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Clearly receiving any payment at this time is a bonus although very disappointed that payments from November to February are delayed for 9mths especially given these were expected to be quite chunky sums given the increased volumes.
I find the GKP RNS to be typical of the current management in place, lacks detail and total disregard for shareholders. They have always done the absolute minimum required and at no point ever instilled confidence in me JF is probably one of the luckiest CEO’s around to have landed this job as he has failed on so many levels.
The Genel RNS at least provides further information regarding the situation and fortunately as all oil producers in the region are being treated ‘equally’ we can take some comfort there.
Whilst a return to some normality will be tentative we will return and oil price will recover, this is a period of survival and GKP fortunately is in a very strong position compared to a lot of others.
Good luck all and stay safe!
Great to finally receive payment for October sales, hopefully these payments become regular again.
We are currently two months behind the regular 90 day payment terms so overdue for Nov/Dec which should also include higher payments due to increased volumes during these months.
GLA
Sensible approach taken thank god. Very good cash holdings and review dividend payments dependent on payments being received from MNR.
Performance from field as always delivers, as good as it gets guys. Let’s ride out this storm we are definitely one of the stronger mid-size oil companies with healthy balance sheet.
GLA
Have been watching from afar over the last few weeks and have the following personal opinions:
- The BoD continue to under perform even given the pandemic crisis the failure on progress upto this point is shocking
- We are fortunate to have a strong cash balance and will be able to withstand this providing the BoD don’t you any silly moves
- Payment arrears for all kurdistan producers are now becoming an issue. This for me is the single most important topic.
- the field continued to produce well and suspect it will do for many more years confirming we have a licence to a great asset
- the low oil price whilst not ideal is bearable for us given we are a very low cost producer
- this crisis will pass and once it does the pent up demand will rocket like nothing we have seen before
- The bought back shares must be cancelled to deliver some value back to holders
- Dependent on payments being received I would pay the $25m dividend but no special dividend this year due to oil price and also importance to hold cash
- Agree with the suspension in drilling operations, must keep the current operation going without introducing further risks
Finally given the news about Mikey brings home the fact while a lot of us long term holders pine for this to come good our lives continue and it’s the time and experiences with our loved ones which is the most important thing. Eventually value will come through here but who knows when and also to what extent.
Good luck all and hope we all get through this crisis without losing loved ones.
Hi CCC
I am not under any illusions about Todd he played it to suit him but isn’t that what anyone in a senior sales position does hence the incentives for the company to generate more revenues etc etc etc.
Albeit Todd went too far with excess pay etc but he was clipped. The reality I see is that JF isn’t the type of person who should be leading a mid-size oil producer with lots of potential he is a geologist and would do just fine in the background but not leading from the front.
He is also serving his own self interest but the poor PI is not benefiting this time, give me a strong sales driven leader any day that way a lot more benefit than just the chosen few.
GL
I haven’t posted for a while but here goes…
In my personal opinion having been in GKP for a number of years JF is a complete disaster, he continually fails to deliver on his own targets time and again. There is so much to be positive about GKP:
- Dividend of around $50m
- Increasing production volumes
- Buybacks etc
Yet the share price continually underperforms and that for me is the responsibility of the CEO, if you look at the fundamentals for GKP we are so undervalued its crazy even based on the current conservative CPR we should have a market cap north of £2bn yet we can’t even get near £1bn. For me regardless of the macro economic environment this boils down to poor management. I invested in the Todd days and for all his faults (he had alot with saddling the company with huge debt and excess pay) he could actually sell the story, remember we reached >£3.5bn valuation when we had no route to market and producing next to nothing.
JF has never been able to sell or enthuse the investor community he is drab, repeatedly misses his targets and has been amazing lucky to land and keep his job given his performance. Yet he is still there so he is serving his purpose for the majority shareholders (II’s). I would just hope if he does not reach his latest (revised twice) target of achieving the uplift in production to 55k bopd he is shown his marching orders and he is replaced by someone who can actually be positive and sell GKP to the investor community.
I feel even if JF does achieve 55k in Q3 we are in desperate need for some influential leadership to get us anywhere near a more realistic valuation as I for one have no confidence in him or his ability to achieve this.
I can’t believe the under performance of this BoD yet again they have missed their own deadlines originally end of 2019 for 55K then moved back a quarter every few months.
