Member Info for Wiseman72

I haven’t posted for a while but here goes…

In my personal opinion having been in GKP for a number of years JF is a complete disaster, he continually fails to deliver on his own targets time and again. There is so much to be positive about GKP:
- Dividend of around $50m
- Increasing production volumes
- Buybacks etc

Yet the share price continually underperforms and that for me is the responsibility of the CEO, if you look at the fundamentals for GKP we are so undervalued its crazy even based on the current conservative CPR we should have a market cap north of £2bn yet we can’t even get near £1bn. For me regardless of the macro economic environment this boils down to poor management. I invested in the Todd days and for all his faults (he had alot with saddling the company with huge debt and excess pay) he could actually sell the story, remember we reached >£3.5bn valuation when we had no route to market and producing next to nothing.

JF has never been able to sell or enthuse the investor community he is drab, repeatedly misses his targets and has been amazing lucky to land and keep his job given his performance. Yet he is still there so he is serving his purpose for the majority shareholders (II’s). I would just hope if he does not reach his latest (revised twice) target of achieving the uplift in production to 55k bopd he is shown his marching orders and he is replaced by someone who can actually be positive and sell GKP to the investor community.

I feel even if JF does achieve 55k in Q3 we are in desperate need for some influential leadership to get us anywhere near a more realistic valuation as I for one have no confidence in him or his ability to achieve this.

I can’t believe the under performance of this BoD yet again they have missed their own deadlines originally end of 2019 for 55K then moved back a quarter every few months.

So we are now looking at Q3 but how long will that last, literally no confidence in JF at all failed on so many levels.

So to try and sweeten the blow they announce a further $25m buyback well that seemed to work last time didn’t it, look at the share price before the initial one and look at it now. Additionally they have failed to explain why dividends have been paid to treasury held shares after the buy back.

Shocking performance from this BoD. It’s a good job we still have a licence to a fantastic asset.

GLA

New CFO appointed starts Jan 2020.

So a lot of disruption at the moment with markets literally not knowing which way to turn. With a fair wind and USA China trade breakthrough, Brexit deal I would expect quite a sharpish uplift in the markets.

GKP is so hugely undervalued due to past history that a correction will be quite dramatic if based on fundamentals.

Fully expect a payment next week and est. $19m and an operational update so put me down for £2.70 for Christmas :)

GLA

Good to see another payment land on ex-div day, hopefully should soften then inevitable drop with going ex-dividend.

This should also be the lowest payment received for a few month with increased volumes during July, Aug and Sept.

Would expect payments for the following months be in the region of $17m for July then approx. $20m for Aug and Sept.

Let’s hope we hear confirmation of pipeline tie in shortly and hopefully some positive news regarding O&G law.

GLA

So mixed bag at the HY results positives included greater than expected depth during drill, provokes some thoughts around a revised CPR. More positives include confirmation of dividend payment on 4th Oct and recommenced buyback.

Negatives yet more missed deadlines, not sure how much longer JF can last if he continues to fail delivering against targets they set.

On a positive note looking like approx 12.2p dividend payment being made in a few weeks.

GLA

So half year results tomorrow and fully expect record half yearly profits but hopefully we get much more including:

- confirmation of dividend payment date (previously stated payment shortly after HY results)
- operational update with progress to date of drilling/expansion plan (please don't let this slip anymore!)
- update regarding discussions with MNR and future FDP
- commencement of buy back remaining $10m

- confirmation of pipeline tie in which should increase net back price

Anything else positive would be most welcome including update of CPR and replacement of CFO

GLALTH

Half year results to be announced 10th Sept, dividend should follow soon after.

https://ir1.q4europe.com/asp/ir/GulfKeystone/NewsRead.aspx?storyid=14415682&ishtml=1

Good to see the payment land which was for slightly more than I expected. Given the production figures for May are quite a bit higher I would expect the payment for May to be in the region of $20m, hopefully this should land before end of August (when payment has been delayed previously we have received two payments in the same month).

Like a lot of LTH I think the MNR have caused a lot of issues for GKP as well as other Oil companies in the region, however over the last two years or so payments have generally been ok so I don’t think there are any alarm bells (albeit we like everyone else is on 90 day payment terms).

Onwards and upwards from here with increasing production volumes, half year results in September and operational update along with dividend payment to follow.

