RE: To all long term holders pre 201120 Mar 2021 15:15
I have been in GKP for about 8 years now, I made some money with a relatively small trade and bought into the story and went big which in hindsight was the wrong thing to do. I feel the pain felt by all LTH a lot of sleepless nights in particular the time when it was looking like we would lose everything.
JF was a complete disaster and con artist all he managed to do was make himself and his ‘chums’ very rich. Ever since I invested I knew the political risks but underestimated the level of corruption and mismanagement that has happened down the years. TK was greedy but I still feel he would have delivered a better outcome to where we are now I.e. paying to hand SA back at a time when we were close to bankruptcy due to missed payments still stinks.
One thing I have kept faith in is the asset itself it continues to deliver despite very little investment compared to others. We are now in a better place than at any time in our history I would say. A strong balance sheet, not far off 55k bopd, 73m back payments, steady oil price only going one way over next 12mths, 500m cost pool, dividends and buybacks in pipeline and very importantly a new CEO.
Unfortunately I don’t think we will ever get true value as something has to be left on the table of any new owners but anywhere in the region of 2-3bn has always been my target which given the reserves etc is realistic in my view.
A £1bn valuation would give us a share price of £4.75 which gives you an idea of how undervalued we are. Let’s hope the end of the month will finally start to see a fair value appearing.
In answer to the question would I bail out once I reach breakeven the answer is no, I have been through too much with this share to leave without some reward. But totally respect anyone doing otherwise.
GLTH
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