Member Info for Wiseman72

Whilst it’s encouraging to see a small uplift in the share price I feel we are still along way from a true valuation. So I was thinking of what it will take to drive the share price, my view is that the following events will result in a marked increase in our valuation:

- resumption of dividend
- resumption of buy back
- payment of debt
- resumption of drilling/growth plans
- resumption of payments
- receipt of back payments
- increasing oil price and demand
- Approved FDP
- Release of improved CPR and reserves
- Deliver the growth plan to 55k and beyond
- Change in Management
- Farm out or Commercial Deal
- Complete Sale (bidding war)

I feel the recent lift in share price over the last few days as been more aligned to the increasing oil price and not any of the other events above. I have long felt that GKP is at least a £2bn company even based on the conservative numbers we have in public as of now. However the longer the share price remains low my concern is that a predator could take out GKP on the cheap and that for me is the reason we need to see some of the value add events above happen and that is upto the management team to deliver.

Let’s see if the AGM can provide some positive updates.

GLALTH

Like I have said on numerous occasions I genuinely believe GKP is the better company in terms of assets and potential going forward. The thing holding this back at the moment for me is the poor communication and management.

I good strong CEO who can communicate a powerful message adds massive value likewise a poor CEO causes the opposite effect.

Anyone who performs any financial analysis of the two companies would probably go for GKP however sentiment and trust can overide this which I think is the case here.

Like a lot of LTH we bought in here because of the asset and for that reason I hold and await a change of leadership.

GLA

Why would I sell now please explain when going forward this will be worth multiples of today’s valuation?

The disparity between the share prices since the pandemic has shown everything that is wrong about the BoD of GKP in my view.

Sound like a broken record but we possess a licence for a proven massive oil field with huge reserves and low lifting costs, albeit in a questionable region but isn’t most large on land oil in questionable parts of the world.

Genel have come out with clear and concise RNS and updates, continue to provide a dividend and give the perception of a well run company.

GKP on the other hand in particular JF doesn’t instill any confidence or assurance that any deadline of objective will be achieved.

The fact is GKP has a far better asset than Genel but the key difference is how the company is being run and that is where the issue lies. Both operate in the same region have exactly the same challenges regarding payments etc but Genel get things done and GKP unfortunately don’t.

Being a long term holder and under water here I genuinely hope a change of CEO takes place with a respected heavy hitter brought in to bring back value.

JF has destroyed us and continually rewards both himself and his cronies for achieving nothing, missed deadlines, missed promises and missed opportunity.

Let’s hope GKP can play catch up soon with the price of oil approaching $40.

GLALTH

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2020/05/23/why-i-think-the-gkp-share-price-looks-cheap/

SS - I sincerely hope you are correct. As stated earlier I genuinely believe we hold a licence to one of the most exciting onshore discoveries for years.

Unfortunately I don’t share your optimism regarding the current BoD and in particular JF, I really do hope I am proven wrong in my judgement as that will mean I will become very wealthy :)

I can understand reduced communication if in a closed period and in discussions with other parties regarding commercial arrangements whether that be a farm in or sale. However, the recent purchase of shares by our new CFO confirms that is not the case.

Personally I think JF is running out of excuses for his failure to deliver. I honestly wouldn’t care whether it’s JF or another CEO who delivers true value as long as it’s achieved.

There have sadly been people who will never get to know the final outcome here (thinking Mikey amongst others) and the longer these games go on the more weary private investors become.

Either way good luck with your investments and keep the positivity going as regardless of views the whole purpose of these BB is to exchanges opinions and views whether we agree or not.

Great asset poor management :)

GLA

Disagree SS sure they are part of the problem but Genel and many other IoC operate in Kurdistan/Iraq and have performed much better than GKP despite not having as good an asset as Shaikan.

IMO

For me the main issue despite the recent lack of payments is the complete mistrust in the current BoD.

I have never doubted the quality of the Shaikan field it has continually delivered and even using the current very conservative CPR is worth vastly more than the current valuation, that is the reason I first invested and continue to hold/add when possible.

The issue I feel is that the company is not being run for the benefit of all shareholders. Clearly there is complete misalignment between the management team and private shareholders. Maybe this isn’t so with the large II as JF manages to keep his job.

