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I did post before that an MM could have borrowed the shares to meet the large trade. Bit risky though unless they all acted together.
What is possible is we may see an RNS to say most of the outstanding warrants have been converted.
I have always believed it’s the MM s themselves who support most of the placing shares.
We all eat lies when our hearts are hungry !!
Well, Spratt and earthling (I unfiltered you to see what you'd said after Spratt referenced you), I warned last weekend that there would be a lot of volatility but the long term value here was great. I took some abuse for it, but the volatility did hit the last two days. The uber-rampers never warned anyone about that, but I did, and you, earthling, didn't like it and were abusive. Since you're still singing the same song, I'm filtering you again. Too bad, sometimes you say things worth reading, but I'm not interested in the abuse.
Spratt, I don't get it, but if you want to filter me, ok. The fact is, a drop Monday / Tuesday might happen. MMs might play games. People might take profits. If that upsets you to read it, if you don't think it is good to give people a heads up to that, and remind them of the long term value, then filter me. I won't be filtering you because you say things worth reading, but will try to remember not to reply to you.
Good luck to you.
why don't we just wait til Monday and see what happens?
Anyone convincing pie0le it will go down then claiming he’s looking out for the more naive..I mean that’s just text book. And coupled with the concerted effort time and time again constructing posts all day...Come on!
Earthling...spot on.
TmT I’ve been reading your posts today, and I’m sorry to have to say that after reading your terrible justification to Fallen I have totally lost respect for your you. With regret you have been added to my filter list. ATB.
TMT: thanks.
TMT
Why don’t you stop with your subtle doom mongering
Do you know how many times you have told us today what you think will happen to SP?
People are getting onto your motives here
@Holla, understand you now. Very good question. I believe a fund would have to hold more than 5% of the company for their shares to drop out of the free float. But if they did, you'd be correct, it would reduce the number of shares eligible for the free float. I don't know, however, if MVIS excludes Van Eck's shares from the free float. I'm guessing they don't.
@fallen
Hope you're right. If you are right, my warning people that there might be a dip on Monday will have done zero damage. They'll say, 'Man, that TMT is a pessimist and he was so wrong.' Cool, being wrong will be good for my soul.
Suppose, though, that you are mistaken. If people with little market experience had no warning, they might panic and do something they'd regret. If they have a warning that it could happen, but it has no negative impact on the medium or long term value of their asset, they are less likely to panic. That's a good thing.
Have you done ANY research on what happened to other companies the day after GDXJ bought in? A lot of them do have a dip. We're different, so maybe we won't. Some drop permanently. We won't do that either way.
If you can show me that all the companies that go into GDXJ hold their value the following Monday, I'll shut up. History says quite the contrary.
Again, I hope you prove to be right. Not that it matters to me personally. I'm holding. The MRE is coming. So is Scally news, and Goliath.
Thanks AM90.
@Holla, yes i think you are right... if more funds buy the free float decreases and so would the free-float market cap....
But our current market cap has already increased by 80% since the data used for this rebalnce on the 31st august..
So if a few funds bought in and say take 10% of GGP and thus reducing the free float by 10%..... the massive increase in full market cap will far outweigh it and still lead to an increase in weighting and a big in December ..
The question, it seems to me we should be asking, is how many orders couldn't be filled on Friday.
Monday will be very interesting, for a variety of reasons. So many variables, imponderables & sub-plots.
More twists than a Hitch**** thriller.
What section in the times is your information Not paying for the times sh*tty subscription!!
What I am saying is, if they have taken 126m shares out of circulation for themselves, these are no longer in the free float are they? then say other institutions now buy in and take more out, surely the free float goes down and they have to buy proportionally less or maybe none at all even if a market cap changes? Or do I miss understand the 'free float'?
@Holla, I'm pretty sure they just fixed our free-float numbers and recalculated the percentages for everyone in the index. So I don't see that mistake having any impact going forward.
I'm not sure I totally understood your question, though.
@parry, if you want me to click on a link on a BB, don't make it a tinyurl one. Thanks.
TmT - the problem I see is, if they have taken a large number of shares out of the freefloat, and other institutions now do the same, then they won't have to buy as many in the future, or at all? If I am understanding how they work it all out?
Thanks, Jerry. Hope you're right about this week. Hadn't thought about MMs going short. Why would they have closed the deal at less than the 35p bid if they were short? Seems risky to me, but I must admit am not an expert on how they work.
This time is different from Sprott -- with Sprott, they didn't get all their shares on Friday, so they had to come back for some on Monday, and that kept it going. Pretty sure GDXJ got all of theirs.
Part of my thinking is that there may be some LTHs that had targeted 25p, and will now get out, or at least top slice. Monday seems like a day for profit-taking. I'm guessing, though, and very bad at timing markets.
I'm going to give my logic on this weighting thing because I can't see where I'm going wrong. If you can set me straight, would appreciate it. If I'm right, all the better:
1. Our weighting was set based on end of August MCAP, SP about 15p. That gave a 0.66% weighting, resulting in £33 million. That meant, at 27p, close to 120 million shares.
2. Assume a price of 27p still on 30 November. That should give a weighting of about 1.18% (if the rest of the index is stable). That's £53 million (assuming stable exchange rate).
4. The 120 million shares will still be worth £33 million.
5. Therefore, if the price is still at 27p 30 November, they'll be buying £20 million or thereabout.
There are two key sub-periods. The first is from end of quarter valuation (31/8) to the ETF rebalancing (18/9). Any changes in SP during this time unbalance the weighting. The second is from ETF rebalancing (share purchase) to end of month valuation. Changes in SP during this sub-period don't unbalance the weighting, because they are reflected in both the MCAP of the company and the value of the ETF's holding.
So, if GDXJ bought at 15p, changes after that would not skew the weighting. But changes between the valuation point and the purchase point do skew the weighting. As long as SP stays above 15, GDXJ is going to be buying again in December. How much they will buy depends on how far above 15 it is at the end of November.
That's my logic, shoot me down if I'm wrong.
Thanks for trying to hold the board together Today, with your reasoning which I mostly agree. Not sure you have fully got the weighting/reweighting stuff so suggest you play with a one or two stock index and what happens when the weightings change. Answer nothing.
So my quick take on last week is as follows:
The 121 was gdxj. The rest was probably other funds that follow mvis.
The mms are probably short now, having booked out the big sales at 27p. They may try a tree shake on Monday but I think they will lose out to more buyers if they do.
Who are all the 8m trades for? No idea but a lot of ideas floating round. My guess would be other funds getting in ahead of gdxj.
My guess for next week? 25-30p, more at the higher level than lower. I might be a buyer below that.
Scally news can’t be far away.
Wouldn’t want to trade this from the short side.....