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Hard to read the BB now.
It's either the tedious nay saying de rampers. Or the ridiculous SP reality deniers...
Both are impossible to swallow.
Then we get this scary thread about "How committed are you"... jeez.
In Mag 7 when Brenner & McQueen are looking to recruit Gunslingers for the impoverished Mexican village. So the scene in the Saloon. Yes?
The naive farmer looks at a man with multiple scares, and says. "Look hes tough, we need him".
The more savvy compadre says "No... we need the man who gave him those scars !!!" RIGHT!
Equate to here. Those recounting 6 plus figure losses. 38p to 20p I dont need ! I too sat hovered over the button of 2 Mill shares to sell at 37.6p BID last Xmas. Bit said no, Scally coming, believe the hype, hold on...So I AM weak, as failed to press... yes...
I need to hear from the people that pressed, and NOW bought back at 18p...
Thats who I can learn from.... decisive Investors, not traders, but those that really understand over bought markets...
Losing money, paper or otherwise is easy. Being smart enough, and with all your research, to know when it's over sold, and when to later buy back.... is a skill.
That's my lesson.
Cheers.
All I can say is as Hydros list I held 3 million last year I now hold 2.5 million of which 1.5 million has been purchased this year. This tells you the decisions I made. I agree investing is one you have to remove emotion from and research all official data to ensure you make the best decisions for you. I expect many on this bb have been led that's up to them but as most know that's not for me. Glh
Tymers, you been trading? You naughty naughty boy!
Good post Strummer. I don't think there were too many that managed to sell at the top. In any case when invested in an explorer and there are results pending on a highly prospective target like Scally I am not sure many would have risked selling at that point. There were still opportunities to sell in the low 30's high 20's after Scally news. That is where the more sophisticated investors may have won. Alas I am not one of those and have held all they way since March 2020 without selling. For me I am happy to hold for the long term and then add when opportunities like 18/19/20p come around like this and accumulate as many shares as possible.
@Strummer "I need to hear from the people that pressed, and NOW bought back at 18p...
Thats who I can learn from.... decisive Investors, not traders, but those that really understand over bought markets..."
Sorry, but you're describing a trader. An investor looks at the long term value and says, "Today's price is lower than the value, and sufficiently lower to justify the risks and the time it will take to receive the value, and therefore I will buy and hold."
Now, maybe some investors believed the value proposition was no longer there at 37p, and good for them if that's their analysis. Maybe I was wrong in thinking that it was still there. If we are only at 40p in a year's time and 45p in two years, I'll think I got the value proposition wrong, and that I should have sold, instead of added at 36p like I did.
I still think I got the value proposition right. I still think I'm going to make very good money on that 36p buy. And that's good enough for me, because I have no crystal ball.
I don't think the shares were overvalued at 36p. I think there's been a market aberration (various theories as to why) that has caused them to be significantly undervalued in recent months. Investors can't predict when shares are going to be undervalued or overvalued by the market. Your premise is either that they can predict an undervaluing coming (and should sell and then buy back) or that 36-38p was overvalued. I reject both of those premises.
Matml74 - "There were still opportunities to sell in the low 30's high 20's after Scally news. That is where the more sophisticated investors may have won."
Please show me where we could of sold in the low 30's after Scallywag results.
(1) We were already at 33p before Scally results
(2) Upon Scally results we immediately dropped to 21p before climbing briefly back to 28p
(3) Most investors took a risk assessment on where they thought bad Scally results would leave us, and a 10p drop was for most investors priced in.
(4) Once the SP climbed back to 28p very quickly (same day) we thought that was that.
(5) As our CEO said, he thought that the shares had been oversold, as did most investors.
So without hindsight, I think most here thought they where doing the correct thing by holding and the SP returning back quite quickly.
Hindsight Eh
For one glorious moment today I thought we might be heading for an inexplicable peak, apparently with no known reason, but it petered out unfortunately, so I think predicting it will open higher tomorrow or lower tomorrow is anybody's guess.
Sorry TMT.
Your right. I should really embrace the "I'm down 6 figures so show commitment" thread as a worthwhile multi posting learning experience ......
