Member Info for Wiseman72

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/high-gkp-share-price-trebling-095941765.html?.tsrc=applewf&guccounter=1

Finding it very puzzling that some people are over reacting to the latest share sale/transfer. The disposal of the last tranche of shares by Taconic was completely predictable. They clearly had an entry and exit price and wanted to move on, most investment companies don’t stay long term in individual equities.

Taconic have made their money both by shorting GKP and catching the recovery following dilution. I find it very encouraging a willing buyer has been found for such a large amount of shares very quickly at a price of 2.74. There are so many positives to look foward too over the coming months hopefully all the LTH manage to realise what is happening here.

I have been massively impacted by the dilution but I am more positive now than at almost any other time that GKP has turned a corner. I fully expect the SP to recover over the coming weeks and then some. Personally a realistic valuation just based on current conservative CPR figures is well in excess of 2bn.

Good luck to all the long term suffering holders, don’t let the Bas£&rds steal off us again.

GLA

The issues in Saudi make Kurdistan look like Disneyland :)

Given it’s widely accepted that GKP is currently undervalued upon delivery of the expected RNS during Q3 what’s your bet on the company market cap?

Shares. Market Cap. Share Price
229430000 700000000 3.05103953275509
229430000 800000000 3.48690232314867
229430000 900000000 3.92276511354226
229430000 940000000 4.09711022969969
229430000 1000000000 4.35862790393584
229430000 1250000000 5.4482848799198
229430000 1500000000 6.53794185590376
229430000 2000000000 8.71725580787168
229430000 2500000000 10.8965697598396
229430000 3500000000 15.2551976637754

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Tight-Oil-Markets-Are-Ignoring-Supply-Risk.html

Have been a long term holder of GKP and like many long term holders got decimated by the share dilution. I have been dealing in various shares for years and always done quite well. I bought into the GKP story and thought there were so many other options and debt for equity but I hold my hands up and got this wrong. One thing I don’t think I have got wrong is there is still a lot of value in Shaikan and as private investors we will probably never get the return we originally envisaged when investing here however the game has changed over the last few months. Slowly but surely value is being returned and if you look at what is in the pipeline compared to the known risks this has massive potential in my opinion. I would hope to see a fairer reflection in the market cap in the region of 1.5-2bn once the BoD start delivering and stop talking I.e. confirming PSC and back costs, confirming project delivery to increase barrels produced. Confirm tie in to pipeline, new FDP and updated CPR...a lot to look forward too. Good luck to both new investors (I wish I had your average) and long term holders.

Another nice payment received :)

Thanks same for you, feeling a lot more confident that we will see a fairer value than I did last year. Still don’t trust the BoD but we have what we have.

I think one of the biggest risks we have is an aggressive low ball offer.

Good luck

Haven’t posted for a while but having once been resigned to losing my investment in GKP I am increasingly confident that we seem to be finally turning a corner (a bloody big corner at that). But there are a lot of positives appearing here and can see the impact of that on the ‘new’ baseline share price over the last couple of weeks.

Positives
- Improved and stable oil price
- Regular increased payments linked to Brent price
- Very healthy cash balance of $220m+
- Approx. $48m outstanding payments from Apr-Jun
- Approved investment plan for 2018 (would like to know where we will be by end of 2018 on BOPD) maybe 40k+
- Possibility to refinance the $100m bonds on better terms instead of 10%
- Pending updated CPR and would expect upgrade on current reserve figures
- Tie into the pipeline
- Improving sentiment for investing in Iraqi Kurdistan evidenced by Russian commitments
- No longer a distressed seller
- Share price quite stable even when large scale trade sale took place which was quickly bought up
- New chairman with increasing number of RNS being issued

The negatives

- Still lack of trust in BoD in particular JF and SM
- Outstanding PSC2 amendment
- Ongoing squabbling between Iraq and Kurdistan and political wranglings
- The fact we handed back SA and paid for the privilege

Overall a hell of a lot more positive than last year, the key now is to deliver on their promises and when that starts to happen then let’s see where the share price takes us. Like a lot of long term holders still some way off breaking even here but given a fair price and some of the positives above hopefully most of us can recover most of our investments.

