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They have spend years trying to turn this round and got nowhere the management team are crap
Well I can only give you a fact as it currently stands the now. First group are not making any profits in a large section of Thier company. So future dividends won't happen imo. Even when they do start making money it will be less that pre covid levels , as the simple facts are.,Lots of company's are now letting employees work from home. On top of that I'm currently working in a depot that cannot keep the drivers and the running schedules have been depleted numerous times with many bus routes cancelled or simply not showing up . Customers are getting fed up waiting for buses that never come. Also another point I wish to make is that there is a small about of people who will not travel anymore on buses due to the fact that people are simply ignoring the fact coverings legislation .I personally would not travel on the buses now and in sure many others feel the same. So personally I hope my full tender is successful and in regards to buying into first, that's been a big massive mistake that I've ever made, so I will never buy ( even at a smaller price) which I think it's coming
If you have tendered all your shares then you wont be able to sell them until the outcome of the tender offer is known.
Your question below is basically whether FGP is a good investment and whether the share price will rise or fall. Nobody can make that decision apart from you.
Hi
I have hopefully sold on the tender offer 39% of my holdings. The remaining shares I own are now sliding down. I am still in profit but its diminishing fast. A question for you.
1/ Would you hold on to your shares no matter what in the hope you may get a cash dividend or something simialar
2/ Sell the lot and hopefully rebuy at a lower price
3/ Hold the shares and top up at a lower price to raise the Averages (and get any dividends)
I am sure there are many more savvy investers who will have a view. So difficult this one ..
It’s mainly PIs who took the tender offer and Cost Capital as per agreement but expect IIs to hold on to their shares for cash dividend and higher SP in mid to long term.
I’m expecting PIs to be accepted for all most all of their shares in the tender offer
Agree. My point was more about the blissfully ignorant that will just sit n their hands no knowing what to do, should they even read the terms of the offer let alone know what to do.
There will definitely be some who don't take up the tender offer but suspect most will. Hard to predict outcome with certainty but will find out on Thursday. Retail investors make up a very small % of holders.
I think you over estimate the number of people who will actually do anything and accept the offer.
A lot of retail shareholders will either ignore the info, have missed it or will do nothing.
It happens a lot where so many shares are now held in nominee broker accounts that rely on messages being sent and read under the corporate actions banner.
To be honest mate I think everyone will tender so I'm expecting 60% back in shares: (. If that's the case in looking at 18,000 shares being returned (. I think everyone has had enough of this company.
Understood and than you for your able assistance. Much appreciated.
Brilliant. Clear and plain English. Thank you
Was odd timing, 1pm was the deadline to register to say you were tendering shares and 6pm tonight is the record date. Therefore anybody buying this afternoon was in effect losing out on the tender offer. Not surprised by the fall. Very happy I tendered all my shares, will be interesting to see if all my shares were tendered or if it gets scaled back. Need to wait a few days to find out.
Paul you are right. If everybody takes up the tender offer in full then everybody will get around 39% tendered. I assume some people won’t tender their shares so will get more than that, however with today’s falls expect most institutions to fully take up the tender offer.
Not sure you if read the small print . On mines it says if everyone takes the tender offer you may be capped @ 38% for the sale of your total shares. Or was it 39% . There abouts.
Good look !
Can you be certain they will drop ?
I am in profit and don't want to crystalize my shares for tax reasons, as am selling losses to recuperate capital gains on a property sale earlier in the year ( now that you have to pay HMRC CGT within 30 days ! ) with no respite before year end !!
I am not sure I would have taken the offer with the heavy buying recently with no possibility of 105p for them so seems a lot of people have confidence .
We will see soon now .... Cheers !
The deadline with II is midnight tonight. I have tendered all my shares. Let's see whether the lot goes at 105p and whether the price declines when they go ex rights next week. I am anticipating that most other shareholders will also tender all their shares so don't expect all my shares to go. My tactic, for what it is worth, is to buy all my tendered shares back at a lower price immediately after they announce what % of tendered shares were redeemed.
Public transport will become a necessity if they want to put in place the 2030 goals. As it stands we do not have the charging point infrastructure for home charging put in place nor capacity to install numbers needed, this is before we consider the electricity capacity to charge. that coupled with cost of electric cars will mean many of us will have to resort to public transport .
This is a long term view though.
Howsthatlse: Very good point re: unknown costs to FGP as regards fees related to this whole process, and on reflection information that is conspicuous by its absence. I feel that this is a difficult one to call as to where this might go post restructuring of share capital. Shares are changing hands currently around £1.01 but current buyers will not benefit from the tender offer, so there must be some belief that this current share price will at least hold up, or that they are hoping for a dividend associated with a share consolidation if the full tender offer is not taken up, or future dividends associated with the disposal of other elements of the business etc.. Folks must remember that FGP have not paid a dividend since 2013, and carry a substantial amount of liability/debt, although they did make a profit in 20/21 for the first time in years. However furlough/tax breaks/gov support etc would have contributed to this at least in the UK. IMHO there must be a bright future in public transport if we are to achieve our goals in the green agenda but it needs significant investment to get there and it will not happen over night.
(1) A sublime and highly beneficial account of how this works going forward. Unless I am mistaken, shareholders can often get nasty surprises when it comes to fees deducted - hence fees charged by JP Morgan and overall cost to FGP for this entire process to complete and reflected in year end accounts. This figure is in their hands and so the tendency or risk that number is larger that expected. The consolidation process and issuance of new share certificates can also be disappointing but I accept your sums as presented. (3) For those like Boris who believe that buses (not trams) have a future in the UK one can only hope this is true as it is in Europe, the future looks bright - if public transport is somehow made to be fashionable and efficient with phone apps, punctuality, oyster cards, reliable hop-on, hop-off routine, theoretically yes. Fewer cars with congestion fees and higher priced EV alternatives offer some hope but long queues, full buses that result in disappointment, waiting and breakdowns like we see on UK trains on a daily basis would create disincentives. When buying FGP and Stagecoach my long term view was optimistic. Its when major shareholders sell up. Stagecoach PLC is also finding things difficult and so is probably merging with National Express PLC to further undermines confidence in this sector.
Many people think that dividends will come soon in first group. give yourself a shake if you think this. First will give a special dividend for the sale of America and that will be it for years to come imho. Regardless how you feel about first or expectations this company is in a very very bad way and going south each passing day. Driver shortages etc. One day I expect the government and local authorities to step in and take the buses etc into public ownership and if that has to happen where does it leave first group ? , Answer - no where.
Disagree, expect offer to be heavily oversubscribed and the price to fall once the tender offer is over. The share price would fall by any future special dividend (once it goes ex rights) so I wouldn't make any decisions based on that. For me there is only one rationale strategy, offer all your shares in the tender offer and if you want to remain a shareholder (you probably will still be anyway as sure offer will be scaled back) then use proceeds to buy back what you want at a lower price.
I am down as well but maybe the selling price of the offer is currently marginly attractive. However, regardless of covid worries and the current share price if you sell you miss out on any future dividends especially if the selling uptake is not high and not worth the 40% of shares in circulation . Whatever is sold increases the share value due to millions of shares being taken out of circulation. My guess is that the uptake will not be very high so a cash dividend or other way will be found. These are all possible better earners than selling at 105p.... crystal ball time me thinks...
With covid rates surging I can't see travel shares doing well any time soon, so although I am well down, I am taking the offer.
B.A.Y.E. scheme is great value but not flexible. work out what get for your money taking tax and national insurance into consideration some of the shares in your three year pot will have only cost you less than 20p.
I would leave them where they are .