Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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You hang in there Greggie SD cut his teeth on the sort carry on and is straight off the street in the corporate world - and he as razor sharp teeth now so watch out doo wap a doo biss wassie
Spot on Ace. SD is the business. He is building for the future, no doubt about it.
Dipp, liking your line of thought in regards to NCM's BOD following their rules and maybe leaving the door ajar for us.
GLA
Dipp, I think you are right on the bid/takeover. I was never in the takeover camp but firmly in the HAV buy out but, in the short term at least, is off the table for me now. And I do think SD fancies his chances (and I think behind the scenes he is some way down the funding road) so I just went out and bought me another 400000 and my minister for war went and bought another 100000. Can not wait for the next installment of this wonderful story - however grim the share price might be.
...And, BTW, Shaun Day doesn't just have the financial experience, from years in the industry, but clearly, he also has the nous, and already has, to take on the corporate games that a major player(s) has, and will, no doubt, continue to throw our way!
IMHO, I can't see any issue with funding. It's just what that pans out to be. I can't believe that Shaun Day wouldn't have discussed the possible option of Newcrest Mining NOT taking up the 5% option with the banks and the term sheets. The 5% we haven't 'given away', has added value, again IMHO.
So, basically, do we eventually go down the bank loan road, the placing road, or some combination of both?
That all said, I'm more than comfortable with the MD, above probably any other MD in the industry, to take us through the best possible path for shareholders.
GLA & DYOR! TT
I think NCM's BOD will need a lot more official proof of prospectivity on top of a DFS to be able to get a bid past their own internal red tape given how this 5% played out such as a much larger resource estimate once they can drill from underground - I now think the risk of a bid/takeover is lower personally.
Main risk is if Shaun can't fund us into to development but he wanted to retain 30% so I presume he fancies his chances :-)
Thanks Dip. So if NCM had bought the 5% it would have increased the value of Havieron, by declining they are sticking two fingers up at the GGP independent valuation raising the likelihood of a takeover from NCM which completely ignores GGP's valuation. Hardball stuff from our joint venture 'partners'.
Cheers Dip! TT
This link should work so the article can be read :-)
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.afr.com%2Fcompanies%2Fmining%2Fcagey-newcrest-baulks-at-havieron-gold-price-tag-20220819-p5bb5b
Another interesting take on the whole issue from 'The Australian Financial Review' today, just to add to everything else (Sub only, but thanks to Pr0t0n on the ADVFN BB)...
""While Newcrest said the decision was based on price, it may also be an important tactical move designed to avoid a price discovery event for Greatland Gold, which many observers believe is a logical takeover target for Newcrest.
Had Newcrest agreed to pay $US60 million for the extra 5 per cent stake in Havieron, it would have put an implied $US300 million value on Greatland’s 25 per cent stake in Havieron."
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/cagey-newcrest-baulks-at-havieron-gold-price-tag-20220819-p5bb5b
Taverham, price went up about 40% on the 60 million valuation news?
The market marked us down a few weeks back because we were losing 5% for a low price and following the news we are retaining the 5% the market has marked us down again [for now] . Hope the penny drops soon rather than our sp!
I saw a post yesterday that questioned why the SP was still languishing a tad the day before a possible big announcement re Hav from NCM. I agreed internally that there was something missing from our volumes yesterday, as this was not just drill results but potentially the 5% and the updated MRE2.
I 100% am aware of some of my greatest friends on here disagreeing with me that something doesn't smell right, and to me it still doesn't.
Whatever spin we might put on it, and I agree it's great to keep the 5% for sure...I am still slightly taken aback that NCM didn't take it. It could be lack of available funds after all their own SH griping plus other projects plus they already have 75% etc etc.
However, SB is a savvy and ruthless operator. If I were him I'd have snapped SD's hand off, because he wants to show his punters the money and surely in time, that would give NCM even more.
Maybe it is simply timing and they already have an almighty piece of us.
Now it is really up to SD to show his expertise in raising funds and overcoming any short and longer term challenges re monies for loans , further explanation and mining.
A valued poster and investor here last night said that he would be interested to see what hat trick SD might soon pull out of his bag for us, as he has recently. I too await that with great interest!
Perplexed of Panama!
Yesterday Greatland owned 30% of Havieron and, as a result of an agreement made some years ago, the possibility that today it would only own 25% but would be receiving $60 million in exchange for 5%.
Today Greatland still owns 30% but will not receive $60 million.
It has kept 5% and foregone $60 million.
That places a value of only 20 x $60 million on the whole of Havieron = $1,200,000,000.
In the circumstances that 5% looks to me like a good deal for Greatland.
That 5% gained today could now be sold at full market+ price!
I’m not an accountant, but the fact that NCM’s mineral resource corresponds to that of GGP’s valuation, can this be included in the assets of our company and help strengthen our loan application criteria?
Well can't say I was expecting that but deliriously happy at the outcome....bring it on. Shaun you are a genius.
'Best possible outcome'
It will take a while for the gold dust to settle.
Love it @ mushroom.
Not to forget that the (eventual) divis to help fund my pension drawdowns that I'd pencilled in for my GGP holdings have just gone up by 20%..... Happy.
Hey Mush, I hope your dessert spoon has a shovel based design....
The cream always come to the top - form is temporary, class is permanent
Well I am happier than a pinging metal detector. 30% of one of the biggest gold mine puddings in history, topped with copper flakes and nickel custard. What on Earth is there to worry about? Let the shorters have their fun for the moment and then, sooner or later, our prize will come more sharply into focus.
I've got my dessert spoon ready for when we invite some bankers round for dinner.
Dip all correct bar the hurdle rate which was NOT MET ie they wanted a higher return for the borrowing needed to pay the $60m
My viewpoint very much that I was always annoyed NCM would potentially get the 5% cheap with this option exercise and the ridiculous rules within it despite the funding assistance and am 100% confident that Shaun can work around the decision, the SP matters when I decide to slice/exit etc. and that isn't pre production and Shaun himself stated he'd never have inserted or agreed to this option exercise into the JV.
Surely a far worst scenario would have been NCM winning the price determination and the 5% being priced far less and absolutely trashing the SP and then even if NCM took up the 5% we'd still probably have the NCM loan not fully paid off, an even lower 5% outcome than Shaun was able to achieve and probably a far lower SP than we did after the $60m was declared to try and work back up from.
Definitely very feasible that GGP pushing up the valuation to this level meant that the financial protocols set within the company meant that the hurdle rate of return for the project tolerances was exceeded making it very difficult for the BOD to get the transaction authorised, on top of which they were having to justify a valuation higher than they themselves put forward for the option exercise.
As for NCM deciding not to sell us 5% for $85m.....probably because they know that longer term 5% returns more than $85m, I would focus again on the fact that it is the hurdle rate of return being exceeded outside project tolerances that was stated as the main reason for not proceeding.