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Looking at the possible capital funding for HARL that we know of I am making the following ASSUMPTIONS on when they are likely to be seen.
SOWEC £270m investment - Daniel Fearney said on LinkedIn responding to a comment from a real troublemaker ‘unfortunately not, we are in the process but there is no current timeline to news of success.’ And if there was a timeline he would know. That said I am inclined to the view that a decision will be needed sooner than later. As HARL would need to start on these improvements soon if they are to be ready in time for contracts in relation to Scotwind. I am therefore expecting this funding being improved this year.
Debt Refinancing £200m Loan - This saga has been dragging on but I am expecting a resolution in late Q2 or early Q3. My reasoning is that once we have a decision from the NICA on the appeal then a value on IM can be placed on it on the basis that it will be going ahead.
So this year HARL should see investment/loans coming in of £470m gross and £367m net of existing debt based on an exchange rate of 0.81 and fees. This level of investment is on the par with the investment being put into their facilities by BAB and Bae.
Ho Stokey12
Regarding funding, there is absolutely no connection and therefore no dependency on IM.
That was obvious to me reading all the documentation. I also discussed this with the board as certain posters insisted and this was confirmed. Therefore your timelines based on this are totally wrong ( penultimate para of 6.47 post) message them for conf.
I don't understand your final paragraph , are you adding the incoming loan to the potential Sowec investment and ignoring the 77mm million investment. The potential investment is 347 million STG. The loan is an entirely separate matter. Apologies if I'm misunderstanding, I just can't make any sense of it.
Hi Kaeren,
I think there is circumstantial evidence, or it may as you say be coincidence. In any event Its difficult to put too much weight on what the BoD say, given their constant missed timelines on the refinance deal.
certainly a potential asset the size of IM must be in the calculation somewhere in the refinance structure. Its like valuing your house and you have an acre of land with it that's ownership is in dispute. The re-mortgage would likely be held off until resolved given the size of the loan requested.
Probably too simplistic, however it does have the merit of (to me) of being "obvious" so I would be of the view that the two are intimately entwined.
Kaeren ref 07.55 post With regards to IM I largely agree with you whether the loan is obtained is not dependent on the decision of the NICA. However IM is part of the security that is being provided so if its value is altered by the NICA decision that may be relevant. I am curious what the documentation you have read that you referred to in your post is.
Your calculation of the potential investment is with respect wrong as you appear to have taken out the loan but added in the £77m. However, the £77m investment is not all coming in this year some would have been used last year in relation to the increase to the fabrication building and probably other works. When it comes to the debt financing it needs to be remembered that the existing debt is in USD while the new funding is in GBP so has to be converted into GBP before being deducted from the gross investment. I note that my calculation gives an investment figure £20m greater than your figure.
Sorry, not a.morning person at all , I.missed out the word Judgement after IM.
The docs are every piece in the public domain that relate to our UKEF loan.
Stokey , sorry I'm not wrong re numbers. Investment in versus loan. No time stipulation.
Is not the UKEF security/backing the most important element of the loan? Don't see why IM even comes into it.
Lottie123 ref 08.30 post I agree with you but my understanding is that IM will make p part of the security for the loan. As far as I am aware in addition to the UKEF guarantee the lenders wanted additional security. However that was when we were looking at an 80% guarantee. Now that it is a question of a 100% guarantee this may have changed. If additional securityn is no longer required what effect will this have on the assets of HARL
Although it could certainly benefit the yard at Arnish, should you factor in that the £99m earmarked for the "Stornoway Offshore Wind Hub" is in a partnership with the Stornoway Port Authority and not just H&W.
Plus, how many times can they spend the same £77m? Must have spent it ten times over the amount of time it's mentioned. JW said on one of the interviews that £25-£30m of it was being used for some panel robot assembly thingy.
Stokey. They are the companies assets. End of. Think this is all confusing the positivity. Relax all and enjoy the ride.
Si_Derman ref 08.51 post Until this story came out I had not heard about the Stornoway Offshore Wind Hub. I presume thaat it lies somewhere between Arnish Point and the Stornoway Deep Water Terminal. I suspect that the £99m is all for HARL and Stornoway Port Authority funded the Deep Water Terminal. At then risk of the thread going off on a tangent one thing puzzles me the reference to work on a quay would I be right in thinking that this is close by HARL Arnish?
Yes exactly Lottie. I too shall leave it there , it is not complex to comprehend.
IM has to be included as part of the security package as I can't otherwise see where £200m of security is coming from.
Financing is waiting on the IM outcome. One will follow the other as sure as night follows day.
Twib, can i ask where you got the information regarding a security package of £200m.
It, or similar (net zero energy hub), have been on the cards as long as the Deepwater Terminal project.
But you "suspect" it's all for H&W. Is that not similar to assuming, which you don't do. :)
Like a lot of stuff on here, it need some clarification.
The other point to make re IM is that if the appeal gets dismissed the value attributed to the asset will be higher and therefore the margin over SONIA will be reduced. Win win.