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Started: Kheldar, 21 Jun 2024 23:01
Last post: slig2, Today 01:02
I'm unsure why buybacks are causing concern, whether cancelled or not? Won't the buying of shares contribute to buying volume and potentially an increase in share price?
Many funds and private investors alike buy shares, but not for the purpose of cancellation. What is it I don't understand?
Kheldar. Don't know why that's a shooting the messenger issue, SOMO have been an option since the start, and legitimised contracts will do wonders for the SP, or even attract outside interests in GKP. Appreciate there's a big gap on terms yet and as I'm only a latecomer here happy to be contradicted!
Rudaw: What were Ambassador Payt's views on the recent meeting between Erbil and the oil companies with the Iraqi Oil Ministry?
Miles Cagins: Ambassador Payette said he was pleased to see the tripartite meeting to resume oil through the Turkey-Iraq pipeline, but he was aware that other discussions had to be held. The Ambassador is well aware of the Iraqi energy sector, including the Kurdistan Region; He also mentioned his recent visit to the Kurdistan Region where he saw the important level of oil investment and oil companies, and saw government officials and businessmen working on the development of the gas and oil sector in the Kurdistan Region. Regarding the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline, Ambassador Payet said that this pipeline is important for Iraq's energy independence as well as for the global energy market; Therefore, the United States will continue to encourage Baghdad to quickly resolve the issue of oil exports through the pipeline, he said it is important to have another trilateral meeting between the Iraqi Oil Ministry, the Kurdistan Regional Government and international oil companies.
Rudaw: If I ask you my last question. What is Epicurus' position on oil exports through SOMO?
Miles Cagens: Epicor agrees with the Kurdistan Regional Government, as recently announced after the Council of Ministers meeting that selling oil directly through SOMO and exporting through the port of Ceyhan is the best option to resolve the Iraqi-Turkish pipeline problem Advance or deposit in a third party account as a guarantor and independent banking party or similar financing by payment of oil barrel shares from Jayhan Port. This arrangement can be made between SOMO and international companies; This is the best option to quickly resolve the issue of oil exports through Iraq-Turkey
Https://www.rudaw.net/sorani/business/210620242
Rudaw - Washington
Epicure agrees to sell oil through SOMO and makes three proposals to resolve the payment of the companies' financial entitlements.
The proposals are as follows: first, by paying the money at the beginning of oil exports; The second is by depositing money in an independent bank account as a guarantee. The third option is that the Iraqi government can give the companies their shares in the form of barrels of oil in the port of Jayhan instead of money.
On Friday 21-06-2024, the US Chamber of Commerce organized a meeting for a number of US oil companies, including those operating in the Kurdistan Region, with Geoffrey Payet, US Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources.
The meeting was attended by Miles Caggins, spokesman for the Kurdistan Petroleum Industry Association (Epicur) and Matthew Zeiss, vice president of HKN; Part of the meeting was devoted to the issue of oil in the Kurdistan Region and the problem between Erbil and Baghdad and companies.
"Ambassador Pite explained to the executives of US oil and gas companies that the United States is committed to working with Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government to help Iraq have a strong energy sector," Caggins told Rudaw after the meeting.
"Ambassador Payte emphasized the resumption of oil exports through the Turkish-Iraqi oil pipeline," Cagins said.
"Epicure agrees with the Kurdistan Regional Government that selling oil directly through SOMO and exporting it through the Ceyhan port is the best option to resolve the Iraqi-Turkish pipeline problem," he told Rudaw.
Rudaw reporter Diyar Kurda's questions and answers with Epicurus spokesman Miles Caggins:
Rudaw: They met with Ambassador Payet today and the Chamber of Commerce. What was discussed between you and Baghdad about your problems and the oil problem between Erbil and Baghdad? Were there any positive signs from that meeting?
