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Yep, that looks like a reason.
News
FTSE 250 ----------
RBC raises FirstGroup price target to 200 (195) pence - 'outperform'
So why is the sp dropping?
Well the results, which don't seem bad to me, have gone down like a cup of cold sick judging by the share price today.
Not looking good.
Started: RoyGa, 4 Jun 2024 17:39
Last post: Davde, 4 Jun 2024 23:00
FGP have no risk to fare revenues by competition, if it happens! They get paid a fee hence quote re already nationalised. No impact on SP.
Hopefully will not dent FGP income.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1047966/virgin-trains-eyes-return-to-railways-in-direct-rivalry-with-avanti-1047966.html
SHARE
BROKER RATING CHANGES
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Berenberg raises FirstGroup price target to 195 (191) pence - 'buy'
Started: slpj, 26 Apr 2024 08:30
Last post: slpj, 26 Apr 2024 08:30
LONDON, April 24 (Reuters)
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"Shares in FirstGroup, which runs buses and also has contracts for rail services in western England, to Edinburgh from London, and some commuter services in London, fell 2% in early deals. Analysts said FirstGroup's stock does not price in any future rail contracts, hence the small move."
"This is not a surprise. Labour have been talking about this for absolutely ages," said Liberum analyst Gerald Khoo. "The only thing that's slightly more tangible is they're much closer to getting into power."
Not a surprise, but not welcomed either judging by the selling volumes.
Started: slpj, 25 Apr 2024 08:31
Last post: slpj, 25 Apr 2024 16:07
I should have sold at 184 a little while back.
If labour wins election and does what they say SP will nose dive to half. Will they do a U turn like other things they have said and changed their minds.
Jeez. Just seen the news. Labour pledge transport renationalisation. 😬
The SP has dropped. Is it being seen as bad that BlackRock has increased its holding?
Started: slpj, 27 Mar 2024 15:09
Last post: slpj, 27 Mar 2024 15:09
Buy David Martin 182.40 GBX 100,000 400,000
But I'm confused. The news is reporting it as a sale.
"This annoucement is a correction to replace the announcement released at 13:25 this afternoon as there was an error on the attached FCA form.
FirstGroup plc (the “Company”) announces that it was notified on 26 March 2024 that a Person Closely Associated with David Martin, Company Chairman, sold 100,000 shares at 182.40 pence per share. The transaction took place in London (XLON) on 26 March 2024."
Started: ripley94, 8 Jun 2023 09:39
Last post: slpj, 18 Mar 2024 16:13
Why did it go up well past 180 last week, and why has it fallen back again today?
Disappeared 😁😁😁
No First just start to make money . As a insider I can see it. Every route that wasn't profitable has been cancelled. Huge number of office workers has dissatisfied 😁. More and more new buses hence workshop cost reduce . And no more few buses travelling together on this same route
Big jump last few days. Fall back again before full year?
Probably a combination that a half year loss (41m) was announced late last year due to one off £142m pension bill and that the share buy back scheme will be drawing to a close in the coming weeks.
Started: damofarl, 17 Jan 2024 23:04
Last post: damofarl, 17 Jan 2024 23:04
Fgp has a very nice 1 year chart.
I think so. Buyback still continuing. Looking for around 220p by the end of the year.
Is this soon to make a new high I wonder?
This is definitely ticking up again. Steady buying. Don't think it's all buy back either.
Ticking up?
Https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12763257/MARKET-REPORT-Bus-battery-deal-just-ticket-Group.html?ico=mol_desktop_money-newtab&molReferrerUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fmoney%2Findex.html&_ga=2.119389066.247895726.1700344404-829466088.1679172563&_gl=1*sa8rlh*_ga*ODI5NDY2MDg4LjE2NzkxNzI1NjM.*_ga_XE0XLFFF16*MTcwMDM0NDQwNC40Mi4xLjE3MDAzNDQ0MTIuMC4wLjA.
State Street Nominees Limited have been buying. They have 15% share. Are they buying on behalf of private equity to do a takeover?
Taverham. - Company announcement. Can't trust what they say. They always print bright future and hide bad
Roy, company announcement in RNS.
This company like wasting money. E.g they have started running Leicester to Birmingham Airport mini coaches which is definitely not going to be successful but management can't see . Instead they should expand local service and concentrate on them.
Taverham - Reasons what that's makes you think profit wii go up.?