I simply thought that an alternate learning experience may be perhaps more usefully asking for the rational and reasoning of those that maybe actually saw an unsustainable top (see Zoros recent post perhaps?).
Actually picked it & then utilised it to enhance funds.
Maybe they then had anything worthwhile to tell and for me to learn from - suspect there were some perchance that called it?
My bad. Let's continue to wring hands over every hourly 0.1p price movement. That's the stuff!
If you
Will forgive / indulge me.
Clearly my bad.
Petersalkeld... "petered out"
I like that... and very true (if you'll excuse the pun?
@Strummer
False dichotomy. There are more choices than you listed.
Sorry again TMT.
Clearly a shallow thinker. Only had 2 not 10s of alternate views on usefulness of many recent posts.
My bad once again.
Will leave you to it. Sorry that my attempts to learn from those that didn't do as I did lack intellectual rigour required here.
Evening.
Spade, Sorry my badI thought it got back to low 30's. I agree with you when it got to high 20's I didn't envisage a drop to the teens and so held like most others I expect. It is what it is. An opportunity to add more.
@Strummer
Not sure I understand the hostility. I wasn't endorsing the thread you criticised. As a general rule, I've valued your posting, just disagreed with this aspect of this one.
Maybe you aren't being hostile and I've misread you, if so I apologise. Either way, ATB to you.
TMT.
No problem with you mate. Your one of half a dozen posters on here I look up to, & as have always said admire your rigor & analysis.
I think perhaps in this case, as often in texting, we didnt quite communicate and it got a bit frustrating. Perhaps you havnt understood what I meant, and I hadn't expressed it clearly?
My point fyi.
There is a thought, as I read also in Zoros strong post the other day, that with what was published only (the 4.2 Mill equiv etc), that this is worth (say) 20p odd. Agree or disagree that's the premise.
Ok that's got nothing to do with potential, or extras in the yet to be formally announced holes etc. Just what's out there officially right now.
So. . Accepting that for sake of debate.... when this went past to 22,24,28,32,34 and up to my test Bid offer of 37.6p.... then I posted that it could be said it had got Over Bought....meaning for it's current declared worth... again note, NOT Over Valued, as you seemed to have picked up on.
It's not to say it might not eventually on new outputs be valued fine at 60p or whatever. But just not now, not on the official data so far, this was the premise I was working on.
Now selling as over bought isnt a trader in my eyes. Not like someone picking up 10 or 20% and moving on, not caring where it goes from there etc.
But rather as Investors us seeing what you, me and many other LTH didnt. E.G. That at that time it was over bought as on purely published data it had got out of hand - yes?
If one had the savy to sell. Clearly to buy back when it corrected down for now (20p say). To then sure await the genuine leg ups on new data yet to be put out etc.
To me that's not trading, that's rather a very switched on Investor, that I for one was clearly not. But I was Interested if anyone out there at the time had sussed it & so would admit to it, and had any lessons to share on it.
I just potentially found that more useful personally, than threads on being loads down (as I am too). As we didnt recognise it was at circa 38p Over BOUGHT...not over VALUED longer term again note.
That's it. Hope that makes sense now.
Accept you may still disagree with the theory still. But hopefully see at least where I was coming from?
Have a good evening.
Sell when others are greedy (over bought)
To clarify before someone jumps on my back i mean over bought when it went off to 37p
@Strummer
Thanks for taking so much time to clarify. Obviously, I conflated "over-bought" with "over-valued" and as such missed your point.
I'd still say it's more a trader's concept than an investor's concept -- in my opinion, an investor would be more focused on over-valued. Investors can't look at value today (your 20p, for example).
But your original comment would have made a lot more sense if I hadn't conflated the two, and I either wouldn't have answered at all or would have answered differently. So the miscommunication is largely on me, and I appreciate you making it so clear this time that even I couldn't miss it. :)
I freely admit I'm not good at entry and exit points on my investments. I still think you are talking about trader concepts here but I think trading concepts can have their benefit in helping investors choose their entry and exit points. I don't doubt that I have some things to learn in this area. Funny because I work with people who seem to just have this down.
ATB.