Miles Caggins: Today in Washington, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce hosted a meeting hosted by Ambassador Geoffrey Payette, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources. At today's meeting, Ambassador Payet explained to the executives of US oil and gas companies that the United States is committed to working with Iraq, with the Kurdistan Regional Government to help Iraq have a strong energy sector; This is a priority for the Sudanese prime minister and the Biden administration to make Iraq energy independent. The goal is for Iraq to become energy independent by 2030; Ambassador Payet stressed the resumption of oil exports through the Turkish-Iraqi oil pipeline. There is also a view in Epicure that international oil companies were happy to be invited to participate in the trilateral meeting in Baghdad. We believe that these discussions should continue to resolve the issues.
Rudaw: What were Ambassador Payt's views on the recent meeting between Erbil and the oil companies with the Iraqi Oil Ministry?
Started: R2D2., 21 Jun 2024 22:22
Last post: R2D2., 21 Jun 2024 22:22
Been here 12 plus years ....lots of T..ts on this board🙋♂️ however bring on a takeover 2Billion min........
Started: Invstrat, 21 Jun 2024 15:46
Last post: rogthegamer, 21 Jun 2024 17:18
On one hand complimenting GKPs senior management on their work and our returns in very difficult circumstances in a very difficult and dangerous part of the World. On the other hand issuing criticism for a salary and bonus package that will be far lower than the bosses of a British supermarket.
A) Are we selling oil locally - knowing that it will be illegally exported ?
There may be repercussions further down the line from this.
B) Was there a vote taken to hold future buybacks ‘in treasury’ ?
I think we need to watch this Old Dodge carefully and scream when it is triggered - we all know in whose pockets these treasured shares will end up in.
Started: Jenslehman, 21 Jun 2024 17:15
Last post: Jenslehman, 21 Jun 2024 17:15
Well one will enjoy this little divi..
Thank you gkp. I'll raise a rattler to you
Last post: Victor384, 21 Jun 2024 16:37
Started: schlemiel, 21 Jun 2024 12:39
Last post: Just-Another-Bot, 21 Jun 2024 15:13
I'm a double numpty, just found the webcast on the GKP website 🙄
I'm a numpty and didn't realise I had to register to attend online today, did anyone get the answer to what the BOD thinks are the possibilities when the pipeline contract comes to an end next year?
The dividend resumption and buy back has been instigated by GKP's optimism that exports could be back up and running in the not too distant future?
just a thought
Started: sjward, 21 Jun 2024 14:28
Last post: Just-Another-Bot, 21 Jun 2024 14:41
Share price currently 0.18
"sjward
Posted in: VAST
Posts: 26
Price: 0.34
No Opinion
Daz20 Jan 2020 17:50
Get in tomorrow mate. Finance news and the big diamonds news in pipeline. Volume going up big and all technicals pointing upwards. After being cynical this morning I must admit I finally got in at 0.32p for 1M shares. Go with the flow. All the way to 0.55p even before diamonds news. Gla"
Uncovering the Companies Involved in Kurdistan's Illicit Oil Trade with Iran and Turkey
This report, published in Kurdish by Erbil's Bwar News website, exposes the major players and staggering profits involved in smuggling crude oil from the Kurdistan Region to Iran and Turkey.
For months, four companies have been illicitly transporting over 700 tankers laden with 160,000 barrels of crude daily across borders into these neighboring countries.
Powerful local business conglomerates have established dedicated front companies to facilitate this underground oil trafficking operation from Kurdistan's fields:
• In Erbil, Makal (affiliated with KAR Group) receives crude from Khurmala in Erbil operated by Forza, exporting it through Haji Omeran and Ibrahim Khalil border crossings.
• Pator smuggles oil from Erbil and Duhok into Iran through Sulaimani province via Bashmakh and Parwizkhan borders - For each tanker to pass into the PUK zone, a charge of $300-360 per tanker is applied.
• Unicode (tied to Lanaz Group) transports Duhok's crude to Iran and Turkey.
• Hydrocarbon Company (linked to Qaywan Group) trafficks fuel from Sulaimani and Koya into Iran.
