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Nice one, Ant !
Go to DGI9 website, click the link in the webinar RNS, register. Done.
Probably me being a simpleton here but how do you register for the webinar?
Their info on their RNS was insufficient.
The search for DGI9 in Brightalk.com does now show anything. Does anyone know? Cheers.
I mean I was being quite tongue in cheek.
It's not too difficult to place approximate figure against each business using published EBIDTA.
My worst calcs in a fire sale, assuming 10% selling fees is circa £280-£300m. Essentially, if you bought over 30p, you're not seeing much return for your £, unless you're expecting earn-out and reasonable values for remaining businesses.
They won't be able to say anything price sensitive- so not chance we find out about where they expect the updated valuations to land.
Two interesting questions for me:
1.) A bit more colour around what makes Arqiva unsuitable for immediate sale. What are they expecting/hoping to change that'll change this.
2.) Earlier RNSs mentioned they were going to try and get some additional liquidity to be able to fund Verne through to the closing of the sale. Has this been sourced- and if not, is it still needed.
1. How did you manage to lose £600m of shareholder value in one year?
2. How did you manage to invest £1.4bn and only return £200m in assets?
3. What are the new values the ascribe to the companies after recent review?
It is what it is .. value has no meaning when the hedgies are at play - they want people to fold at a loss. 24p buy cleared at 25.2 late in the after noon ... next buy 23.8p keeping shares to get average down.
GLA.
It's bonkers. My valuation is 30% lower than the worst case and still £70m higher than today.
Wait for the share to go into auction on the downside .. as the likely clue for the day's low. Hedge funds are crawling all around this share IMO.
Does anyone have an idea of how much the following will be ballpark?
Once the RCF has been repaid, the Board will review the potential allocation of any remaining proceeds between the repayment of the indebtedness to the vendor in respect of the Company's acquisition of its interest in Arqiva in October 2022 and distribution to shareholders.
Bought 900,000 shares in the 30's - surprised they aren't buying more now? :D
Excellent :D
There is a call on Friday, hopefully it will shed some light on proceedings and calm a few people down.
I can maybe get 100k at a push, can I have 0.1%?
I might get the £100 m on leverage from CMC .... ;)
Reckon I could raise £100m, 50/50 OK? ;)
£3.1bn net assets in Arqiva and we own 48% (but owe £170m in VLN). Entire company valued at £200m. Nah.
Quite … the same scenario was true of Seplat over the Exxon mobile deal that the privatised state company blocked wanting the Exxon assets for themselves they could have bought Seplat out for less than the Exxon mobile price tag.
If only a bank would lend me £200 million ….. ;)
Indeed.
I do wonder if we'll see a bid here to snatch the assets at a snip. Currently, you can get everything for £200m and just block/stop the Verne deal, if you have deep enough pockets/see the value.
It's certainly into crazy valuation area.
Broker recommendations exist to promote trade or facilitate the "market" .... the broker values IMO are rather meaningless but the direction of Broker recommendations meaningful in the sense that they give a picture to background positions of the brokers.
It’s really strong, isn’t it, and I’m booking it in at £50m, despite buying the stake for £400m+
Now valued just above £200m for everything we have (minus Verne). Nuts. Screw broker concerns, it’s too low. I recall brokers crying about Rolls Royce at 70p before it went to 300p.
ARQIVA LIMITED
Company number 02487597
Results on Company House .... Operating Profit nearly doubled 2022/2023 .... all very Bizarre.
Also worth pointing out, I'm absolutely not factoring in any earn-out from Verne, I haven't allowed any enterprise value for red sea cable (Aqua Comms), or the fact that Arqiva is growing/showing sizeable EBITDA.
I've priced everything below book, believing a fire sale situ. You'd be taking the pi££ to value anything lower.
I have been around long enough to know that not all deals are done transparently. It's staggering that they spent £1.4bn and have about £300m in assets. I mean, Jesus. Barely any column inches about it either.
I'm also comforted that a bigger/angrier shareholder has called the shots since before Xmas and am relieved it's being wound down.
Avg is 26.2p - so I'm not going to lose sleep. I can't see how it gets much lower, unless Verne sale derails but no mention of adversity there.
No doubt, this is utterly terrible, but it's about timing for me.
The additional risk here … is the fund winding down, and those still holding from the IPO, litigating management that seems a can of worms going forwards. There are assets here, the investment case has presumably not gone away, so as others note, assets were possibly bought at elevated prices, to be sold perhaps at discounted prices, that seems bizarre.
How would pulling the dividend for a year and replacing the management team, or passing the fund itself to another asset managing team fare in terms of maximising shareholder value.
As it stands, simply stating “maximising shareholder value” going forwards is pretty meaningless given the destruction if shareholder value this past year.
Options need to be laid out clearly, in the update for shareholders to make an informed decision, but I’m not hopeful. That said, my average here is about 27p … so not sitting on huge losses with a possibility of good upsides.
£30m in costs, that's insane, and enough. They must have tax losses coming out of their ears.
I've written off more than a £400m from their valuations too.
Elio - £40m (£55m Liberum worst case book)
Aqua comms - £175m (£227m Liberum worst case book)
Aquiva - £50m (£69m Liberum worst case book)
Cash - £75m (£108m Liberum worst case book)
rest of portfolio £5m
RCF - £35m
Total = £310m (then minus £30m is disposal costs, which is eye wateringly high).
£280m (more than 20% from the price today or 32p) - not going to attract rainbow chasers but that's solid.