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due dilligence cant see it hapening in this covid enviroment..for intance imagane a team from newmont going in and a outbreak of covid hits the village ...more likely a major buying alarge amount of shares when land purchases completed
Yes, good point, I had forgotton that.
£2-£3 is very achievable once in production, just on a P/E basis, never mind the exploration upside, so if we were to sell up, the price would have the reflect that potential and our proximity (relatively speaking) to it.
EL, I can't see that negotiations could be underway; not before 23rd Sep anyway as that was the last purchase made by Jim and as a director of the company, would expect him to have privy to that price sensitive information. I would think we are on the radar of a number of the top tier producers. with the number of new large gold discoveries getting fewer, we must become extremely appealing as we approach the magic 5M oz that Mark is trying to prove up. With the chances of even higher gold prices in the not too distant future, it wont be long before Marks phone is ringing like crazy. I still want to see a price in the £2 - £3 minimum.
A toll deal with either mako or calibre would get us to £1 so forget that as a takeover sp.
Secondly the land needs to be secured 100% before the options become available.
Finally ... I believe Rio/ calibre are 100% looking at Cnr, they will
End up spending more on R&D and exploring for gold than what Condor would cost to buy.
Remember they have 15% of total land mass in Nicaragua in the north to work on .... Cnr would be a perfect fit to fund further exploration
Unless an offer comes on the table, I personally think the final financing for the processing plant will be the catalyst compared to land purchasing. I think there will still be people sat on the sideline waiting for that hopefully final fundraise to get us into production. Mark has stated a mine funding decision will be announced early next year. This will be when I'm most interested in.
the final land purchase will be the only thing that takes us to the next level ...all we can do for now is finish studys our hands are tied ... once land purchase complete every one will be knocking on condors door
In addition, I believe I read somewhere that the B2/Calibre deal took 6 months of due diligence and negotiations. A full takeover would also take some time to come to fruition. It's a big decision for both sides, so unless negotiations are already well underway (which is possible), then a buyer jumping in with both feet right now just to shave a couple months off of the land purchases seems unwise. As cambells alludes to, bigger companies tend to prefer to let the small-fry deal with all the risk, then pay a premium for the de-risked asset. It's more expensive, but also less risky for them. If takeover negotiations are underway, then they may well even come with conditions, such as complete the land purchases first, that kind of thing.
Given that CNR are already in advanced negotiations, I think any prospective buyer would wait until 100% of the land was purchased. It's just simpler, and may well in fact be quicker, given all the hassle of switching from one company to another (lawyers, paperwork, etc), which would probably cause delays all of it's own.
£1-£1.20 would not be accepted by MC/JM, so as you say, it would be a hostile approach, which I believe are relatively rare - most acquisitions are made with the BoD's blessing. MC/JM own nearly 20% between them, and if an approach was made, then they would contact investors explaining why they didn't think the offer was fair value. Given all that, it would be an up-hill struggle to get enough shareholder's votes.
I personally think that CNR will go into production. If a takeover does happen, I think it will be friendly (ie. at a price MC/JM would accept and then reccommend to shareholders).
cant see anybody risking a hostile bid before land is aquired by us...4 years it took us to get this far...no body else would risk it ......its not just the money ..
Condor needs just 7-8% of required land to finalise mining and building plant. SO
1. If a major company made a hostile bid and bought Condor, they could immediately offer the remaining land owners significantly more money than Condor can afford buying it quickly.
2. Start mining and trucking to nearby owned mills while building the required mine onsite.
3. Do further exploration confirming more resources.
£1-1.20 as a table offer and this could be snapped up cheaply.
OR.
Am I missing something.?