So we are now looking at Q3 but how long will that last, literally no confidence in JF at all failed on so many levels.
So to try and sweeten the blow they announce a further $25m buyback well that seemed to work last time didn’t it, look at the share price before the initial one and look at it now. Additionally they have failed to explain why dividends have been paid to treasury held shares after the buy back.
Shocking performance from this BoD. It’s a good job we still have a licence to a fantastic asset.
GLA
So a lot of disruption at the moment with markets literally not knowing which way to turn. With a fair wind and USA China trade breakthrough, Brexit deal I would expect quite a sharpish uplift in the markets.
GKP is so hugely undervalued due to past history that a correction will be quite dramatic if based on fundamentals.
Fully expect a payment next week and est. $19m and an operational update so put me down for £2.70 for Christmas :)
GLA
Good to see another payment land on ex-div day, hopefully should soften then inevitable drop with going ex-dividend.
This should also be the lowest payment received for a few month with increased volumes during July, Aug and Sept.
Would expect payments for the following months be in the region of $17m for July then approx. $20m for Aug and Sept.
Let’s hope we hear confirmation of pipeline tie in shortly and hopefully some positive news regarding O&G law.
GLA
So mixed bag at the HY results positives included greater than expected depth during drill, provokes some thoughts around a revised CPR. More positives include confirmation of dividend payment on 4th Oct and recommenced buyback.
Negatives yet more missed deadlines, not sure how much longer JF can last if he continues to fail delivering against targets they set.
On a positive note looking like approx 12.2p dividend payment being made in a few weeks.
GLA
So half year results tomorrow and fully expect record half yearly profits but hopefully we get much more including:
- confirmation of dividend payment date (previously stated payment shortly after HY results)
- operational update with progress to date of drilling/expansion plan (please don't let this slip anymore!)
- update regarding discussions with MNR and future FDP
- commencement of buy back remaining $10m
- confirmation of pipeline tie in which should increase net back price
Anything else positive would be most welcome including update of CPR and replacement of CFO
GLALTH
Half year results to be announced 10th Sept, dividend should follow soon after.
https://ir1.q4europe.com/asp/ir/GulfKeystone/NewsRead.aspx?storyid=14415682&ishtml=1
Good to see the payment land which was for slightly more than I expected. Given the production figures for May are quite a bit higher I would expect the payment for May to be in the region of $20m, hopefully this should land before end of August (when payment has been delayed previously we have received two payments in the same month).
Like a lot of LTH I think the MNR have caused a lot of issues for GKP as well as other Oil companies in the region, however over the last two years or so payments have generally been ok so I don’t think there are any alarm bells (albeit we like everyone else is on 90 day payment terms).
Onwards and upwards from here with increasing production volumes, half year results in September and operational update along with dividend payment to follow.
GLALTH
£5 is very modest but everyone has there own exit price. Remember GKP has had a valuation of around 4bn previously and that’s without being in such a strong financial position as they are now. See below valuations based on shares in issue before buyback started:
Shares. Valuation Share price
229430000 1148000000 5.00
229430000 1250000000 5.44
229430000 1500000000 6.53
229430000 2000000000 8.71
229430000 3000000000 13.07
229430000 3500000000 15.25
229430000 4590000000 20.00
Good to see the share buy back has started today, in a strange kind of way I am quite happy the share price didn’t increase much as this will allow more shares to be taken off the table and therefore increase EPS. Although I fully expect the share price to steadily rise over the coming months with the promise of a healthy dividend end of Sept.
Back of a beer mat calculations:
Shares in issue 229,316,566 which will continue to decrease as the buyback really kicks in. The remaining dividend to be paid 2/3 of $50m (33.33m) divided by shares in issue and currency conversion gives approx. 12p per share or approx 5.3% yield on today’s share price.
Like a lot of long termers will feel more comfortable when the share price is much higher than today’s price but nevertheless nice to see the we’re heading in a more positive direction.
GLA
I notice the GKP share price is still ex-dividend which isn’t normally the case following the dividend payment. Given the payment is in two tranches its not clear whether we will remain ex-dividend until the 2nd Payment (end sept) or not.
If we remain ex-dividend for both payments today and Septembers that could explain the fall in price recently. Sorry for stating the obvious but usually the share drops by the value of the dividend and given only 5.68p is being paid today the current drop would be well over done.