Once in Iran, Kurdistan's oil is funneled to ports like Bandar Imam, Bushehr and Bandar Abbas, where specialized facilities prep the crude for global export.
While most goes to Iran, portions also reach Turkey, with a portion sent to the Tüpraş Batman refinery and the remainder to the Antakya and Mersin refineries.
Oil producers sell to these trafficking firms at cut-rate $28-$33 per barrel, which resell at $60 - a $25 discount to global prices, netting immense profits.
Specifically, DNO, Genel Energy, Taqa, and HKN sell oil at $31.50 per barrel in Duhok province, while Forza, Khurmala, Ain Zala, and Sufaya sell at $32 per barrel, and Sheikhan oil is sold at $28 per barrel.
These oil producers sell between 200,000 and 250,000 barrels daily to the four companies and domestic refineries, generating over $200 million monthly for producers like DNO, Genel, Taqa and HKN. But the real windfall is for the smuggling companies, raking in around $150 million each month.
Started: schlemiel, 21 Jun 2024 07:56
Last post: PUTUP, 21 Jun 2024 13:47
EDIT: "can't simply look"
"This was trading at £3 when oil was going through the pipeline but you think £2 is fair value? "
Fair value for 48k production and a ratified contract with current terms
What was the cost of Brent then? Much higher
Were they paying a discount for KBT then? No
Have they paid capital OUT of the company since then in the form of dividends and, lately, buybacks? Yes
Were expected volumes higher then vs now? Yes
Was field capacity higher then versus now? Yes
Are risks higher now than then? Yes
You can simply look at the historical price and ignore context
@putup “volume in June disappoints.
- uptick in price by $1 is good but not enough to offset drop in volume “
The reason for the volume in June was lack of truckers due to Eid.
Buybacks, interim dividend (5.4p) with promise of more dividends but what keeps you up is the volume in June 😂
“keep my £2 year end fair value estimate (£1.48 ex receivables) predicated on a return to exports and full recovery of receivables (both of which look vulnerable to revision).”
This was trading at £3 when oil was going through the pipeline but you think £2 is fair value? If the pipeline opens the terrain will have changed and we will be in uncharted territory. The pipeline opening means a recognition by Iraq of gkp and that alone will add £s to the price. All dependent on concessions made by gkp.
Atb to all shareholders
"I keep my £2 year end fair value estimate "
Cum dividend price. Ex div estimate will rate downward by dps.
Re fundamentals
- volume in June disappoints
- uptick in price by $1 is good but not enough to offset drop in volume
- volumes to be further affected by required work at PF 1
- cash balances as expected/modeled
Nothing else of note
I keep my £2 year end fair value estimate (£1.48 ex receivables) predicated on a return to exports and full recovery of receivables (both of which look vulnerable to revision).
Started: schlemiel, 21 Jun 2024 11:13
Last post: PUTUP, 21 Jun 2024 12:18
2024 LTIP approved...by 99% of votes. 😳
Started: rogthegamer, 21 Jun 2024 11:27
Last post: Unwin, 21 Jun 2024 11:52
Hey, no worries. My risk profile changed, that’s my story. I was heavily down at one point and averaged in lower like you. I might be back yet though!
Good luck anyway
No Unwin I’m not calling you a liar Apologies if it came across that way. What I did say was that you sold @146. You then backed that up with reasons. Fair enough because you announced what you did at the time, which is honest compared to all of those that announced what they did (probably) later
Personally, like you, I announced what I did at the time. Unlike you , as a buyer @ 89 and 95. my fist purchases however were @ 146 + and in that respect my patience is still required
ah, so you’re calling me a liar rog.
what makes you think i sold when the shares were 134?
i took a chance expecting a fall on the agm. it didn’t work out, ho hum life’s a ***** sometimes.
my patience ran out, well done to those who made a few quid.
i’m evens with my shirt and i can’t be ****d with the stress anymore.
