The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Two days to drill update and we hit a full year low of 13.8p. Surely NCM must be considering a full company buy out given their free cash flow situation. A £1Bn/24p offer would be an absolute steal and before someone talks about responsible partnership and not low balling the JV partner, £1bn MC for a explorer and a 20x share price valuation from JV to buy out is the dream ticket for any junior explorer.
Seriously worried about the buy out scenario as I see 50p as possible once in full production in 2023.
Here we go again!
Either the numpty has no real idea of how a buyout actually works...... or the numpty is trying to sew discord (again!!!!).
Green bin.
@WF I must admit that over the weekend I wondered if Greatland will be a takeover target , soon it will be 12 months since the yearly high of 37.5p and once we have passed the anniversary it will become more attractive. I'm not thinking of NCM but bigger miners , an offer in excess of 1 billion for lock stock and barrel and agree to honour any JVs with NCM . What is Greatland's portfolio worth ? is 1 or 2 billion or 40p/50p per share , enough to tempt us to remove our numb hands from under our aching bums.
I am here for the long run but tedium is starting to creep in and 50p might just tempt me
If you want to sell out when it reaches 50p, you go ahead.
I know what we have in the ground. I know that NCM want/need Hav's ore going through Telfer. I know they need it yesterday. I know where this is going.
I will be invested (and increasing) for at least the next 5 years. I know my retirement funds and ISA will soon start to look very nice.
Before anyone knocks the fella, let’s not forget Shauns actual comments not long ago about how if we didn’t get the SP up we’d be a takeover target and he actually said premiums of around 50%.
Theoretically, that’s 21p currently. I’ve been saying how worried I am about this outcome for ages now.
JS, I don't think he said that. Do you have the link?
Welsh,
The principle behind buyouts ain’t complicated. Somebody offers to buy your company for a price. Due process determines if a company accepts or rejects the offer.
If you want to ignore this possibility carry on. Each 1p drop makes us more attractive to the big fish swimming in our pond.
Anyway, taken her rumours would boost the SP so quite how you reference my post as de-ramping is beyond me. But then I have been green boxed so presumably talking to myself anyway….
All the best.
It was the proactive q and a sessional and he referenced 30/50/70 percent buyouts. It wasn’t a throwaway comment either but a gentle warning to investors of what happens if the company stays way undervalued.
To be fair to SD he may have been thinking medium term after updated MRE and further drill results.
Dillon, he did say it. I have some time this afternoon, I’ll try to find which one it was said in for you. He definitely said it and sold the idea as a win win for investors.
It’s definitely not a win, I averaged up massively last year and half way through this year to 19p average, I’d be devastated if it came to fruition, I’m bullish as could be and genuinely see that as our main major risk.
I remember the interview but I don't think it was put quite like that. If I remember correctly T/O was mentioned and he didn't rule it out, but how could he anyway? Il have a check back later as I have no time today.
At these ridiculous prices I personally see us at high risk of a buyout - why wouldn’t a potential predator, why would they wait to end up paying much more? Let’s hope we have more than 1 interested party in buying us out eh… GLA
It was a question put to him during the PFS release InvestorMeet Q&A webinar, excerpt from the transcript I created below :-)
*Thank you Shaun, I’m turning to Mark P's question - the presentation makes Greatland Gold look very attractive - what are the chances of a takeover and would one be welcome?
Well it was intended to you know to be attractive so that's good, but the look, I think when I think about, uh our share price and Havieron itself - the you know, the challenge for me and for the Greatland team is that our narrative to the market is understood, well received and that we're able to grow Greatland as Newcrest grows, you know Newcrest as - all right sorry, as Havieron grows - every day you know there's nine rigs spinning on this site - adding information you know giving us better understanding of the ore body, unlocking value giving us you know a better insight.
As to the future, so you know the challenge for us is to continue to grow Greatland, because if we're unsuccessful in that - at some stage the hammer will fall and someone's going to take this asset off our hands- you know you don't find world-class assets in world-class jurisdictions being developed on a low capex, low-risk profile often.
This is a precious jewel which we're fortunate enough to own and develop so I think, our risk of our share price risk is asymmetrical - if we're that - if we're unsuccessful at delivering that narrative to the market our bear case is that takeover comes and we get the 35-50-70% premium and we're taken out.
Yeah I like to think the bull case is you know at least a theoretically unlimited upside in the share price as we fully unlock Havieron and look to leverage that platform for further financially disciplined growth - so that's the way I look at it you know, we are immature, we have a massive growth profile and every company in the sector wants a growth profile and that's all Greatland is right now.
Agree Josh, t/o is our highest risk to shareholder value at the moment. So sp is relevant to medium and long term holders as it dictates the probability of an offer and the value of an offer. Of course, I do not want that to happen and focus is given to the plans and budgets that Greatland are still executing…..LTHs want to be around for mining and production sales.