Profits to beat expectations by a huge margin should lift the sp here by 5 to 10% imv,we shall see.
Started: RickyKeys, 4 Oct 2023 08:10
Last post: RickyKeys, 4 Oct 2023 08:10
Started: RoyGa, 12 Sep 2023 08:21
Last post: RoyGa, 12 Sep 2023 08:21
Does anyone know how many more is left for buyback? Once this is done SP will go down
Started: Bae146, 15 May 2023 17:50
Last post: CallingShots, 29 May 2023 09:35
7 consecutive down days.
FGP has actioned December plan supporting the share price from collapsing with share buyback after the predicted lose of TPE contract. Fridays buyback stood at 497,695, expecting similar numbers for todays buyback and also for the next few days, will trade next week when the share price will fall to around 107 in my estimation, it is my opinion.
Last post: Indianainvestor, 12 May 2023 08:41
Nonsense, the appointment of Mobico (National Express) would require a public procurement process.
The loss of this contract is a double blow to FG as they will lose not just the management fee but also soon lose the lucrative management of the rail replacement contracts which the Govt have allowed them to self award themselves since this franchise began
I have a feeling Mobico, which was conveniently announced just yesterday will be taking over the contract.
Either that, or the timing is a massive coincidence.
The government will soon see the rigidty of the whole set up. FGP was not the source of the problem.
The reality is changing management will not change current service delivery in the short term, the issue is a lack of available drivers and this being addressed. Will they keep under direct control for long or award back to FGP or another provider time will tell but with an election looming suspect it will be decided sooner rather than later.
FIRSTGROUP PLC - Statement on TransPennine Contract
11/05/2023 7:31am
PR Newswire (US)
Firstgroup (LSE:FGP)
Intraday Stock Chart
Thursday 11 May 2023
Click Here for more Firstgroup Charts.
FIRSTGROUP PLC
STATEMENT ON TRANSPENNINE EXPRESS CONTRACT
FirstGroup plc (‘the Group’) today announces that it has been notified by the Department for Transport (‘DfT’) that it will not exercise its option to extend the current arrangements for the TransPennine Express (‘TPE’) National Rail Contract.
The DfT will appoint its Operator of Last Resort to take over delivery of passenger services on the TPE network from 28 May 2023 when the existing agreement expires. The DfT’s decision regarding the TPE National Rail Contract extension relates only to TPE and the Group’s other rail businesses are not affected.
For a sustained period during the first year of the current contract, TPE posted its best performance results for a decade. However, in 2022 TPE’s service levels declined due to circumstances not wholly within the operator’s control, mainly the challenging industrial relations environment including the withdrawal of longstanding industry-standard overtime arrangements while undertaking unprecedented driver training requirements due to infrastructure upgrades. Following the introduction of an agreed recovery plan in February 2023, cancellations have fallen by approximately 40% and will continue to do so as more drivers become available over the next few months.
The Group is disappointed by the decision not to extend the National Rail Contract for TPE, given the investment and improvements we have made to the service over the years, which resulted in growing annual passenger numbers from 14m in 2004 to more than 29m before the pandemic.
Commenting, Graham Sutherland, FirstGroup Chief Executive Officer said:
“We have operated TransPennine Express and its forerunners since 2004, and are very proud to have served the communities across northern England and into Scotland, carrying millions of passengers and introducing new trains, new routes and more seats for our customers. Our team have worked extremely hard to improve services, including by recruiting and training more drivers than ever before. We have also worked closely with the DfT and Transport for the North on an agreed recovery plan as well as an improved offer on overtime working for our drivers.
“FirstGroup is a leading UK rail operator with a strong and diversified portfolio. Today’s decision does not alter our belief in the important role of private rail operators in the delivery of vital, environmentally-friendly transport for customers and communities across the UK.”
Notes to Editors
In FY 2022, TPE contributed £415.8m of revenue to the Group’s total of £4,591.1m; £13.2m of adjusted operating profit and £8.9m of attributable net income, which is the Group’s share of the relevant net post-tax fee income available for intra-company distribution.
Yesterday share buy back was 511 thousands and the day before losing the TPE contract 445 thousands, a lot questions from market must be answered by the management, form strike resolution to poor planning a head which lead to losing a contact which generated 14.9 million operating profit. I can see changes at the top in the near future.