If there’s two words that I’ve posted here over and over again since my first purchase of GKP shares alongside my very first post on here shortly after the pipeline closure, they were “Patience Required” today it’s looking more like Patience Rewarded, that said the shares were trading between 220 and 320 when I first took an interest. Surly those levels are back on the agenda.
Re. The losers No. one being Itzanidiot who never had the balls to buy because he claimed GKP were heading towards 90p As for ‘Unwin’ claiming to have sold on a recent high of 146 (when the shares were 134ish. ) ‘ Unwon’ seems more appropriate.
Last post: Victor384, 21 Jun 2024 11:16
Started: rogthegamer, 21 Jun 2024 08:30
Last post: johnnybegood80, 21 Jun 2024 10:24
Jonnybegood
(LOL) No apology. Not man enough ?
Calling me a person that complains. No, quite the reverse because I’m blessed in life. So much so that I could afford to put my money where my mouth was when I continually said that GKP was a buy and said here “Patience Required”
A ‘Jonny’ was something that I used in my youth. FFS literally!
I also asked about the possibility of a substantial increase in size of tankage. Even the really large tanks are not terribly expensive, and its almost a case of use it just once and its paid for itself. Plus could hire out ullage to other companies.
Just take recent report, where due to holiday tucking availability a bit short, then couple it to a forthcoming shutdown for maint. Would enable steady full production to be continued.
LOL
Jonnnybegood
That is an insult
I have maintained a positive stance on GKP when so many others were pessimistic.
With regards to the buyback And as I said before with the purpose in part being to increase a share price that the company said was significantly undervalued why reduce buying when the price increased a little. Now it has increased further therefore it was a mistake. That is a fact NOT a complaint. Please apologise.
Rogthegamer, still complaining? FFS!
Blue horse shoe loves GKP!
Started: Jxp101, 21 Jun 2024 09:40
Last post: Jxp101, 21 Jun 2024 09:40
World War III could make this into a £10bn company. I hold 80,000 shares. All purchased during Covid-19 for 75p. Love GKP.
Last post: belgrano, 21 Jun 2024 09:32
Certainly not a day to be short, or out. Feel sorry for those investors who jumped in the 140's. At least they do have a re-joining opportunity even if a little more expensive. just put it down to experience. Very happy with the unexpected dividend and reward for staying loyal.
Straycat
That's superb analysis. Posters like you on sites like this are invaluable from which we can garner an insight into how management actually think and how they operate
Many thanks
Love the $15m interim dividend now we’ve got the FCF to afford it.
‘interim’ suggests more to come based on current GKP projections…
Modelling @ 48k bopd and $28/bbl for the rest of the year there will definitely more space for additional shareholder returns.
For sure.
And there’s still ca. $5m to spend on cancellations.
That’s not the problem.
The problem is the next buyback phase.
Is it for cancellation or Treasury?
If it’s for cancellation then those shares are gone forever unless ‘in extremis’. Which would require another share issue, and none of us Plebs want that. And very unlikely on any current projections.
If the dividend is a sop, when in fact the Board are intent on sucking in shares to Treasury, those shares will sooner or later see the light of day in staff incentives to stay and then I’m questioning the employees’ commitment to the cause.
JH is a smart man.
I don’t like what I think his business management approach is if he’s going to back up shares to Treasury to reward retention.
Some might say so what? He’s done good job and he’s at the coal face.
With a lot on.
But watch out for his special bonus treatment.
For what it’s worth I think he’s earned it. But some of it is going to be paid in shares and currently there are none in Treasury. So where are they coming from?
‘Retention Arrangement for Mr. Jon Harris Resolution 12 deals with a proposed one-off retention arrangement for our CEO, Jon Harris, through an amendment to the Remuneration Policy. If approved, it will be paid 50% in cash and 50% in shares. The Board of GKP recognises that the retention of key staff is one of the biggest risks facing the Company in the current circumstances. In light of this, it is proposed that a specific retention arrangement is made for Jon. Jon has performed strongly since his appointment in 2021. With the export pipeline closed, he has provided exceptional leadership in urgently reducing costs, building a profitable local sales business, providing motivational direction and maintaining a strong working relationship with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and other stakeholders. The Board considers that it is in the best interest of the Company, taking into account its shareholders as a whole, to put an appropriate retention arrangement in place for Jon, to ensure he remains available to lead engagement with both the Federal Government of Iraq and the KRG towards an export restart solution and drive the business and the Company’s strategy in the current operational environment.’
