheques and taking holidays all while Eli are starting up Clinical trials and we are days from the end of that extension. Wait must be nearly over :-)
In reply to Digitt´s question as to the success rate of pre-clinical drugs, I have found this article from Reuters. Seems general success rate is 1 in 10 across the board, dropping to 1 in 20 for oncology. Better odds than I thought, but not an all eggs in one basket investment for me. As always dyor.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pharmaceuticals-success-idUSTRE71D2U920110214
Nobody has ever disagreed with the fact that lots of drugs fail at the end, Hemogenyx because of their humanised mice are at a distinct advantage here, but regardless nobody has ever guaranteed that CDX will definitely make it to market.
It does not matter, it has a very good chance, and if you look at lots and lots of comparisons of some what comparable licencing agreements with pre clinical or phase 1 licencing agreements the patent holder gets millions in up front payments, sometimes billions, here its more likely to be 10's to maybe 100m or so.
THAT payment will blow the MCap away. Everyone is so focused on 2-3 years down the line.
Eli Lilly are willing to invest and take the risk and if it fails it fails, they dont ask for a refund.
In the mean time Hemo have funded HEMO-CAR-T, Covid 19 test, ALL antibody, Covid 19 antibodies etc.....
If you hold it through to take over or past phase 3 trials and it DOES get to market.....
Heres a funny....whats the odd of Vlad getting an RNS or a few RNS's out in the next 15 days counting today!! :-)
Solow, thanks very much, very helpful.
Bogyo - I seem to recall you saying you work in a giant pharma...do you have any insight to offer on success rates for pre-clinical pharma trials?
Agree chances are likely higher, but trying to calibrate as everyone talks as if so much is practically a foregone conclusion. Chances are higher, so does that mean a 3 in 10 chance?
I've been in the share 3 years or so...wouldn't fancy having to wait another 2, but perhaps that's how long we might have to wait to have any chance of the $bn valuations others have been touting.
A lot of the recorded drug failures happen pre-clinical.
Reasonable numbers once you get to clinical trials.
Phase 1 to 2 biomarker Clinical trial success rate.
- Oncology, Non bio marker 28%, bio marker 43.5%
- Autoimmune non 38.9% v bio 55.6%
- Infectious diseases 39.7% v 66.7%
Phase 2 to 3
- oncology non 17.4% v bio 38.8%
- Autoimmune 25.4% v 35.7%
- Infectious diseases 34.7% v 44.4%
Thanks Pingu - very informative.
Who do you think you are referring to people as "my lovely", do everyone a favor and get lost.
She said to her lover in this forum . may be one of you in here who know!
Ok hun. Why are you invested in a junior biotech if you don’t think it’ll hit a pound? They’re not 5% a year managed funds.
A lot of good stuff gets posted on here by knowledgable posters. It just gets ruined and glossed over by drivel from other types of poster like you pumper. Be nice if you could contribute something useful for us. I’m sure everyone would be pleased to hear your insight. The floor is yours.
Tell me more about scannell pumper. What are they working on and who’s been kept alive for five years? Xx
Maybe pump is from the south west. Nothing wrong with my lovely, my ansum