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RNS 8th February: "the Icelandic Regulatory Approval, has decided to open a "Phase II investigation" into the Verne Transaction". This spooked investors because of the possibility of a delay or no sale. Share price crashes (further!).
RNS 6th March: "unconditional merger control approval in Iceland was granted on 5 March 2024". Problem from 8th February solved, share price jumps up.
Sort of logical except that the crash on 8th Feb was an over reaction.
ToD, I agree "value is meaningless IMO" in the very short term. This is not a share to day trade since you will be at an information disadvantage.
However in the longer term it is everything. Given that the liquidity problem has been dealt with this is the lowest risk way to double my money over the next 3-5 years I can find at the moment. Definitely one to buy and hold. It is currently the largest position in my portfolio and the one I will lose the least sleep over.
Hedge funds … with a share like this it’s a game of bluff … value is meaningless IMO … took 23.5p at open got 24.5p after auction .. could go back down to 20p or up to 30p … the big players know … we RIs do not.
Could well be what they have in mind. I don't fully understand how this share trades tbh, it doesn't move with logic
I reckon myself arqiva will IPO … as was intended in 2017 … delayed by Brexit uncertainty, but will take a while to complete … but will likely reward holders going forwards.
Ha yeah, should see us down a round 10% I should say..dear oh dear..my sentiments exactly though, UK market is beyond a joke. All the t/o bids are scooping up assets at 60% premiums plus and they still get half price assets. Just to reiterate this trades on less than a 5th of NAV by my reckoning....the towers business.. Arqiva... at full value trades far more cheaply than it's peers...so explain to me why now with this news of Verne sale is this being hammered..rates will go lower and this will look crazy cheap..very soon!
“ Although, at this stage, the Change of Control Consent is still conditional, the Company is confident that all conditions which will need to be met have either already been satisfied or will be satisfied shortly before completion of the Verne Transaction.‘
Errr so what more is needed? Jesus wept these “managers” are idiots.
Indeed so … wonder what the gap up will be - minus 10% given the current UK market? …;)
Verne approved, game on here...liquidity issues evaporated in one RNS
Just that it trades below 20% of NAV...
It's mindlessly discounted at the moment, I expect approval to be a formality
From what I can see today's RNS means that the company is getting on with what is required for the Verne sale and sorting out the liquidity problem although still waiting for regulatory approval. Hardly surprising that the lenders aren't objecting to something that will get them their money back however still good to have that box ticked and also, unless I've missed something, they don't seem to be demanding an extra pound of flesh for their trouble.
To me this all seems good but not game changing. Has anyone spotted any devils in the details that I have missed?
Longer term investors are already “loosers” and given potential losses the annual ISA contribution the least concern. While anyone holding DGI9 looking for a quick buck takes their risk - as now clearly highlighted in yesterday’s RNS.
In my view, the DGI9 share should have been suspended the moment the decision to wind down was made pending confirmation by shareholders - don’t really give a dam about sideline issues ….
I bought back more yesterday, revenues look fine, interest rates look like they will fall, I expect hedge funds to be dipping their hands into their pockets to buy me out.
GLA.
"All that will happen is that ISA holdings will move to trading accounts …"
I agree that your investment won't be wiped out in that case, however it will be involuntarily transferred out of your ISA and you will loose that amount of ISA allowance. Some investors aren't constrained by the 20K annual max you can transfer to an ISA; some are.
Another concern with an unlisted stock is that you can't easily sell it if you need to. Even if you are planning to hold to wind-up, the optionality still has value which is reflected in the price.
At first glance it looks like the RNS confirms what most posters on here expected. Why some shareholders are dumping is a mystery, it's a bit like being told it's going to rain then getting upset when it does.
The “company” also stated today it will look to add short term debt if needed assuming I read correctly.
All that will happen is that ISA holdings will move to trading accounts …
Volume isn't anything special, shorters taking advantage here I think, it's an infrastructure fund, the underlying holdings are not high risk...it's just liquidity issues
This may have spooked some investors who hold their shares in ISAs:
"The Board may reconsider the listing and Jersey regulatory status of the Company alongside the completion of the sale of the Company's Wholly-Owned Assets having regard to the proposed strategy for Arqiva at that time."
Reading the whole thing they are not proposing imminent changes, just considering costs, so I don't think it is anything to worry about for now. I remain convinced that I will receive over double the current share price over the next five years and have consequently added - outside my ISA.
Should add, the NAV valuation is due in April...I don't see how this trading update implies anything close to an 80% impairment...this is trading around a 5th of book value...liquidity issue resolved and this doubles or trebles via orderly sale and wind down IMO
Steady as she goes, underlying performance is fine..it's the fund level of liquidity which is poor and dragged this down.
I calc that the fund has approx 3.5x EV/EBITDA with Arqiva interest payments to come down materially in 2024 improving this..also new contracts at Arqiva and Verne growing at a 33% rate...it looks ok to me. CEO of subsea cable inv leaving not ideal but being sold and far less material to the fund. Cash of £14m is tight...needs to last until Verne sale or a smaller co. Can be sold..
I would say worth 30p now, 50p on sale of Verne approval/completion inline with Barclays SP target issued in Feb 24.
The financial calendar doesn't show anything for 2024 (yet) but last year results were on March 9th and in 2022 March 17th.
Does anyone know what date results are here?
More likely results have been mooted under the table… in my view … week to go shorts buying back my view.
A return to 30p seems logical in the short term. Better to buy here for the long game. The SP should react positively on news of sales so the end value can be calculated more clearly. If several of the early assets get 70/80% of NAV then the SP should move up accordingly.
I don't actually rule out getting about 80% of current NAV here in the long run