Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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I think buyers like Calibre will be looking at speed of payback and that is incredibly attractive on this project. 12 months from first pour this could pay off the mine build cost but the mine at this point will be worth £200m+ so a mine builder could then refinance and get out their original investment so theoretically this could cost someone 0 but hold a mine bringing in close to $100m a year. While its a great buy Condor is only strong in negotiation if we have 2 serious buyers. In this case, and we must assume that to still be the case, its logical the delay is down to bids. We will see but even Jim will be looking to close something in March and probably next few weeks. Just cant keep on going like this but for new investors this could be a very likely double bag and downside at current market price below book value offers limited downside. The plan B will be to get some sort of mine underway. Hopefully we are heading to a photo finish very soon.
Hi ddd. I think the obvious starting point is how much total for deal as currently it is an asset sale. Then how many shares will there be and then what are the costs? 65p means £130 m min plus any allied costs so min of £160 m . That’s a big ask I think but hope you are closer than my estimate.
888, yes that is a classic way to manipulate the facts. Ignore the massive crashing of the sp with the big discounted placing in the prior months and go from there. I believe we went from around 28 p to 15 p.
Agree the Goldie market isn’t good for a sale. Should have been selling in 2020/21 .
Now is clearly not the time when big boys are paying big bucks. All your vids tell you that producers go up first and gradually filters down to producers. I exited most producers a while ago and have watched them sink average around 20%since. Will look to buy back in a bit later perhaps when interest rates start falling.
Bad time to sell Shg and Cnr 888. Glad I immediately sold all Shg and put into clsk and mstr.
Interested how you think calibre could buy us and payback in a year. How?? What price are they paying for Cnr ?
You have been main cheerleader for £1 plus . That puts a £200 m plus price on Cnr. You think calibre are trucking that much ore in a year ?? And have that much capacity . They are increasing their reserves and bringing more on line constantly. Not withstanding the commitment to a mine at la India.
Concur it is a bad market to be selling into. If we were miners we could have been looking at first pour this year. 4 years later than many predicted but hey it is what it is. Hopefully most will recoup most of their stakes.
I posted this in December and it’s just as relevant now as all gold equities continue to have a complete disconnect with the Gold Price:
“ I think we had already worked out before they told us that the sales process was taking longer than expected. What we need to remember is how unloved the gold mining sector has been during the sales period despite the rising gold price. I came across a bb on advfn the other day (which I can’t relocate at the moment) which amongst other things produces a performance table for gold and silver companies since the start of 2023. At that time CNR was Up 56% and number 5 on the list. The average performance of al the companies was - 15% (MINUS 15%)
So a very poor market in which to strike a deal even though all the experts are saying now is the time when the big boys will start paying big money for the juniors. It is encouraging that CNR are in advanced discussions with 2 gold miners as that suggests a bidding situation.”
Usually in the last week of March. It's going to be difficult avoiding giving a meaningful update at that time. While a progress update could be given any time it may be that they are going to use the release of the 2023 accounts as the announcement medium.
I'll stick with the top end of my (now year long range) of 65p, but given the slow process I've starting to believe that bidders have been effective in talking the price down. Instead of 60 -65p, I would not now be surprised to see something as low as 50p. Thoughts of £1+ went out of the window when the decision not to forge ahead with production was announced.
Nicaragua could nationalise anything, although if it did have a go at Condor it would effectively shut down almost all inward investment for years. No rational government would want to take that risk. My guess is that they want to continue to prove to the world that the country continues to be investable. Even the Chinese would be spooked by talk of nationalisation. In their shoes I would apply pressure by continually asking for updates on progress.
Polo, £60-100 m is realistic. Would hope nearer 100 than 60 but time will tell
I thought u would like that one 😜
Big Jim wants a certain price. The question is will the market give him that price. I've no idea what his overall average is, but it must be fairly low. His projects have always been highly speculative, he is more a gambler than a Warren Buffett type. If time is running out with the Nic Gov then he will have to fold his hand and take whatever is on the table. All the bidders know that time is on their side, there is only so much Mellon is going to put back into the company; it's a waiting game but I still think we are looking at a sale between 60 maybe 100 million. Anything else at this point in the sales process is highly optimistic. Time is Real, and it is against Condor.
Bob. Your maggot is a bit lonely on the hook.
Broomtree told me this was at 25p imho
Ron yes Cnr permits issued in I think aug 2018 gave Cnr 18 months to start construction. They bent the rules for Cnr by letting Cnr claim clearing some scrub constituted begining of construction even though it is described as almost construction ready. Personally think appropriation is unlikely the gvnt obviously have enough leverage to force a sale and possibly to their preferred buyer which I would for sure expect to be Chinese.
The gvnt have appropriated universities and property of expelled opponents but think a mining company is a step up but not impossible I guess
Surrey, fair to say the peeps that were spouting £1,£1.50,£2 all the way up to £3.94 were not worth paying attention to!
