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****eye - your probably right although a few things made things worse for me was that I held via HSBC and they didn’t offer the OO so I had to plough in more with another company to get the OO.
Agree us long term holders have been lied too for years, I consider myself fortunate that I have been able to continue to average down. I know a lot of LTH unfortunately haven’t been in a position to do so.
On the same had I also know a few people who have fantastic averages below 1p old money so are quids in.
Either way it continues to get manipulated but like you I will continue to the very end, unless we got a very large spike where I felt I could a) get my money back and b) make something after all this bloody pain we have suffered.
Anyway good luck and here’s hoping that we will turn a corner sooner or later.
Interesting to see the share price response to the share buy back announcement and dividends hasn't exactly set the share price on fire. In fact the opposite has happened, clearly there are other factors at work here which are holding the share price back.
Alot of us long term holders are probably sick to the back teeth of this share and want to get out and the earliest opportunity, although alot including myself need a price way north of here. I do think there is an element of investor fatigue whereby some holders will get that weary with the lack of movement in the share price and will cut there losses and get out.
I for one will certainly not be doing that, I like alot of the large institutional investors will be topping up when given the opportunity to reduce my overall average, recieve my dividend and sit back and wait until the day of reckoning happens.
I like alot of the long termers invested here based on the fundamentals and these are in alot better place than they have been for years.
GLALTH
Distressed - first of all sorry to hear your in the same position as me. Personally I think there are a few things that will ultimately get this company going:
- deliver against plans to build confidence
- build a regular increasing dividend policy with buybacks (Becomes more investable for the institutions)
- change in CEO (personally not sure if it’s the right time just yet but both JF and Sami don’t instill confidence and continually fail to deliver against their targets)
Also, the pressure of the institutional investors will demand a return so the BoD will have to ultimately deliver value to shareholders.
GL
Straycat - good to hear you didn’t get caught up in the dilution. I am fortunate in that whilst I need a higher price than what is current I have been able to average down significantly so am hopeful I will get money back and more. I know some of the long term holders are not in as fortunate position to be able to average down.
The BoD are dillusional they think they are the great savours yet they have failed on so many levels not least to deliver against their own self established targets. I have no confidence in Sami and JF. However I have accepted we are now in a much better position financially even if we have been had over by both the BOD and MNR.
Will continue to hold, add on the dips and take the dividend and one day this will all be a distant memory :)
GL
Straycat - I agree entirely I probably similar to you invested a few years ago and got caught up with the dilution etc managed to average down significantly but still need a price higher than we are currently.
I feel entirely let down with the BoD JF was a great promise with improved communications etc however I have tried to contact investor relations several times and never received a response. I am quite a significant share holder and feel the total lack of respect for us is disgraceful.
All being I am still here holding and buying the dips based on the fundamentals as over the long term I do still genuinely believe value will come through.
GL
You would hope that’s what they do I.e. buy on the dips to maximise the amount of shares they can acquire. Hopefully they will then retire these shares therefore reducing the total amount of shares in issue which theoretically should increase the price of the balance in issue.
Unless a complete spanner is thrown in the works then it all looks very positive to me.
GL
Yes three items not included in first post:
- revenue arrears previously est. $91m apparently now down to a negligible amount
- back in Costs I.e. monies owed to GKP for buying back in the government 20%
- cost recovery (for past capex) approx. $500m (see page 6 below)
https://www.gulfkeystone.com/media/120756/gkp-corporate-presentation-may-2019-website-final.pdf
Hi, below are links to the AGM resolutions and the RNS confirming the buyback will be completed during this financial year.
https://www.gulfkeystone.com/media/120946/GKP-Notice-of-AGM-2019.pdf
https://ir1.q4europe.com/asp/ir/GulfKeystone/NewsRead.aspx?storyid=14354853&ishtml=1
I must admit I am surprised at the lack of movement in the share price given the number of positives surrounding GKP at the moment, the list just goes on:
- Dividend of $50m this year
- Share Buyback Min $25m this year
- Over $200m net Cash in Bank
- Significant Free Cash Flow to Fully Fund the Expansion upto 110k BoPD
- First Director Buy in years (albeit small 20k)
- Increasing Oil Price (Steady around $65-70) with likelihood of this increasing given Macro events)
- Steady Production (albeit on the lower end of guidance)
- Due further payments for oil supplied since March (adding approx another $40-50m)
- Pipeline due to be finalised which will increase the netback per barrel by $1
Given all the stress us long term holders have endured over the last few years I really have the feeling this is going to move soon, all the above cannot be held back for too long.