It smacks of nepotism.
And suggests that the days of buybacks for cancellation are limited going forward.
Nevertheless, a really solid OpUp with many upsides.
Thanks for the calc
GKP didn’t spend anywhere near the $10 million set aside for the Buyback, IMO the market “liked” the idea and as a result the price per share went up and they ended up buying fewer shares than hoped for.
So they take the unspent bit of the $10 million and top it up with around circa $11 million to set a dividend of $15 million.
The market liked that even more so increased the price per share even more.
Can’t help thinking the double use of the unspent buyback was a stroke of genius, its threat of use produces a rise and its re usage in the dividend produces another 🙄
Started: Barno61, 21 Jun 2024 08:29
Last post: schlemiel, 21 Jun 2024 08:41
I agree. It's a wonderful position that GKP finds itself in. Fingers crossed the politics remain stable and compliant to the needs of the oil companies
At just £330 million what an opportunity to buy into a company that’s growing revenue fast, paying dividends and sat on Billions £££££ worth of oil so revenue streams for years and years to come 💥
Started: ValueS, 21 Jun 2024 08:33
Last post: ValueS, 21 Jun 2024 08:33
From the RNS:
"The Company intends to complete the programme following the AGM subject to shareholder approval of resolution 9"
There are 8 or more sessions of buyback until 4th of July (x-div date). At the usual 125,000 shares per session, another 1 m shares at least could be bought back by x- div. This will improve the dividend per share to 5.42 p (at least?) according to my calculation.
Best Regards ValueS
Started: Roxi, 21 Jun 2024 08:19
Last post: johnnybegood80, 21 Jun 2024 08:26
Read RNS, "$15 million interim dividend is equivalent to 6.832 US cents per Common Share"
Anyone worked out the div per share
Contender today, nice to see some proper action on the Sp today, my £1.50 target reached, now march on to the £1.75
Started: Barno61, 21 Jun 2024 08:15
Last post: Barno61, 21 Jun 2024 08:15
Prices rising . More profit. And a dividend.
£2 on the way.
Started: Kheldar, 21 Jun 2024 07:12
Last post: ValueS, 21 Jun 2024 07:43
At current GBP/USD = 1.2663, Dividend =5.3956 p per share.
Approximately 3.8%?
Dividend.
$15 million interim dividend is equivalent to 6.832 US cents per Common Share based on the Company’s total issued share capital as at 20 June.
Started: bucephalus1, 21 Jun 2024 07:30
Last post: Kheldar, 21 Jun 2024 07:36
@brucephalus1 - probably quite a few expected the usual share price drop after the agm and sold down. They have a decision to make now whether to jump back in at open :-)
I hope itsaponzi closed his shirt though 😂
Perhaps some are a little disappointed with the positive RNS?
Started: Roxi, 21 Jun 2024 07:29
Last post: Roxi, 21 Jun 2024 07:29
Must be the option going forward, with the cash were generating the ceiling of $100 million cash in the bank has been met, everything above that , looks to be coming back to shareholders one way or another
Started: Roxi, 21 Jun 2024 07:18
Last post: Roxi, 21 Jun 2024 07:18
YIPEEE!!!, now we surge past £1.50 onwards to £1.75, more dividends this year, with cash in flow increasing
and not a lot to spend it on!!!! but Dividends and Buybacks
Started: Straycat, 20 Jun 2024 13:47
Last post: Straycat, 21 Jun 2024 06:26
That is exactly my point…just wish I’d expressed it as succinctly as you!!
