The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
@fallen
Hedge funds. Brokers / MMs. Some PIs. Anyone who can read the rules of the index, look at the size of the fund, and say, "Man, if I figure out how this works I can see where the big buys are coming in three weeks in advance, get in ahead of the rise, and sell at a profit."
We saw it coming, and talked about it here three and a half weeks in advance. I know of one broker that put in a million a week later and cashed out and took their profits on Tuesday because they didn't know what would happen Friday. Others no doubt held until Friday and sold into the GDXJ buy, or the price increase would have been greater.
Doesn't matter now anyway. If there's more profit-taking to come, it will come. Won't last long, we should be up more by the end of the week at the latest, and probably sooner.
@FSA, would be good if lots of people reported it. We've seen that spam before.
Mercedesman spoke of the herd mentality . Fund managers are a herd too. A slow moving herd but when they start running together they run hard .I dont think it’s long before the herd start chasing in our direction. MRE long is my guess
@smalltrader
POG is interesting. Just like GGP, started an upward trend in late August. Not as big a trend up as we had, but we had good news along the way. They, on the other hand, have had some board instability and had a broker downgrade on the 17th. Some people apparently don't like me saying it but it looks to me like their GDXJ entry was heavily front-run, and the entire SP boost came before the GDXJ buy.
Inclusion has still been a great thing for POG shareholders. SP up around 20% over the last month despite the news flow being (on balance) negative. No way to tell whether they'll drop on Monday or not, though. It may be that their profit-taking is already done, and they'll go up again. Glad to be invested here rather than there, though.
Wouldn’t recommend clicking on the link from parry400 - it’s been posted all over multiple boards overnight. Reported as possible spam/malware.
@Tony, not a prediction, more a "could happen, don't be fooled if it does" thing.
Hope you're right about someone building a stake. Certainly possible and the market has to wake up to this sometime. If you are right we will find out soon enough. I think Hav alone puts us in the 40-50p range (and probably more) once the market wakes up. The market "waking up" is a strange thing, though. A share can be undervalued by almost everyone for a long time and then suddenly it becomes something all the cool kids (er, fund managers) want a piece of, and it takes off. It's not always logical.
@Viking "From my view and not including the UT transaction, there was a lot of buying which overshadowed easily the sales figure."
No doubt. But if no one had been selling they'd have had to abandon the day-long tree shake and drive it higher to get the shares they needed. Too bad they got away with it, but that's life.
@Jerry, interesting thoughts on the MMs. Yes, I could easily see it panning out that way, a tree shake first thing in the morning, then a rise through the day as they have to cover their shorts.
Seems like a risky game for them to be playing, though. They have to know that a Scal RNS could drop in the morning, and to have gone into the weekend with any shorts at all seems a little crazy. But they probably made enough money on Friday to give themselves a lot of room.
No rush on the weighting thing. Obviously, it would be nice to know if we have another huge buy coming in December, but the fact is, we're now in an environment where we could have a huge buy coming in at any time from other places besides GDXJ. The world has changed for GGP due to the last results and the mining lease, and GDXJ has merely helped the SP catch up a little bit to the reality.
As some of you have asked about the effect on other shares after GDXJ inclusion. Please see POG. It appears even that got included into GDXJ on Friday. After hours there was a 91M UT trade. Similar to GGP, since Monday, it went up by 4p on Wednesday and then rinsing started but on Friday after hours 91M trade and a 2M trade. But the SP at auction is still down. Wonder at what price it will open up on Monday.
Was still good buying outside the big buy. SP was at 25 before the MM’s went looking for shares. I think she will ping around 25 - 27 till COP Wednesday settling at 26p COP Mon - Wed ( will give the traders a few days play) we will then be ready for the push up to 30p. If GH gives us a wink and a nudge about SW that is. IMHO
TmT,
Your prediction of tomorrows SP maybe rubbished by a few but it’s not an unreasonable assumption in my thoughts.
With future SP predictions of 50p - £1 , then 35p is not unreasonable considering there is a stake builder sniffing and buying.
It may not hit 35p tomorrow but by the end of the month 35p plus is very possible .
Just a feeling that the mms have a few nuggets stashed and will open higher to benefit.
That and a couple of rns releases coming
35p open tomorrow
Thats my thoughts
Feel free to shoot me down
Monday will rocket
Hi TmT. Sorry been on the phone for past two hours. I will come back on weighting’s issue tomorrow as I am tired and I do find it a technical challenge!
On the subject of why 27 and not 35, I presume that as it was an auction the auctioneer just bid up the price till he got the number that he needed - 121m or whatever. My guess is that the mms went into the auction with a large long knowing that they would be selling into the auction and were happy to be naked short a certain amount above the 22p last traded. That price turned out to be 27 and on Monday they will be looking to cover that short at or below 27p. Hence the opening tree shake.
You know what, fallen? I shouldn't have posted that last one. Your motives are your own and I have no call to suggest you had a bet or something. I apologise for that.
If I had done what you are suggesting I wouldn't be telling people to hold for the value and not get fooled by a drop, that any drop is temporary. Why would I be saying that if I was hoping to buy on Monday? Your suggestion has no more basis than mine did.
Done for the night. Good luck all.
Good lord MM. It was nothing of the sort. I typed a long answer to your post .but you know ..it's just not worth any attention.
@fallen
No, I wasn't looking for that when I looked at them and I can't give an example, if there is one. It's the reason I've said any drop, if it comes, will be temporary. It's why I've said all along it would be crazy to be trading this share.
I'm going to turn this around. Why are you so desperate for everyone to believe it MUST GO UP on Monday? Why do you care so much? What's so special to you about Monday? Got a bet on it or something? Why does even the suggestion it >might< drop bother you so much? What's the problem? Are you that insecure in your investment that you can't stand to see a down day or even have it be mentioned as a possibility? I can't imagine you are, your posting history doesn't suggest that. So what's the problem exactly?
I could extend that question to others as well.
Shorters, politicians and nappies are all full of it !!!
No idea TMT, but then I'm a fish farmer turned wholesaler. Until there is something concrete to quantify and analyse from Scally it's all speculation...but it is fun to speculate!
treturn that is by far the dumbest de-ramp ive ever heard, it takes a week or so max to drill a hole and move to the next, u think they are sat around for a month for assays and then going “mope nothing there, lets try over here”
Im done, these people have an agenda people be warned, im done for the weekend, can listen to the dribble.
Just remember the wolves and the sheep
@EP - love the nappy reference :)
Thanks, threeturn. Re: Scally, I'm pretty optimistic. Those NW holes are really, really intriguing. Why would you drill more than one there if you didn't find anything?
It doesn't matter what shenanigans are played on Monday and Tuesday, neither does it matter what the opening price will be. What matters is whether the price at the end of the week is higher than at the beginning. Unless, of course, you've been shorting the share, in which case you should invest in a nappy manufacturer as you'll need their products a lot this coming week.
I have to say I agree TMT. There may well be further shenanigans on Mon / Tues, the truth is none of us can really predict what the MMs (and presumably their algorithms included here..is it a person or a program making decisions?) or other large buyers or seller's are going to do. It is as you say a volatile period, but one that I first beleive will pass and we will continue to rise overall. I am a little concerned about the amount of dare I say ramping about the upcoming scally results by many on here. Yes there is a potential upside that may be somewhere between small and humongous but in truth we just don't know. PaddySat has shown us they are drilling here and there but are they finding anything or are they not finding and then looking elsewhere? Scally or no Scally I still think this is a hold and won't b e selling whatever goes on in the short term or before we hear the MRE which I certainly think we can be more confident about.