GLALTH

Just looking at some figures from last couple of presentations and doing some rough estimates based on cash in bank and current conservative CPR figures: Valuations 615m 2P resources (slide 10) approx 3/barrel 1.845bn 568 Jurassic 3m Cretaceous (Heavy Oil) 44m Triassic (Light Oil) 239m 2C Resouces (slide 11) approx 1.5/barrel 358.5m 80 Jurassic 53 Cretaceous (Heavy Oil) 106 Triassic (Light Oil) Revenue Arrears (unrecognised) slide 17 investor presentation 33m as of June 2017 MNR back costs 76m as of June 2017 203m cash 100m debt as of 10th April so net cash of 103m plus payments from Jan onwards. Summary 103 cash 36 cash to be received (Jan to Mar) 33 arrears 76 back costs 1.845bn 2P reserves 358.5m 2C reserves Total 2.451bn So roughly 2bn GBP and this is without any uplift in CPR figures and using low valuation per barrel figures. Like a lot of long term holders I am down big time here so let�s hope we get closer to this valuation GLALTH

Good result today, great to see me profit for the year and Also the strong performance of the field. Despite all the noise and politics the field has consistently produced, we have made no dent in the amount of oil in place. I am really encouraged about the proactive between 40k and 75 k investment plan and look forward to this being delivered. Hopefully the new chairman is a doer instead of a talker and we start to see a More realistic vaultion (2bn being a starting Point) GLA LTH

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-eni-egypt-mubadala/eni-sells-10-percent-of-egypts-shorouk-concession-to-mubadala-petroleum-idUKKCN1GN0U3

The lack of communications from our BoD has to come to an end shortly with the fast approaching year end due mid April. Given the lack of information provided by the management team regarding commercial progress of the 2nd amendment it will be interesting to see what the �Strategy� is going forward considering we now have approx $190m in the bank with payments from December still due. As painful as this has been holding these shares the fundamentals are as strong as I have ever known. The extra $3.1m/month based on the new commercial sales agreeement also helps. I would hope to see some movement on the following: - stabilisation to return to 40k bopd and plans for increase to the 55k - plans for utilisation of cash whether this is a buy back or reduction in debt - updated CPR - updated regarding �closed� period - further clarity regarding MNR buy back in option Either way I cannot imagine JF will be allowed to continue on the current path without increasing value for much longer, could be an interesting few weeks ahead, GLALTH

haha I don't think you are that far off the mark with that...complete lack of trust for the BoD given their past antics. All being equal we should receive in the region of �44m net based on the average oil price by month and average barrels/month, lets just see what arrives (wouldn't be surprised at the regular 15m gross payment landing with an excuse). GL

So whilst the market has gone crazy...I was thinking how much will receive this month considering we have invoiced for Oct, Nov and Dec based on the new sales agreement model? Could be an interesting month...

Yes this is the last on the old fixed payment scheme so based on my rough calculations outstanding 44m due using the new agreement figures for Oct through to Dec.

So I make that 157m in the bank and another 44m due on new agreement. Looks good to me GL

Just to add that with the 4 months arrears totalling approx 55m we should have approx 212m less 100m debt in the bank soon enough. All that without any buy in payments from KRG financially and operationally I think GKP probably have never been in better shape.

Agree but the market moves a lot on sentiment and at the moment the lack of trust in both the BoD and the KRG are weighing heavy on GKP. I suspect it�s starting to change slowly, if we land an improved PSC and the politics steady down then I really can�t see anymore excuses for such a low valuation. GL

The whole market is down I think this seems more positive than negative and the price should rebound later today once the news is digested. GL