Whilst I was never a huge fan of Todd Kozel as he caused a lot of issues for GKP piling on huge debt and taking massive salary/bonuses. He did however create value whilst he was at the helm and also created confidence and could sell the GKP dream hence the much higher valuation of the company at the time despite not actually producing much. For a CEO this has to be one of the key performance measures hence why remuneration should be linked to it.

I have never had an issue with JF making millions if it was linked to creating value for the company (look at the market cap when he took over and look now). He clearly has not created value.

When JF joined I was hopeful he would steady the ship and return the company to the ‘prettiest girl at the dance’ however his complete lack of presence, communication. enthusiasm and incompetence has sucked the life out of the company.

Under his watch the company has not gone forward despite having a very strong balance sheet and holding the licence to one of the biggest on land oilfields in Iraq if not the world.

I have a large sum invested in GKP like a lot on here I don’t blame anyone else other than myself as investing is always a risk however I do begrudge management who should be working for us having complete disregard for a lot of people’s hard earned money.

I have contacted investor relations numerous times and apart from one many years ago have never received a response this is absolutely shocking for any listed company to completely ignore ‘owners’ of the company you are employed by.

I continue to be positive about Shaikan but sadly have no faith in the current management team to deliver anything near the value it should be. Even on very conservative numbers and accounting for risks this is a £2bn+ company. Yet here we are with a market capitalisation of less than £180m that is down to largely poor mismanagement.

I do genuinely believe value will come out in the end whenever that maybe and that is the reason I continue to hold. I just hope in the near future we can attract a high calibre CEO who can deliver the value it deserves.

Good luck all

JF has been a complete failure for the now minority shareholders (us). Since he took over with the promise of transparent and regular communication the relationship with shareholders (other than the large institutions is at an all time low). With the promise of creating value the only value he has created is to his own bank balance and that of his cronies. Remember GKP has been valued at almost £3.5bn (yes billion) previously when next to nothing being produced and no clear route to market.

Here we are after four years of his management valued at around £170m! Despite all the positives including a huge field which has continued to deliver despite very little development his failures include:

- Failed on his promise to communicate and create value
- Failed on his own targets to reach 55k Bopd on three occasions (2 of which was prior to the corona virus outbreak)
- Failed to deliver an updated acceptable FDP
- Failed to deliver a 2nd amendment to the PSC which promised the ability to market own oil
- Managed to pay £10m fee to hand back AB field despite previous arrears from MNR/KRG almost bankrupting us
- Failed to utilise the high cash holding to enhance the share price instead using treasury held shares to reward himself and others for not achieving objectives
- Not cancelling treasury held shares
- Failed to diversify to reduce the risk of having one customer
- Holding debt and paying 10% premium when lending is at an all time low

The reality is despite how anyone dresses JF tenure at GKP he has been a complete and utter disaster for shareholders yet the largest II investors keep him in place which is strange to say the least. However there must be a reason for this.

The smaller shareholders like ourselves are left mute due to the vast majority of holding shares via a nominee account and therefore not able to vote at AGM’s to attempt to remove this incompetent CEO and how they have abused that position.

The difference a competent and trusted BoD can make a huge difference to the bottom line valuation of any company, this is demonstrated simply by looking across at Genel where they have weathered the Corona crisis so much better through clear communication, commitment to dividend payments etc despite not having as large a reserve as GKP.

I am a long term holder and like most just want a fair valuation for of our investment and also know we are being run in an appropriate manner with our best interests at heart currently that is not the case. I wait for the day that happens as if it does we will be worth many multiples of today’s valuation no matter what metric you use.

GLALTH

R.I.P. Mikey really sad to hear about the sad loss.

Will miss his posts and such a shame a down to earth guy didn’t see this investment come to fruition for him and his family.

Real people, real lives sadly impacted by corrupt greedy management.

Rest in peace Mikey

I find it completely repulsive that the BoD have announced yet more options and bonuses today.

This act just demonstrates the disconnect between the BoD and the rest of the world including ordinary shareholders.

