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Are you including future liabilities in your calcs, such as unpaid tax on asset disposals? and management bonuses etc?
I think a large amount of revenue comes from Smart Meters these days.
Happy with the value on offer here.
I keep doing the most miserable calculations on assets held and the worst I can get is £300m. Even with £30m in selling fees that's £270m, £50m north from here (near 20%). I'm going to keep loading here.
Does anyone know how the expected switch-off of terrestrial TV and Radio is going to affect Arqiva ?
Presumably all of their TV transmitters and infrastructure will not be needed after the switch-off ?
So will the switch-off not be a huge negative for Arqiva future revenue and profits and business model ?
Is there going to be any need for these TV transmitters and infrastructure in the future ?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/12/07/bbc-must-ready-end-terrestrial-tv-broadcasts-decade-says-tim/
A big dump of around £0.5 million shares around lunchtime. No communication from this company. Maybe bad news coming. Can’t understand why no update about progress of Verne sale. Not even any reassurance that current volcanic activity will not impact Verne activities. Does not inspire confidence in company. Just my opinion.
Par for the course in Iceland.
While terrible for that village, it’s a known area, while Verne’s site isn’t.
The latest eruption seems to be centred on Grindavik, about 12 miles from Keflavik so unlikely to have a material impact on operations - this time.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/14/volcano-erupts-near-reykjavik-forcing-evacuation-of-residents
I'll certainly be relieved, and hopefully the share price will recover a bit, once the sale has completed.
Jesus, that was badly written by me.
PE of 5 to cover VLN.
2025 not 2015, wishful thinking!
Arqiva Is YTD is £91.3m EBITDA or £44m to DGI9 (£88m per year).
With a PE of just 3, it covers the mcap.
Now I get the VLN is £170m but that would require a PE of just 6 and they note it was always going to be renegotiated.
Aqua Comms kicks in when the new line starts in India (2015) - but reckon you could sell that business for £100m today.
I think the share price is seriously discounted at the moment, even using the worst case for every calculation.
Looks like it has some momentum.
Just started buying. Not got much to many bargains about, decided to spread my risk. Unusual for me but it's difficult to choose which bargain to buy?
Going on. Not sure why, yet…
Latest news. Authorities in Iceland have downgraded the threat level from the volcano that erupted earlier this week, as officials said they could no longer observe volcanic activity at the site of the eruption.
Yes, it seems to be more than 20km away and hopefully puts an end to fears it will hit Verne.
My thoughts with the local community, however, it must be very frightening and a worrying time for those in Grindavik.
And so tonight it erupts in Grindavik
https://apple.news/A3_WGsFr4T2mN6GGScgJi5A
Happening today, too, someone is loading £50k clips.
Anyone else notice £5m change hands on Friday? Something going on?
The volcanic eruption risk appears to be diminishing.... magma heads to a vertical intrusion to the south near Grindavik which is away from Verne.
https://www.newsweek.com/iceland-volcano-update-magma-pools-svartsengi-power-station-1852750
Ant1986/marlint112;
Irrespective that you didn't include the debt ant, your point is still valid; whilst marlint correctly highlights the debt that needs factoring in, it doesn't give the whole picture, I feel you was (correctly) alluding too.
If we presume Arqvia (stake) is treading water it's still worth it's £459m purchase price (from what I can see it is comfortably covering it's debt obligations - themselves at ratio levels considerably lower than most transmitter groups - with excess earnings to boot).
So take Arqvia stake, £459m, add £300m for Verne sale, less £375 RCF debt leaves a value of £384m. Yes this disregards DGI9's other investments/commitments, but their still lies a positive disparity of £119m against market cap.
Yes volcano concerns will impact SP, relegation from FTSE250 will impact SP, but you cannot ignore that this is chronically undervalued. Verne was an amazing opportunity beyond DGI9's reach, but Arqvia is the golden goose hidden in plain sight, with it's predominantly inflation linked secure income in a quasi monopolistic market.
Yes patience is required here, a patience I believe will be a goose rather than a turkey, for many Christmases to come.
Https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/knives-to-digital-nine
Please ignore my last post. I had the rebalance month wrong 😳 We're definitely being relegated.
The market cap is based on COB 28 November - i.e. 865.17m * 39.3p = £340m. i.e. still second to bottom. (Below 888, which has also taken a kicking today, on 350m.)
Currently second bottom so certainly not looking good short term if it's still there at the end of December. So long as there is no need to do a raise to keep the lights on until the first tranche of the sale proceeds, this should make no difference to the eventual wind up value. If sentiment doesn't change, it could be event more of a screaming buy for the patient in early January. Of course the volcano story should be old news in a month's time so I'm not sure demotion is a done deal yet.
They you have it, as it leaves FTSE250, funds have to exit at almost any price.
Thanks for the thought legsofman but these articles are only available to subscribers.
No, I've built that in, post sale, at 31.4 it was trading significantly below zero value.
Smash and grab for me, some in SIPP for longer term, but most traded in (31.4p) and now out at 33p.
I think the focus at the moment is the volcanic eruption now identified as likely to be at Grindavik. It's quite some distance from Verne, about 18m as the crow flies. Far enough away to be completely safe, but near enough for a panic sell. Even if the worst should happen, I'm sure it's insured and Verne Global is "almost" sold.
Ant - you have to account for the £375m of RCF debt - so the EV is 270 + 375 = £645m