The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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at the earliest until H2 2021. My initial plan was to sell some if not all at Dec MRE update but listening to GH interview today has changed my mind instantly.
I am hoping for atleast 100p+ but potentially 200p+ this time next year if Scally hits some good results..
Enjoy the ride.. rainbiw is here in GGP, no need to waste your time looking for another one. Derisked and at sale price even now if those looking to add more, I will as and when funds become available.
GLA
honestly speaking if I was Sandeep, if not earlier, I would have now made a Takeover offer for £3 to £5 bn for GGP. This is no brainer and SHs will take that right now before they know more...!
I hope there is no takeover.
remember most were happy to take 11p as T/O chats in March when sp was around 5p. That is now a distant past and £5bn T/o or about 125p would be a thing of past in probably next 6 to 12 months.
All of my early thoughts after buying into this share at the beginning of the year and adding as the months went by, were that it was a prime target for a takeover by NCM.
However...with the knowledge GH and Cb now have, I am revising my thoughts a little....thinking 'why' would GH , who knows his business financially speaking, give up his company or even part of it without a massive massive premium on it?
It may well be too late for Sandeep to snag Swag or Hav unless it is a mind blowing offer of course?!
I am just saying about T/O if I was in Sandeep's shoes. They got money, they know the potential and they can pay the 5 x premium at current price to become the biggest miner globally in few years. I suppose all offer has to go past SHs and it will not be entirely GH or CB decision whether they agree or not, they can only give their recommendation for voting.
Just a thought and I am not aware of anything cooking about take over.
Why would NCM want to take over GGP at the present time when they will have 70% of a massive tier 1 gold discovery for $65m ? And they have the first option of future JVs with GGP on the other projects; which although may not be as cheap a deal as the current JV; they would still be very interested as they know the area geology and they'd probably want to keep the other big boys out.
Floater: why have JV and have partner, end up paying premium if you can own them all 100% and keep competitors out of range forever..? To me JV are food if there is considerable risk but with all this, they know the area well and potential of other GGP projects. I would have gone for T/O if I was Sandeep
They have a partner and JV at a very cheap price, not a premium price. The premium price would be spending $billions to buy 100% if GGP, when they don't have to.
didnt think pat would be higher than us today
Historically our rises between NCM updates have been steady as she goes. The fact that we get no big bump following results should be celebrated, not worried about. Listed below are the rises between updates from 02 Dec 19.
02/12/19 - 30/01/20 1.794 - 3.485
30/01/20 - 11/03/20 3.485 - 4.625
11/03/20 - 30/04/20 4.625 - 8.450
30/04/20 - 11/06/20 8.450 - 11.50
11/06/20 - 23/07/20 11.50 - 14.90
23/07/20 - 10/09/20 14.90 - 17.30
10/09/20 - 29/10/20 17.30 - 24.375 (price at 10:37am)
We have NEVER ended a 6-7 week update period below the previous update price. Never. Good, steady, sustainable rises. Rises that gain pace as we move from update to update. Rises that gain pace once the 10% traders and short term holders are flushed out. Rises that gain pace once the market has had time to digest the news.
The intraday price movements on RNS day is completely & utterly irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Think outside of the daily bubble, remain patient and the rewards are there to be seen.
It really is a case of "see you in 6 weeks", and I have no doubt that we will be circa 30p if the trading pattern shown above is maintained.
Only my opinion, but the figures don't lie.
Morning Mickey.
All looking good for your target prices at some point in the future.
Price on the move UP! IMO
Sit tight!
Dodgemeister. Great research thank you for taking the time to do it and share it.
It can't get past 24.75 at the moment. Has hit it several times todaymm
I'm sure newcrest and ggp will work something out which benefits both companies greatly. If something is working you don't go off forming new relationships and adding potential woes.
Being offered BUYING price to SELL!
Must move up IMO
Floater - They have a cheap JV for HAV.
The question is all around the rest of the GGP locations. Lets be honest they won't get the next JV for anywhere near as cheap
Dodge, very good post, fully agree. thanks for the info.
oh and thanks also to Merc yesterday for his classy probability post btw. we cannot all be mining / geology experts (thanks again Paddy, Hydro, Bamps et al, but these 2 posts from you both show we can all contribute.
off to think what I can add...
gla
And when you look at the % increases between updates, they really are startling.
02/12/19 - 30/01/20 1.794 - 3.485 (+93%)
30/01/20 - 11/03/20 3.485 - 4.625 (+32%)
11/03/20 - 30/04/20 4.625 - 8.450 (+83%)
30/04/20 - 11/06/20 8.450 - 11.50 (+36%)
11/06/20 - 23/07/20 11.50 - 14.90 (+30%)
23/07/20 - 10/09/20 14.90 - 17.30 (+16%)
10/09/20 - 29/10/20 17.30 - 24.375 (price at 10:37am) (+41%)
Nothing in todays market compares to GGP. Nothing. Nada.
Being offered BUYING price to SELL - must be some movement! IMO UP?
Only thing I would say hydrogen is GH has said 2 - 3 years until commercialisation so where are revenues coming from in next 12 months?
"Continuing to investigate potential to achieve commercial production within two to three years from commencement of decline"
Revenues can come from upfront payment on JVs
Agreed Hydro - once they start to bulk trial the ore-body and start to drive access shafts etc through it - all that material will be gold & copper rich and should provide an income stream prior to the actual "commercial production" which will be further down the line.
Great post Dodge! And you got there just before me with the % uplifts :)
What I have also looked at (I am adding the amateur investor caveat here for my TA) is the % retracement that we generally see just after news. There is on average a 10 - 15% pullback the day after news (March was significantly bigger but Black Monday had an impact of course). I believe that is mostly profit taking and then we rise back up again, solidly, just as Dodge highlighted. So none of the pullbacks concern me in the slightest - just a top up opportunity for those who can.
But I am not so sure however that this news run will see the same pull back IMHO. I think the macro economic backdrop has held us back on this current run into NCM quarterly and the increase going into the news was much more muted than normal. I see this as a positive as hopefully helps us consolidate more at this level and then we can rush off to the races! I will add I am a LTH who is tightly sitting on my hands. Noone is getting my shares for a good, long while!