Member Info for Wiseman72

Yes three items not included in first post:

- revenue arrears previously est. $91m apparently now down to a negligible amount
- back in Costs I.e. monies owed to GKP for buying back in the government 20%
- cost recovery (for past capex) approx. $500m (see page 6 below)

https://www.gulfkeystone.com/media/120756/gkp-corporate-presentation-may-2019-website-final.pdf

Hi, below are links to the AGM resolutions and the RNS confirming the buyback will be completed during this financial year.

https://www.gulfkeystone.com/media/120946/GKP-Notice-of-AGM-2019.pdf

https://ir1.q4europe.com/asp/ir/GulfKeystone/NewsRead.aspx?storyid=14354853&ishtml=1

I must admit I am surprised at the lack of movement in the share price given the number of positives surrounding GKP at the moment, the list just goes on:

- Dividend of $50m this year
- Share Buyback Min $25m this year
- Over $200m net Cash in Bank
- Significant Free Cash Flow to Fully Fund the Expansion upto 110k BoPD
- First Director Buy in years (albeit small 20k)
- Increasing Oil Price (Steady around $65-70) with likelihood of this increasing given Macro events)
- Steady Production (albeit on the lower end of guidance)
- Due further payments for oil supplied since March (adding approx another $40-50m)
- Pipeline due to be finalised which will increase the netback per barrel by $1

Given all the stress us long term holders have endured over the last few years I really have the feeling this is going to move soon, all the above cannot be held back for too long.

GLALTH

Apologies pressed post too soon!

Looking at all the fundamentals the current valuation for GKP is insane, just over 500m market cap with over 200m net cash available. Very strong balance sheet and free cash flow to fully fund expansion upto 110k bopd there isn't another oil company that is valued so attractively that I can think of. Yet here we are sitting and waiting, although at least we will now receive dividends shortly.

Looking at what fair valuation might mean to the share price see below:

Shares Valuation Share Price
229430000 1bn £4.36
229430000 1.148bn £5.00
229430000 1.25bn £5.45
229430000 1.5bn £6.54
229430000 2bn £8.71
229430000 3bn £13.07
229430000 3.5bn £15.25
229430000 4.59bn £20.00

Got to be worth at least £2bn based on what we currently know....here waiting like alot of other long term holders.

GLA

Looking at all the fundamentals the current valuation for GKP is insane, just over 500m market cap with over 200m net cash available. Very strong balance sheet and free cash flow to fully fund expansion upto 110k bopd there isn't another oil company that is valued so attractively that I can think of. Yet here we are sitting and waiting, although at least we will now receive dividends shortly.

Looking at what fair valuation might mean to the share price see below:

Shares in Issue
229430000 1000000000 4.358627904
229430000 1148000000 5.003704834
229430000 1250000000 5.44828488
229430000 1500000000 6.537941856
229430000 2000000000 8.717255808
229430000 2000000000 8.717255808
229430000 3000000000 13.07588371
229430000 3500000000 15.25519766
229430000 4590000000 20.00610208

Agree, and would fully expect them to load up on the dip this Friday :)

Really pleased they going ahead with a share buyback as well as the dividend, obviously disappointed they have missed their targets again but this does soften the blow.

Given we go ex-dividend on 28th June I would fully expect them to take advantage of the inevitable drop in share price to grab as many as they can with the $25m. Looking ahead we have a relative stable oil price, imminent payment for March production (the highest in a while) and forthcoming OPEC meeting.

Things are looking very positive at last, we hovered around a 2bn valuation before all the shaninggans so I would hope we can progressively head back to a more realistic valuation again soon.

GLA

The next payment must be due soon and I would expect it to be for a lot more than the most recent given the volumes produced during March.

Things are looking good just got to keep the pressure on this BoD to deliver against their timelines.

GL

https://www.gulfkeystone.com/media/121662/agm-presentation-frankfurt-21-june-2019-website.pdf

All resolutions passed note the share buy back wording...

‘For an INITIAL amount upto $25m’

Note the capitals are mine, this is exactly what the share price needed double whammy of dividends and buyback to kickstart a climb in valuation back to more realistic levels. This hopefully should climb pretty quickly and ward off any chance of predatory takeover on the cheap.

GLA

Yet more missed deadlines...sigh... the pipeline moves to Q3 2019 and 55k to Q2 2020.

Positive is that share buyback to take place in addition to dividend if approved today.

GLA

I stand corrected then I thought the bonds were secured against our assets prior to Sami joining.

Personally I am not sure about being instructed more about being taken advantage of and they have gone along with it. Let’s face it the reason the restructure happened is a combination of things:

- lack of payments from MNR
- collapse in oil price
- economy down turn when previous BOD had secured funding against our core assets

We became a sitting duck as soon as no additional funding could be obtained due to lack of payments and unwillingness to loan more. The shorters seen a financially weak company and BoD and went for the jugular. Funds should have been raised much earlier but liquidity dried up. Sami and Jon have been weak and have made a fortune out of it as well as paying to hand over SA to the opportunistic MNR.

As sad as it is I along with a lot of other Long Term Holders need a price way north of here just to break even. I would like to see us deliver the plan for growth and also explore opportunities outside of Kurdistan to get a more balanced portfolio, we are so reliant on the MNR we just get dictated too.

We have a great asset but I have always felt we need another source of income as an insurance policy against the games played by the host country.

I do believe we are in a great position though now compared to a few years back and ultimately providing the growth plan is delivered we will see a more realistic valuation appear.

GL

Personally I think they were ‘guided’ to perform the restructure. The whole company has gone from a ‘shooting star’ to the ‘boring’ company JF mentioned. However, we are not boring we have a world class asset licence which will produce for years.

Even on the very conservative numbers based on current CPR we are well undervalued. I think one of the reasons for that is true lack of confidence in the current board.

I think we can all speculate why he is going, the wording in the RNS suggests he has done his job and it’s time for someone else. Let’s face it both Sami and Jon were brought into GKP to sort out the balance sheet (At our expense) this has been done.

Now the company is in a different place financially we now need a different skill set to push us forward, we are in a great position at the moment but this BoD and specifically this CEO needs to deliver the stated growth plan as he has failed on his promises multiple times including:

- improved communications
- original timeline for 55k bopd was Q4 2019 but now shifted to Q1 2020
- revised PSC

Neither Sami or Jon have added any shareholder value, it’s time for them to deliver or let someone else do it. In my opinion the large institutional investors will demand this.

Putting aside the lack of confidence in the pair we are is good place right now to deliver significant growth and value back to shareholders.

GLALTH

https://ir1.q4europe.com/asp/ir/GulfKeystone/NewsRead.aspx?storyid=14332386&ishtml=1

All change at the top, latest RNS released

Thanks BF

Have the dates been confirmed as I couldn’t find these in the annual report assuming the dividend will be approved at the AGM.

Thanks

No surprises in the annual report which is good really when you consider the reserve downgrades other companies have suffered e.g. genel

So hopefully receive payment confirmation RNS by the end of the week, expecting payment to be slightly less than last month. Payments from next month should be significantly higher due to less downtime etc.

I would expect us to go ex-dividend shortly after the AGM on the 21st June so fully expect the share price to rise towards that date. There is a lot to look forward to here as a long term holder I genuinely can see light at the end of the dark tunnel.

GLA

New presentation on website

https://www.gulfkeystone.com/media/120756/gkp-corporate-presentation-may-2019-website-final.pdf