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What I like about most is the LTIP programme, fully aligned with shareholders. JW CEO and Arun CFO are essentially granted options that total 10% of the company's share capital. 35% of those options are granted the following share prices reach the following:
2023: Share price must average at least 37.50p.
2024: Share price must average at least 46.88p.
2025: Share price must average at least 58.60p.
Another 35% is awarded if:
Half are awarded if the share price averages at least 60p for 60 days.
The remaining half if the share price averages at least 100p for 60 days, both achievable any time up to the end of 2025.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HARL/long-term-incentive-plan-ltip-mn8y456rssgtggx.html
These targets are very much aligned to what we shareholders want... so I believe the structure and incentives are there for JW and Arun to do what they can to achieve share price of 37.5p-100p. If achieve 100p, they essentially awarded 10% of the company.. sounds alright to me.
12 months from December 29th isn't September. Of course no one knows, but I would be surprised if we have enough cash coming in to make it to the end of this year without either the finance deal or a loan increase with Riverstone. So no not clear cut this year or bankruptcy, there are other options. Either way I'm not concerned as I don't expect we'll be waiting until Q3 for finance nevermind the end of the year.
@Wyn - nice TA and insights. where the price could decrease to your estimates of 11.75p, representing a potential loss of 1.25p. But for a potential reward of re-rating to for instance 17.75p. The Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1.25 / 4.75 ≈ 0.263x. If my calculations are correct, would that be a reasonable assumption u think?
Seems a good enough bet. But of course i am optimistic about surpassing the initial target of 17.75p in the long term. IMO DYOR
Xenor ref 14.31 post I am not aware of any information that supports the contention that HARL would go bankrupt if the UKEF funding is not in place by September.
Are we really using Chat GPT for investing research now? 😂
I guess the lower end of that (June) won't be too far off. But the company would go bankrupt before it reached 12 months.
Https://splash247.com/qatar-inks-worlds-largest-single-shipbuilding-order-in-china/
Middle Eastern liquefied natural gas (LNG) producer QatarEnergy has signed a contract with China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) for the construction of 18 supersize LNG carriers
Qatar’s LNG shipbuilding programme is the largest of its kind in the history of this sector, with 104 conventional newbuilds already firmed up under long-term charter contracts with multiple shipowners. The ships will support Qatar’s expanded LNG production capacity from the country’s North Field and Golden Pass in the US while meeting long-term fleet replacement requirements.
The latest series of Q-Maxes will cost about $6bn in total, QatarEnergy said. Shipowners in line, suggested by the industry sources, include Nakilat, which should take half of the orders, with the rest going to Chinese players.
Has left port.
Tried dummy buys/sells this morning. They're buys.
Should some of these trades be showing as buys? , sell price appears to be going up on some of these trades
73p sounds good Twib 😂
Falklands contract 18p
IM 25p
Financing 30p
Fg , quite possible at some point imho
Stokey yes would hope it will be paid in interim payments over that period , bearing in mind this is only one of harls contracts the thought of them going bust appears somewhat distant, 200 million contracts in the pipeline and tendering for more I would think plus IM and Falklands contracts very close to being completed
IMO we will move from 13p to 26p, without warning, over the space of a few minutes.
The question is. When?
GLA
Bubble2021 ref 13.31 post What we do not know is what stage payments are payable under the manufacture sub contract between HARL and Navantia. It is a seven year contract for around £750m so I would not expect HARL to have to wait until the end of the contract to be paid.
Hi CI, yes it is a tricky call. I take more notice of the RSI when it hits 80 so from my experience there is still a good chance of further upward movement from here.
I I'm sure you can see it went to 13p and had a small retrace before closing back at 13p over the weekend. At the moment it a possible double top may form but even if that came to pass, a fall to around 11.75-12p would seem all it would go to.
My best guess is that it will rise rather than fall from here to at least 13.5p or 14-14.25p and then that would be RSI toppy and could well retrace to 13.p from there as that would in all this guesswork, be a support line.
Anyway good luck, (and we all need a shed load in this game!)
The amount of money being pumped into infrastructure at harls yards in particular from navanta 77-100 million doesn’t suggest that they would go bust in fact I think navanta may pump more money in as we approach first steel cut for FSS contract imho
Ref 13.17 post the first line should read I did not say that all the £300m+
Yes I've topped up today although from technical analysis perspective, the RSI is still showing signs of overbought. RSI around 70... so one could argue that it is very risky to top up now but I think at 22mil market cap, the down side is limited unless it goes bust. However, I think quite a lot of news in the pipeline so this could drive higher and also risk not to be holding when refinancing news can be imminent as Xenor mentions. IMO,DYOR.
Compoundinterest ref 12.53 post I did not say that the £300m+ was coming from SOWEC that figure comprised of Export Development Guarantee Funded Loan of £200m less $115m existing debt which is being paid from it. At today's exchange rate that would leave around £108m. Plus £270m investment funding this would come from SOWEC in whole or in part. How any shortfall in the investment element will be covered I am not sure. It is possible that a JV may be formed to develop either or both of Arnish or Methil.
Xenor…never ,compoundinterest like those figure good opportunity to top up well done👍
Xenor - ideally deal to be imminent. In reality, such a massive deal involving the government is going to take time especially controversy around 100% guarantee considered as a "bailout" government too politcal and move too slowly.. interesting read about this topic: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ministers-accused-backdoor-bailout-harland-wolff-8xtfmfdb8
ChatGPT's take on the timeline:
Given the stages outlined (ministerial approval, independent assessment, firming up bank syndicates, and final approvals), and comparing to similar cases in corporate financing under government guarantee schemes, a likely timeline could span from 6 to 12 months. If starting in January 2024 with the independent assessment, a reasonable guess might be that the loan could be finalized around mid to late 2024, possibly around June to September 2024. This is speculative and assumes that there are no unforeseen delays or complications.
The entire SOWEC budget is GBP 500 million of which includes 45 projects that applied to the SIM. 10 priority projects identified. Other category is progress projects and there are 19 which includes Harland and Wolff.
£500m budget from SOWEC is for all the 45 projects, of which Harland is only considered as a progress project (Not priority projects ) so I am not sure if the entire £300 million will be coming from SOWEC since that's most of the budget. I guess JW proposed this idea to SOWEC whether they accept or allocate how much of the budget is yet to be confirmed and quite early I believe. Still early stages and lacking a lot of details but good step in the right direction. IMO, DYOR
500m budget- https://www.offshorewind.biz/2024/01/25/offshore-wind-projects-worth-gbp-500-million-move-forward-in-scotland/
45 projects - https://www.offshorewind.biz/2024/04/02/sowec-expands-priority-list-adds-seven-projects-to-sim-funding-round/
Since when did Hebridean9 make posts based on facts?
This from the BBC https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-68918348 I am not sure if this will affect the funding of SOWEC as the Scottish Executive is one of the partners in SOWEC.