Started: bvcxz70, 7 Jun 2022 19:26
Last post: bvcxz70, 11 May 2023 09:46
So this has happened, I called this ages ago, TPE have been cancelling trains since forever, next it will be Avanti West Coast, they have been in the news for cancelling trains. It seems to me it’s a FGP thing. If memory serves me correctly, I’m sure there was a vote years back to come out of rail franchising all together, probably wasn’t a bad call. Shame they have tainted the West Coast with the same brush. GWR another operator, out of the spotlight but not too far from controversy. We can keep banging the drum about the Emergency Measures Agreement (ERMA) but ultimately speaking under the ERMA they still have targets to meet and they are not meeting them. This will drop like a balloon but how far is anyone’s guess. I’ve sold, I’m done
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/avanti-trains-seeks-force-majeure-on-west-coast-contract-qcfv62h90
Are they taking the F**kin Michael.
itll be the same as GWR......continued to deliver govt ideology under the cloak , the 'distance' of being a private matter for a private company. And FGP will benefit under that sleight of hand...
Well damofarl I would say you will see them pigs flying sooner then you think. Let’s see what happens in October when the government makes their decision pal
bvcxz70; the point that somehwat debunks your ascertion is that the operator has to gain Dft approval for reduction of promised services (on a planned basis).
davde; "...It is clear that the reduction in services in this area are as a consequence of staffing availability which would apply regardless of who manages these services currently."
I'm not sure that is the case. FGP have run various rail franchises for a number of years so can hardly protest a lack of understanding of the lead times for training guards/drivers. FGP has made either a conscious decision or are incompetent to not ensure a full complement of essential staff, and to ensure the goodwill of those existing staff by devaluing of their roles. If you take Avanti, the majority of staff were TUPE'd over from the previous franchisee, Virgin, who to memory had 2 very swiftly resolved strikes under their long tenure. Which suggests that some franchisees can navigate a middle road, if they have both the desire and the skillset.
As for FGP being stripped of franchisees - i think pigs will fly first. FGP's stance has been very much led by Govt dogma. Until that changes, FGP are happy to pick up guaranteed payments with zero risk but potential upside whilst the Govt can distance itself from it's agenda under the guise of it being a private company dispute.
In the middle of this grandstanding, it is the customers who are suffering. And FGP shareholders who will benefit from sustained predictable zero risk income.
Started: Bae146, 11 May 2023 08:33
Last post: Bae146, 11 May 2023 08:33
The DFT pulling the plug was expected. FGP board warned time and time again about the public anger and the must do better, now they have to face the music and the huge problems a head, very sloppy management took their eyes off the ball pi**ing around with Arriva and Europe. I think once the buy back ends then we will see the real share value, for the time being I am staying out of investing in FGP.
The £75m share buy back commenced in Dec 22 has to date purchased just under 40m shares. So they are roughly two thirds of the way through the buy back process. How much the buyback is supporting the current price rise is debatable!
Thanks Bae126.. Already over 127. Hope they don't fall back.
Share buy back, have a look at ADVFN and you will have an accurate buy back numbers by FGP, my personal take is to wait few more days when it will be done and dusted. I hope by then the price will be near 122 mark.
Does anyone know why SP has gone up today and has been rising for last few days?
Started: Bae146, 4 May 2023 23:07
Last post: Chaiselongue, 4 May 2023 23:33
The government don't want the headache of running a train company. It's blustering
From the Guardian( TransPennine Express trains had the worst performance of any rail operator in the UK in March, with almost 1,000 trains fully or partly cancelled.
The train operator is owned by the First Group and its contract is due for renewal on 28 May, but MPs and metro mayors have called on the government to take TPE back into public ownership). For the time being I will set and watch.
Started: RoyGa, 2 May 2023 17:30
Last post: Chaiselongue, 3 May 2023 21:25
That would be a strange union given that isquared made a hostile bid for FG last year. Bid or no bid, summer passenger numbers must be up.
Gasman71 - I Squard might be playing clever games. Join forces with First to bid for Arriva but actually they might want First & Arriva both.
I think the share price rise is speculation that I Squared maybe back in for First Group. I can’t see them bidding for Arriva
David You welcome. Yes definitely is , special as First has never performed since Mori Lockheed left and he did well as they were buying council owed bus business at cut prices.
RoyGa thanks. A bit of a concern for me, especially if it involves either a fund raise or borrowing vast sums!