Member Info for Wiseman72

Haven’t posted for a while but been looking from the outside. Agee with Longstrong below that it’s encouraging to see the upward trajectory of the SP but I feel the significant movement should come from one of the major events over the next weeks/months.

Also find it intriguing that Shamaran are doing similar moves to GKP.

Nice to see the positive reaction to the Oslo listing, suspect with increased exposure we should see a steady rise leading to March when I fully expect a decent dividend to be announced.

The oil price movement is also clearly having an impact with the geopolitical backdrop of Iran, Russia etc.

Staring to look exiting moving forward.

GLA

Have been in GKP for over 10 years during the Todd days experiencing some highs and lots of lows and have been reflecting on the news over the last few days and not sure if the market has fully realised the potential impact of the agreements that should develop over the coming months once the interim agreements are replaced based on Wood Mackenzie findings. This truely transformational for GKP and other IOCs operating on the region. We have lots to look forward too including I suspect increased distributions possibly similar in scale to 2022. Being debt free provides us with huge advantage to leverage the improved FCF from export sales. Fully expect agreements to be put in place to recover arrears which alone is approx 150m.

I think once we see the monthly payments land over a few months, agreement on arrears repayment schedule and possible dual listing we will see progressive rerate in our SP. I have full confidence that JH is aligned with shareholders and we are in for some exciting times ahead.

Hopefully the LTH can finally realise some of those promised returns.

GLALTH

Great news today finally getting the approval of the budget law. This unlocks the next stages whereby the individual oil companies can negotiate their contracts, suspect this will take several weeks however given the rate agreed was aligned with all IoC hopefully shouldn’t prove too troublesome.

Exciting times ahead I think, and great to see the volume of messages on the BB go into over drive, like the ‘good’ old days when talk of takeovers and the massive potential dominated discussions.

First stop let’s get that share price back to somewhere more reasonable, then when we get details on contract agreed and arrears agreement then we really are in boom town!

GLALTH

Just wanted to say how nice it is to see some very familiar names back on the BB. Whilst I have never met anyone on the board I have been involved with GKP for about 10 years so like a lot of LTH experienced the highs and lows.

Not sure where we will end up, although it really does feel a little different this time so fingers crossed everyone’s patience is rewarded and we can finally realise some of that potential.

Lots of respect to those who are no longer with us and a timely reminder to ensure you live your life to the maximum while you can.

Best of luck all LTH

Great update proving even without the pipeline being operational we are a profitable legitimate business able to generate FCF and pay dividends. The best bit is that without debt we can ride this out until a resolution is found, the asset continues to deliver and we have an excellent CEO steering the ship.

Once a resolution is in place for the pipeline and back payments I see this absolutely flying. Happy to hold and pick up a decent dividend in March/April.

GLALTH

Wishing everyone a happy and prosperous 2025. Could be an exciting year for GKP.

GLA

Good to see some positive movement this morning I think a combination of some positive tones coming out of Iraq regarding a possible way forward to break the deadlock to allow pipeline reopening and the Trump victory is driving this.

Whether we like it or not Trump is percieved to be stronger on the economy and also probably more oil friendly.

GLA

Fantastic RNS and very positive move declaring both a dividend and buyback. Additionally, loving the positive messaging about reopening of the pipeline.

Very good management from JH and demonstrates yet again he is much more aligned to shareholders than the previous CEO.

GLALTH

Great news of dividend returns and ongoing completion of buyback

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/gulf_keystone_petroleum/news/rns/story/rmd519r

Given it now looks like we are part of the discussions finally would be interested in hearing peoples views on what would be prepared to concede for conclusion to open the pipeline. I have my personal opinion but would be interested in hearing others:

A) should not give an inch (keep existing PSC contract terms and demand full back payments

B) would be prepared to move on back payments e.g by increasing percentage of income, receive arrears over a longer payment period

C) must receive all back payments in full before restarting

D) prepared to compromise on back payments and or costs to produce

My personal view is in an ideal world it would be A above however like all negotiations something will have to give so suspect a payment mechanism offset of back payments of some kind (e.g. increase length of new contract) and also slight reduction in cost of oil payments. Overall thinking longer term the benefits of having a legal binding contract with Iraq would offset the above and pave the way for further growth.

Interested in discussing variants of the above and peoples opinions.

GLALTH

Very encouraging news from Iraq, yes we have had many false dawns regarding the restart of the pipeline however the difference this time is that the IoC are also at the table during the discussions which is a huge difference.

I think everybody has forgotten we are still a profitable company even on local sales alone, JH has to be given credit for navigating this so well, with the pipeline open and backpayments made (I would suspect some compromise on this) the FCF we will generate is game changing. Legalisation, debt free, and a very healthy balance sheet will prompt a serious rerate.

GLALTH

Ok very different scenario (location, size and assurance of payment, grade of oil etc etc etc) however interesting to see a valuation of approx $17bn for approx 2bn barrels of oil.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-29/conocophillips-to-acquire-marathon-oil-in-22-5-billion-deal

GLALTH

Nice RNS and full of positivity which is good to see, overall suspect it could have been done a little earlier but personally not questioning the amount as it’s more the messaging and intent.