GLALTH

£5 is very modest but everyone has there own exit price. Remember GKP has had a valuation of around 4bn previously and that’s without being in such a strong financial position as they are now. See below valuations based on shares in issue before buyback started:

Shares. Valuation Share price
229430000 1148000000 5.00
229430000 1250000000 5.44
229430000 1500000000 6.53
229430000 2000000000 8.71
229430000 3000000000 13.07
229430000 3500000000 15.25
229430000 4590000000 20.00

Good to see the share buy back has started today, in a strange kind of way I am quite happy the share price didn’t increase much as this will allow more shares to be taken off the table and therefore increase EPS. Although I fully expect the share price to steadily rise over the coming months with the promise of a healthy dividend end of Sept.

Back of a beer mat calculations:

Shares in issue 229,316,566 which will continue to decrease as the buyback really kicks in. The remaining dividend to be paid 2/3 of $50m (33.33m) divided by shares in issue and currency conversion gives approx. 12p per share or approx 5.3% yield on today’s share price.

Like a lot of long termers will feel more comfortable when the share price is much higher than today’s price but nevertheless nice to see the we’re heading in a more positive direction.

GLA

HSBC the same awful bank!

I notice the GKP share price is still ex-dividend which isn’t normally the case following the dividend payment. Given the payment is in two tranches its not clear whether we will remain ex-dividend until the 2nd Payment (end sept) or not.

If we remain ex-dividend for both payments today and Septembers that could explain the fall in price recently. Sorry for stating the obvious but usually the share drops by the value of the dividend and given only 5.68p is being paid today the current drop would be well over done.

****eye - your probably right although a few things made things worse for me was that I held via HSBC and they didn’t offer the OO so I had to plough in more with another company to get the OO.

Agree us long term holders have been lied too for years, I consider myself fortunate that I have been able to continue to average down. I know a lot of LTH unfortunately haven’t been in a position to do so.

On the same had I also know a few people who have fantastic averages below 1p old money so are quids in.

Either way it continues to get manipulated but like you I will continue to the very end, unless we got a very large spike where I felt I could a) get my money back and b) make something after all this bloody pain we have suffered.

Anyway good luck and here’s hoping that we will turn a corner sooner or later.

Interesting to see the share price response to the share buy back announcement and dividends hasn't exactly set the share price on fire. In fact the opposite has happened, clearly there are other factors at work here which are holding the share price back.

Alot of us long term holders are probably sick to the back teeth of this share and want to get out and the earliest opportunity, although alot including myself need a price way north of here. I do think there is an element of investor fatigue whereby some holders will get that weary with the lack of movement in the share price and will cut there losses and get out.

I for one will certainly not be doing that, I like alot of the large institutional investors will be topping up when given the opportunity to reduce my overall average, recieve my dividend and sit back and wait until the day of reckoning happens.

I like alot of the long termers invested here based on the fundamentals and these are in alot better place than they have been for years.

GLALTH

Distressed

I think we all hope for the same thing, we should hopefully receive March payment news soon too (which shoud be a higher payment than Feb due to increased volumes).

Distressed - first of all sorry to hear your in the same position as me. Personally I think there are a few things that will ultimately get this company going:

- deliver against plans to build confidence
- build a regular increasing dividend policy with buybacks (Becomes more investable for the institutions)
- change in CEO (personally not sure if it’s the right time just yet but both JF and Sami don’t instill confidence and continually fail to deliver against their targets)

Also, the pressure of the institutional investors will demand a return so the BoD will have to ultimately deliver value to shareholders.

GL

Straycat - good to hear you didn’t get caught up in the dilution. I am fortunate in that whilst I need a higher price than what is current I have been able to average down significantly so am hopeful I will get money back and more. I know some of the long term holders are not in as fortunate position to be able to average down.

The BoD are dillusional they think they are the great savours yet they have failed on so many levels not least to deliver against their own self established targets. I have no confidence in Sami and JF. However I have accepted we are now in a much better position financially even if we have been had over by both the BOD and MNR.

Will continue to hold, add on the dips and take the dividend and one day this will all be a distant memory :)

GL

Straycat - I agree entirely I probably similar to you invested a few years ago and got caught up with the dilution etc managed to average down significantly but still need a price higher than we are currently.

I feel entirely let down with the BoD JF was a great promise with improved communications etc however I have tried to contact investor relations several times and never received a response. I am quite a significant share holder and feel the total lack of respect for us is disgraceful.

All being I am still here holding and buying the dips based on the fundamentals as over the long term I do still genuinely believe value will come through.

GL

You would hope that’s what they do I.e. buy on the dips to maximise the amount of shares they can acquire. Hopefully they will then retire these shares therefore reducing the total amount of shares in issue which theoretically should increase the price of the balance in issue.

Unless a complete spanner is thrown in the works then it all looks very positive to me.

GL