It’s been obvious for years that most predictions Havnt been well researched and were over optimistic in every way. Of course it was not welcome to have a more realistic view. It’s fat lady time now and various mitigating excuses will now ensue no doubt.
What was laughable was the 150k oz for this year that the messiah predicted to possible investors . Yes he knows his stuff simms lol! Yes I would certainly Hope over 30 p but could be a long wait yet for your cash. Not before q3 I wouldn’t be surprised. 3 months for completion for calibre b2 deal so imagine at least the same if not longer. That’s a long time when other assets are flying around us. being nearly 2 years for a sale imv wow and some were hoping for cash before last April.
Agree simms binding offer doesn’t stop a counter offer, I imagine though that if the two parties are both currently in talks that this may be done before disclosure of the best of the two bids but again doesn’t stop the lower one making a last minute increase. Fingers crossed
If done well binding offer does not mean final price because one of the other suitors once faced with a deadline could well table an offer. I just do not understand why they have not adopted that approach. So many companies have an offer but someone else makes a last minute bid. I do not think bidders have luxury to not allow that unless its a knockout bid. Lets hope we are very close or surely since we had “2 advanced parties” in December 2-3 months later you expect a substantial update and not just a continuing conversation. Mellon must know his stuff so we are probably fortunate he is handling this but he is also so rich he could also not mind on the time taken. he can play the long game but equally agree Nic govt will be keen to sort this deal out also so will be doing what it can but also telling Condor to get in with it. Maybe they build the mine afterall or something completely unexpected. I do not believe Hanna blabbed like this to a punter about price sensitive information when they will have all signed ab nda. sorry that story is ridiculous as that person would get fired.
I'd close massively under water after years if being here.
I think it's safe to say we should (will) be clearing 30p.
Thing material has changed since people were touting a quid not so long ago.
I'm not naive enough to believe that's a possibility now, but no way this is going to end in 20s. Would make the BFS laughable
Personally I think it is probably hopeful that it is Mellon that is in the hardball position. This is a buyers market and Cnr need to sell. This is a ridiculously long process and as yet no concrete offer after 15 months. How anyone can try putting good spin on this situation is beyond me.Non binding offers are basically are not worth mentioning. We are told 2 parties are actually serious. Forget all the new companies coming through the door etc.
think too much kudos is attributed to mellon. 888 was lauding Bradda head when it had a bit of a spurt but has since lost 74% of its value not to mention the laughable production forecast.
Sold more last week so down to a modest 18 k which could have been £150k many years ago now Nero.
Put it in Mstr and clsk. Might well reduce lower yet and possibly buy back if it goes much lower.
Obviously,as yet there isn’t an offer progressed far enough to announce yet after 15 months. Shame we don’t have mellons 150 k production🤥
Sounds fun, I'll go more conservative 36-52p.
Condor are between a rock and a hard place. My guess is 25p.But then i am a professional pessimist
Nero 120.
nationalsation "ridiculous" I dont think so.Remember this is Nicaragua not the USA.
Ofcourse i do not have the details of all Condor's permits and licences, but any sensible authority granting such permits and licenses will have placed a time limit on the company for entering into meanful exploitation of the properties.
If Condor were to look likely to breech those conditions the govt would have a big stick to pick up the assets for very little outlay.
Condor can only manage that risk by getting the project underway (debt or dilution) or accelerating the sale of the assets by accepting the best offer they can get.
Why don't we play a more enjoyable game and hazard a guess at where we think we're going to land.
I'm still 47-65p target range SP equivalent after fees.
Sakura I have no earthly idea. I just want to see a binding offer announced publicly at whatever price asap.
Nero I agree completely
Where do you think the highest current offer is? Materially above the share price?
I think they should just green light the current highest (binding) offer and then announce it. Let market do it's thing. If the price is too low for the value of the assets then they will see higher offers come in up to the going market value of the assets (which is far more than £60m).
I think Simms has a point that JM might be holding things up here expecting a much higher price. I can accept that if the current highest offer has gone from 20p to 50p, but not if it's gone from 20p to 25p (for example). This process cannot go on for too much longer surely, if JM is holding things up he will have to accept an offer soon otherwise one would expect the local community and government to be getting very impatient with Condor and that is something they will not risk.
Yeah I think this will force Condor's hand in the end. The company will be sold, it's just a question of price, unfortunately the longer it goes on the more likely the price will be lower. Maybe 60million, who knows.
Ronwoking in fact I asked MC about this exact issue just the other day, it's something management are very aware of and they are taking all necessary steps to manage that risk.
IMO this is exactly what will put a time limit on the sales process. The government won't let Condor delay indefinitely but they won't nationalise the company's assets (that is quite frankly ridiculous), they will simply say "time's up, take the best offer you have" and Condor will do so. Remember, MC has said that they have offers that they could accept right now if they were willing to compromise on their expected price, but who knows what the current highest offer is. We'll just have to wait and see.