When the pipeline opens also sounds a more positive stance from previous comms so at least things seem to be going in the right direction.

Good overall management again from JH.

GLA

Having read the RNS and presentation (unfortunately missed the webcast) I must say given the circumstances I think JH has done an excellent job. I think since his appointment a few years back I feel a lot more comfortable that there is better alignment between the BoD and shareholders. Let’s not forget the previous regime at the held JF and the crew were absolutely diabolical and purely self serving.

I am liking the fact they draw a line in investing further until restart, back payment and commercial framework aligned with existing PSC terms are agreed. Also, like the fact they are calling out rewarding shareholders with dividends when time permits.

Unlike a few I am glad they did not consider a dividend this time around and are preserving liquidity. One thing we have learned here being holders is uncertainty is there pretty much all the time.

Feeling confident that a resolution will be found in time , just a shame it’s taking so long.

GLA

APIKUR member companies have legally valid contracts with the KRG and expect to receive payments in accordance with these agreements.

No significant changes as expected, one positive is that costs are being covered and we can sit this out until things are resolved. Had hoped for slight increase in sales but as long as covering costs happy with that at the moment.

Patience is key

GLALTH

Prudent and good management from JH, positive signs regarding selling to local market, reduction in expenditure and a 20% deferral of salaries.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/gulf_keystone_petroleum/news/rns/story/xp8z49r

I think whilst todays RNS confirming cancellation of dividend is disappointing it’s prudent given the current situation.

Reflecting on what has happened over the last couple of months are a few thoughts:

- GKP has had a much higher valuation when the field wasn’t proven

- GKP has had a much higher valuation when there was no route to market for the oil

- missed payment, even paying for fields to be given away!

- we have seen shorter after shorter appear on here and scaremongering going on for years

- we have had ridiculous valuations placed on us such as 20bn in the past yet here we are at approx 300m

- Since then we have had numerous executives consistently talk about how world class Shaikan is

- we have survived poor management, court battles, war, pandemic but to name a few ‘challenges’ albeit at the expense of shareholders (myself included, never thought I would still be here over 10 years later)

Given all the above and in my belief having a good CEO at the helm (JH) I do believe we have a bright future once the dust settles and the oil begins to flow again which at some point it will. What gives me this confidence well again some thoughts:

- for the first time the oil will be controlled via SOMO

- we should have increased stability (albeit might be on different terms but at least it provides a platform for greater investment and risk reduction)

- we were pumping 55k bopd prior to shut in

- once the payment mechanism and hopefully back payments are made dividends will return which in turn should provide a route to unlocking the undoubted potential valuation

- it is not only impacting GKP it is effecting other companies and Kurdistan/Iraq and Turkey.

GLALTH

So clearly the RNS today will bring some realisation to the table and I think JH has been sensible in his approach. However there are no surprises in the RNS and JH is quite rightly being prudent in preserving cash.

Long term holders including myself are not new to the roller coaster that is GKP. This time it’s very different in that it’s not just GKP it impacts all oil companies in the region which personally provides more assurance.

KRG/MNR have for a long time proven themselves to be unreliable and untrustworthy. They have now been backed into a corner by Iraq and agreed an interim model for managing and handling oil from Kurdistan (I feel optimistic that this will become a longer term solution in the passing of O&G law). The passing of this will provide certainty and assurance which will provide GKP and others to be able to plan and progress. Business loves certainty hence why we have been undervalued for years due to the lack of it.

The asset is not in dispute we have a licence to produce and it’s proven time and again it will deliver. We also in my view have a good CEO.

The issue now is that Turkey understandably wants certainty too, they have received a 1.4bn fine and no doubt will want assurance regarding any additional future fines before restarting exports (let’s face it anyone in there shoes would want the same).

Obviously given the above this will inevitably take longer to resolve, however it does at least mean that both Kurdistan and Iraq should now be on the same page or pages regarding the need to restart asap given the revenue being lost on a daily basis. Any movement on resolving the issues will invariably have an almost immediate impact on the share price I suspect.

Therefore, my personal view (not a recommendation as I would never recommend you take advice from a BB). Is we have choices

A) sell at depressed prices
B) hold
C) accumulate at depressed prices

I have made my personal choice and will be around for a while yet.

GLALTH

I felt there was an overreaction last week which reflected in the share price. Given the urgency to resume the oil flow todays news is welcome but we have to take stock too.

As a long term holder with many ups and downs over the years (probably more downs to be fair) I do feel the fact the Kurds hands are being forced may actually work in our favour. There is still things that need to be ticked before I get the cigar out including:

- official confirmation of resuming pumping oil
- recovery of delayed payments
- agreement and clarification of future payment mechanism (based on Brent/Kurd Blend)
- payment terms (assuming via SOMO)

I do feel positive though as with more certainty maybe just maybe GKP will be allowed to fulfil its obvious potential and realistic valuation. It does feel we are actually entering the last quarter of a long long game and just maybe we might be rewarded.

GLALTH