Because if those shares go back to Treasury then they are dormant but still active.
And can be re-activated at any time.
22m share buyback, which is what is proposed under Resolution 9 MUST be for CANCELLATION.
Or we need a credible explanation as to why retention, a.k.a. rewarding employees just for sticking around, is the need. And how much money might be needed for that retention exercise.
Btw, you don’t buy staff loyalty by bribing them.
You do it by them buying into the GKP proposition and the future of the business model.
As shareholders we’ve all invested in GKP’s future. And we’ve paid enough over time for that particular pleasure.
If that future is at risk unless we dampen down that risk by reference to retention of staff via hoarding shares in Treasury, then we should have some rationale.
We deserve nothing more, nothing less. Particularly serious LTHs who are (rightly) cynical.
Including the Institutions.
Clarification is now King.
I doubt we’ll get it.
It won’t happen because the Board want to keep their options open.
But it will lead to deeper shareholder concerns as to real the motive for the next phase of the buyback momentum.
What happened to JH’s new world of openness and transparency?
We’ll see today…
Agree with you.
If you want add value for shareholders when doing buybacks, you CANCEL the shares. I sincerely hope that the first tranche of buybacks for CANCELLATION was not a Trojan Horse, to get shareholder agreement on further tranches going to TREASURY.....
Belgrano you asked about the pipeline contract ending?
Looking forward to seeing my questions hopefully answered tomorrow morning along with everyone else's.
That's a given and shareholders vote this in Ffs.
Let's see how Market sees it ?? Can see a 10% drop on the back off it aswell.
Started: Kheldar, 21 Jun 2024 06:12
Last post: Kheldar, 21 Jun 2024 06:12
Https://www.rudaw.net/sorani/business/200620244
A US Commerce Department official told Rudaw that the United States is coordinating "very closely" with Baghdad "to create a favorable environment" for its oil companies in Iraq.
A number of companies operating in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) oil sector have been suspended for more than a year due to disputes with Baghdad over their contracts, following a March 2023 ruling by the Paris Arbitration Court.
Although Erbil and Baghdad have agreed to resume oil exports under the supervision of the Federal Oil Ministry, the companies have not resumed oil production because they do not agree on wages.
Rudaw's Diyar Kurda in Washington asked US Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Global Markets and Foreign Trade Services Arun Venkataraman how they are working with Baghdad and Erbil to resolve the issue.
"We are working very closely with the Iraqi government to create a favorable environment, not only for oil companies, but also for companies in other sectors to participate in Iraq's development," he said.
Venkataraman noted that Washington is "taking a stand on a number of obstacles and challenges to trade" of their companies in Iraq; He said they would work "closely" with the Iraqi government to identify sectors they believe "have opportunities for US companies to invest.
“We know that the key points for the [Iraqi] government in economic development policy are those where our US companies can play a role; we continue to work with them to create an environment for our companies to succeed because we know when our companies succeed in Iraq Iraq will succeed in achieving its goals.”
Rudaw's Q&A with US Assistant Secretary of Energy for Global Markets and Foreign Trade Services:
Rudaw: Now that we are talking about foreign investment in the United States, I would like to take this opportunity to talk about US investment in Iraq and the Iraqi Kurdistan Region Their work has been suspended for a year. What is the Commerce Department's view on this issue? How are you working with the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Iraqi governments to resolve this issue?
Arun Venkataraman, US Assistant Secretary of Energy for Global Markets and Foreign Trade Services: First of all, we are working very closely with the Iraqi government to create a favorable environment, not only for oil companies, but also for companies in other sectors Get involved. We will focus on a number of obstacles to doing business in Iraq. We work closely with the government to identify sectors where we believe there are opportunities for U.S. companies to invest. We know that Iraq's needs are many; We also know that the key points for the [Iraqi] government in economic development policy are those in which our US companies can play a role. We continue to work with them to create an environment for our companies to succeed because we know that when our companies succeed in Iraq, Iraq will succeed in a