The timing of this completely stinks and will prove very lucrative for those awarded. I have never had an issue with awarding options or bonuses but these should be linked to performance. The current BoD have failed on so many levels JF being the worst:

- failed his self imposed targets to reach 55k bopd target (this has been delayed three times before COVID-19 so can’t blame it all ok this)
- failed to negotiate a revised PSC when promised
- failed to sell the story which for me is absolutely key everyone knows the size and scale of Shaikan yet we have a CEO who couldn’t sell sand to the Middle East.

Unfortunately as a result of the restructure and dilution ordinary shareholders have very little influence and this is allowing the BoD to use GKP purely for their own benefit.

A decent BoD would have declined options and bonuses given the pain everyone is going through whether that people losing loved ones, financial distress etc. They would have cancelled the shares held in trust and also dipped personal money into the company they have happily ran for the last few years.

How a CEO can receive a bonus for the share price performance demonstrated over his tenure absolutely bamboozles me. At some point you would hope the large II investors will want a change unfortunately by the time that happens JF has become a very wealthy man from doing a very poor job.

GLALTH

Stay strong Mikey, take care fella.

Historically they have reported on a cash received basis which is common when payments are irregular.

Up until the last 6mths payments had become regular and I was expecting us to change to reporting on an acrual basis I.e. expected receipts as the risk of not receiving them is very low however given the latest turn of events I can’t see this shift happening now.

I would fully expect GKP to continue to report on cash received basis. Let’s see if costs are reduced by reduction in salaries! I think not unfortunately.

Agree but a willing puppet who is earning a fortune.

Clearly receiving any payment at this time is a bonus although very disappointed that payments from November to February are delayed for 9mths especially given these were expected to be quite chunky sums given the increased volumes.

I find the GKP RNS to be typical of the current management in place, lacks detail and total disregard for shareholders. They have always done the absolute minimum required and at no point ever instilled confidence in me JF is probably one of the luckiest CEO’s around to have landed this job as he has failed on so many levels.

The Genel RNS at least provides further information regarding the situation and fortunately as all oil producers in the region are being treated ‘equally’ we can take some comfort there.

Whilst a return to some normality will be tentative we will return and oil price will recover, this is a period of survival and GKP fortunately is in a very strong position compared to a lot of others.

Good luck all and stay safe!

Great to finally receive payment for October sales, hopefully these payments become regular again.

We are currently two months behind the regular 90 day payment terms so overdue for Nov/Dec which should also include higher payments due to increased volumes during these months.

GLA

Sensible approach taken thank god. Very good cash holdings and review dividend payments dependent on payments being received from MNR.

Performance from field as always delivers, as good as it gets guys. Let’s ride out this storm we are definitely one of the stronger mid-size oil companies with healthy balance sheet.

GLA

Have been watching from afar over the last few weeks and have the following personal opinions:

- The BoD continue to under perform even given the pandemic crisis the failure on progress upto this point is shocking
- We are fortunate to have a strong cash balance and will be able to withstand this providing the BoD don’t you any silly moves
- Payment arrears for all kurdistan producers are now becoming an issue. This for me is the single most important topic.
- the field continued to produce well and suspect it will do for many more years confirming we have a licence to a great asset
- the low oil price whilst not ideal is bearable for us given we are a very low cost producer
- this crisis will pass and once it does the pent up demand will rocket like nothing we have seen before
- The bought back shares must be cancelled to deliver some value back to holders
- Dependent on payments being received I would pay the $25m dividend but no special dividend this year due to oil price and also importance to hold cash
- Agree with the suspension in drilling operations, must keep the current operation going without introducing further risks

Finally given the news about Mikey brings home the fact while a lot of us long term holders pine for this to come good our lives continue and it’s the time and experiences with our loved ones which is the most important thing. Eventually value will come through here but who knows when and also to what extent.

Good luck all and hope we all get through this crisis without losing loved ones.

Take care Mikey and as ever thanks for your daily updates.

Hi CCC

I am not under any illusions about Todd he played it to suit him but isn’t that what anyone in a senior sales position does hence the incentives for the company to generate more revenues etc etc etc.

Albeit Todd went too far with excess pay etc but he was clipped. The reality I see is that JF isn’t the type of person who should be leading a mid-size oil producer with lots of potential he is a geologist and would do just fine in the background but not leading from the front.

He is also serving his own self interest but the poor PI is not benefiting this time, give me a strong sales driven leader any day that way a lot more benefit than just the chosen few.

GL