Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Efmody stuff the price, when Scotland didn't take it up for the NHS but if they re-submit on the wave of Alkindi news then, if it got passed this time could easily see old numbers, which mean multibagging.
need to implicate world sales of Alkindi and then geta premium fund sorted... then approach Scotland again to nail the miserable historical aberration.
Hard to foresee quite the hammering this one got this year imo.
With them being under 10p on the offer now it seems more instinctual to look for opps from growth in sales than to be negative over a possible funding shortfall so wanted to say thanks for the posts below as sniffing around for a position before the Sept update and the opinions here have been most useful.
Think most of us didn't foresee this share price action.
Company seem to have shot themselves in the foot by announcing that there will be funding shortfall following the Scottish decision. They should have raised the funds rather than make the announcement; a small placement and a Primary bid offer like others have done.
It's not like they attempted to raise but didn't succeed so informed the market.
I Thought most of the cash they raised was to fund the new trial and the US trial. so if they are burning cash it's paying for that. The problem with the SMC is a bummer but shouldn't cause that much of a problem they already stated that some places that usually follow their lead aren't so the situation is probably better than they first anticipated, I just wish they'd come out and say something positive on that subject.
Well, if they have 12 months cash I reckon most companies in this position would be looking to sure up cash position 6 months before they run out. If I knew there was to be no raise in next 6 months I would be a buyer of at least 100,000 shares, as new deals or progress with products could see a nice rise. As it is with no such assurances I could just be chucking 15% down the drain in the next week or so. Far safer just to wait for the funding, whatever it is, to be confirmed.
If you look at their 6 months results to 31/12/2021 (the most recent we have - we only have a trading update for the following 6 months), there is £5,889k expenditure on R+D, £3,069k on selling and distribution expenses, and £1,794 admin. I'd like to see the admin expenses lower, sure. But the lion's share of their cash burn is R+D. It's this that was fully funded by existing sales until the Scottish problem appeared. I don't mind them burning cash if it's them developing their pipeline of development, because that's the business plan. But I'd like to know how short the Scots have left them, and to have some sense of the scale of the raise or loan they'll need.
The problem is they are burning through cash. £16m will only cover 12 months worth of working capital. The current landscape is not favourable to companies who don't have a handle on cash control/generation so this will likely be subdued until there's a clearer understanding of how DNL will resolve their financing
Absolutely. So to summarise, todays pitiful sp is totally self inflicted. Even if Bungay had said in his comments todays results mean further funding would not be required in the short term this would be 50%+ up. The fact no comment was made leaves the Sword of Damocles dangling right over the buy button.
What they actually said was that the Scottish Medicines Consortium not recommending Efmody for NHS automatic reimbursement when treating CAH meant that further funding would be needed to reach profitability. Many pharmaceutical companies at this stage of development are not yet profitable. They reached the rare point a couple of years back where they had been able to say that they had enough revenue forecast from the drugs they had approved to get them through to profitability without further cash injection. The Scots meant they had to back-pedal on that one. But the amount of revenue they've lost from Scotland (and others who take their cue from Scotland) will be small relative to their other income, so it's not as if it's suddenly become a cash sinkhole. It's just that they no longer have a clear runway all the way.
So all they said is that they'll need some funds, from some source, at some point, and they'd look into their options, including the possibility of a non-dilutive placing. Nothing urgent (the results today show they have funds for the next 12 months). And not on a desparate scale.
When they explained all this, the share price was 33.5p. It dropped 50% on that day to 17p. It's now lower still. There's no way that particular detail justified that size of drop. Today's results show this continues to be a healthy business with approved drugs generating meaningful revenues. Hopefully it will now start to get back to a more appropriate market cap.
No idea, its just they said they needed one. Baffles me.
Looks undervalued to me...
With £16m cash, why would they need a placing with any urgency?
Hopefully they will use this rise to forward sell the placing that everyone has been worried about for months now and we can get it out of the way. Maybe even get a loan, unlikely as that may be.
Yes agreed and not nice! The free float remains low and small demand can lead to big rises in sp, works the other way too as we can see!
that this went over £2 and the more bullish commentators were targeting five pounds. Now folk are worried about the possibility of five pence. Hardest game in the world.
Tempted to pick up some shares at this level. Assuming a £9m 6 month cash burn rate, they still have a good 12 month cash runway. Phase 2 headline data due out towards the end of the year and they have started dosing on the pivotal phase 3 study. A £10m debt facility is probably all they need to get to a point where the share price will be significantly higher and an equity raise more palatable. Also a buyout potentially becomes more of a possibility at that point
Mer400. Agree, seemed unnecessary. Given the ii's backing DNL looks like they'd potentially prefer to take it private. Shame as I've been ready to pounce for a while.
I Think its the first time I'm seen a non profit company on here make a statement that they might need to raise more cash in the future but they won't tell us how or when or any update since. we've got 18 M in the bank at last statement. Why would you come out and but a damper on things when there is no need and you know it will impact the share price. I can only think of one reason.
In the short Q&A (24 mins or so) the CFO regretted the overly downbeat SMC and interims presentation. Said that a number of English formularies had now approved Efmody despite the SMC. With the Eton Pharma news later that same evening this stock is going back up. But … DYO research, starting here ;-)
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/video/diurnal-dnl-richard-bungay-interim-ceo-and-cfo
The sacked CEO’s Oh-so-stupid statement on the need for more funding is hard to retreat from but the Efmody did get approvals all over. It wouldn’t have go them if it didn’t work. Company said May European presentations very well attended, US ones in June presumably likewise. Perhaps we need a permanent CEO before we can move up but shockingly low valuation given its drug roster and cash level.
Will you put half your pay in the pot to help out?
Hi dnl expenses are crazy they lost over 9 million last year ! They are trying to do to much . Imo how they can win is cut the wages if the board by 50 percent. Put rand d on hold if they can . The ex ceo was on 500000 a year it was obscene for the revenue. They burn through approx 760000 a month as at dec 21 cash 24 million. So say that is now 19 million approx. They could carry and try to build up what they have makes more sense . Correct me if I’m wrong ? Great products but I feel the board have lacked skills to take it forward . I’m pretty certain Cambridge ticker cog has one of our board with them . Now that is a well run company! I will be buying dnl as I doubt it’s finished I bought from 29 p up to 60 plus trading it . I feel dnl is a takeover target and a great bolt on for another company . A slight drop under 10 and I’m ready to buy first lot . Good luck all . But as you know it could change as I follow price and volume action
Every single holder here has bought in at above the current ask and every single non holder thinks the current ask is too high, hence only sells. Impossible to sort finance in these circumstances. How did they ever get themselves into this position?
drifting slowly downwards ... so waiting to buy
seems plausible