GLA genuine investors - TFG
I gather from the bits I can see that the numpty(ies) are pushing the SD mention.
Well, anyone can make an offer - that's true. But to actually achieve a successful buyout, a lot has to happen first.
If our numpty (or any company) tried to make an offer now, based on an increase in today's price, I'm sure we would all hear SD laughing from the UK. I can just imagine him saying (in between guffaws of laughter) "yeah right now duck off and come back when you have around a 30% holding and can demonstrate enough investors support so I can actually take this seriously. Oh, and if you can achieve that all at today's price I'll eat the whole next drill core".
This ain't Tesco - you can't just buy all the shares.......
Welsh - Best response i've seen yet. :)
After everyone has got over the shock and ****ed themselves, the offer would be doubled to 38p ,how many would vote to except that 30% ,offer increased to 50 p, another 21% agree ,buyout completed at a huge discount, this is only a scenario of course.
Also given our biggest II currently holds about 5% anyone interested in forcing a buy out is going to need to buy several ****tonnes of shares
No probs Josh, it's why I like to keep notes - easy to check back on these things and quickly read through when reviewing my investments :-)
You can also listen to it under Q15 under the Q&A tab on their platform:
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/ggp-investor-update
Personally, having observed Sandeep/NCM long enough now I don't think they'll resort to unsavoury methods as both himself and their General Exploration Mgr. Fraser have been very vocal about partnerships and being open to be approached by companies for potential projects, one of their three pillars of growth I think I recall from Diggers and Dealers in August.
Also, Sandeep seems to be very much focused on using real world business metrics and methods to assess business decisions around M&A and assessing strategical decisions around profitability/ROI etc. vs an approach of 'ounces for the sake of ounces' etc.
As for a potential 5% of Havieron offer, personally I can't see an offer materialising until after the FS if one does indeed materialise. Again, I do feel Sandeep will be looking at this in terms of a longer ROI aspect along with a potential for an offer for the full 30%, so not so sure either is a given - although definitely can not be ruled out. Personally, I'll just be focusing on the results on Wednesday evening and look forward to an updated MRE in Feb 2022 if not before :-)
Dip666 @13.14 - "As for a potential 5% of Havieron offer, personally I can't see an offer materialising until after the FS if one does indeed materialise".
Good call. I hope it will fall into Q3/4 of CY 2022 personally because of the time it will take to prove up all these drills into meaningful resources. At the moment we have a lot of ounces that have yet to be converted to an inferred resource as a result of all the drilling. We currently have only 1.7moz "inferred" and 1.9m oz "indicated" but the cut off for drilling was February 2021 so nearly 10 months ago.
In terms of "Probable" resource this amounts to only 1.6m oz at the moment. A great start but not enough to fully negotiate the 5% on.
Companies value "inferred" resources quite a lot lower than "measured and indicated" resource and that in turn is lower than "probable" resource (we currently have only 1.6m oz in this category). We currently have absolutely nil on the "proved" resource category which would give us the highest value per ounce.
https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/GGP-Growth-Update-Final.pdf (Slide 25 refers)
So we will be in our strongest position to negotiate on the 5% once a lot of the drilling is converted to "indicated" and "measured"; and then onward to "proved".
Because of delays at the lab, which have been ongoing for most of the year, we are yet to see the emerging size of the giant that is Havieron. This in turn is likely to put a brake on any meaningful negotiations with Newcrest until Summer 2022 I would suggest though hopefully the upgraded MRE will be a good start to kick off very early preliminary negotiations from Feb through to June.
We must not forget the copper as well as this will be a valuable resource for bargaining.
In terms of the figures, I have seen some analysts coming up with a figure of some $200/oz for good quality "measured" gold resources in safe jurisdictions with low transport costs. "Inferred" resources on the other hand have been quoted at a quite a lot below this, so it is important to get our resources moved up the confidence chain as quickly as possible. SD has a massively important job on his hands atm.
Spot on Dip, no way for SD to recommend a sale price until he spoke with NCM as a minimum, anyway they have first chance on any bid, On top of that SD has no skin in the game until he buys those 5000000 options so he makes no money from a low bid so for me no recommendations under 89p with 70% on top. He wants to be a miner, he is still a young guy (not like me) and what's better than mining a project for 40 years plus any finds in the interim to play around with. Must be thousands of guys wanting to be in his position and to manage future prospects. My buy out is 144p with a 70% uplift if anybody wants to know. Ciao DM
Not again, I thought we had put this discussion to bed a few weeks back.
More subtle negativity being fed into the BB.
The only people in favour of this option would be short term traders, anyone truly "invested" in GGP knowing what we have and what could be to come would not want this to happen.
One day soon you will disappear BiggL from this website, because you will no longer be able to show your face, due to the embarrassment you will feel.
NP. Great first post. Congratulations!!!!!
@BiggL
Let's take another scenario
Sa