GLALTH
Apologies pressed post too soon!
Looking at all the fundamentals the current valuation for GKP is insane, just over 500m market cap with over 200m net cash available. Very strong balance sheet and free cash flow to fully fund expansion upto 110k bopd there isn't another oil company that is valued so attractively that I can think of. Yet here we are sitting and waiting, although at least we will now receive dividends shortly.
Looking at what fair valuation might mean to the share price see below:
Shares Valuation Share Price
229430000 1bn £4.36
229430000 1.148bn £5.00
229430000 1.25bn £5.45
229430000 1.5bn £6.54
229430000 2bn £8.71
229430000 3bn £13.07
229430000 3.5bn £15.25
229430000 4.59bn £20.00
Got to be worth at least £2bn based on what we currently know....here waiting like alot of other long term holders.
GLA
Looking at all the fundamentals the current valuation for GKP is insane, just over 500m market cap with over 200m net cash available. Very strong balance sheet and free cash flow to fully fund expansion upto 110k bopd there isn't another oil company that is valued so attractively that I can think of. Yet here we are sitting and waiting, although at least we will now receive dividends shortly.
Looking at what fair valuation might mean to the share price see below:
Shares in Issue
229430000 1000000000 4.358627904
229430000 1148000000 5.003704834
229430000 1250000000 5.44828488
229430000 1500000000 6.537941856
229430000 2000000000 8.717255808
229430000 2000000000 8.717255808
229430000 3000000000 13.07588371
229430000 3500000000 15.25519766
229430000 4590000000 20.00610208
Really pleased they going ahead with a share buyback as well as the dividend, obviously disappointed they have missed their targets again but this does soften the blow.
Given we go ex-dividend on 28th June I would fully expect them to take advantage of the inevitable drop in share price to grab as many as they can with the $25m. Looking ahead we have a relative stable oil price, imminent payment for March production (the highest in a while) and forthcoming OPEC meeting.
Things are looking very positive at last, we hovered around a 2bn valuation before all the shaninggans so I would hope we can progressively head back to a more realistic valuation again soon.
GLA
The next payment must be due soon and I would expect it to be for a lot more than the most recent given the volumes produced during March.
Things are looking good just got to keep the pressure on this BoD to deliver against their timelines.
GL
https://www.gulfkeystone.com/media/121662/agm-presentation-frankfurt-21-june-2019-website.pdf
All resolutions passed note the share buy back wording...
‘For an INITIAL amount upto $25m’
Note the capitals are mine, this is exactly what the share price needed double whammy of dividends and buyback to kickstart a climb in valuation back to more realistic levels. This hopefully should climb pretty quickly and ward off any chance of predatory takeover on the cheap.
GLA
Personally I am not sure about being instructed more about being taken advantage of and they have gone along with it. Let’s face it the reason the restructure happened is a combination of things:
- lack of payments from MNR
- collapse in oil price
- economy down turn when previous BOD had secured funding against our core assets
We became a sitting duck as soon as no additional funding could be obtained due to lack of payments and unwillingness to loan more. The shorters seen a financially weak company and BoD and went for the jugular. Funds should have been raised much earlier but liquidity dried up. Sami and Jon have been weak and have made a fortune out of it as well as paying to hand over SA to the opportunistic MNR.
As sad as it is I along with a lot of other Long Term Holders need a price way north of here just to break even. I would like to see us deliver the plan for growth and also explore opportunities outside of Kurdistan to get a more balanced portfolio, we are so reliant on the MNR we just get dictated too.
We have a great asset but I have always felt we need another source of income as an insurance policy against the games played by the host country.
I do believe we are in a great position though now compared to a few years back and ultimately providing the growth plan is delivered we will see a more realistic valuation appear.
GL