Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Still no news, is there skeleton under the bonnet. Concerning. Back to 20p, could it go lower? Imho
Mark could Of learnt a lesson on two from Darren hall on how to get a mine up and running instead of bull hitting hes way forward with pony results
Https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aULu_sLaUEw&pp=ygUOY2FsaWJyZSBtaW5pbmc%3D
Recent video with Darren hall, CEO of calibre. Looks like they are focusing on getting valentine into production on budget and on time.
Totally agree. Calibre will probably not want Chinese on their doorstep luring staff and cosying up to Ortega with their different approach to doing business. It could be very potentially problematic in a few years for Calibre if the West continues to move out of China and looks at how China have cosied up to many small countries around the world and having pretty strong control over them. I suspect for the sake of a relatively small amount of money Calibre would prefer to keep it local.
Simms re Calibre, I wonder how happy they would be to see Condor's assets sold to the Chinese for a relatively cheap price? If only we could get a binding offer agreed and announced then the other players would be forced to show their hands.
To be fair to Jim, gold is now at all time highs in dollars and less than £10 away from an all time high in sterling. I'd say his call on gold was correct, and I imagine he's very much using this news to hammer the point that the NPV of the project is flying higher and higher as the gold price rises whilst inflation falls.
Shame that the equity markets are an utter clown show, but a company's share price/market cap bears zero relationship to it's fundamental value as is more than apparent right now.
Hopefully Jim can close the deal soon and get a good price for us all.
With gold teetering on $2100 again Calibre could afford to pay more and with some tolling at these gold prices pay back its purchase. Given how strong Calibre is an all share offer would cost them barely 10% dilution. If i was Calibre i would strike an all share deal at 50p and start counting the money. Only 5 years ago tables could have been turned and Condor might have done a deal with B2Gold but thats showbiz. Time for Mellon to show his cards and close the deal.
I'm not commenting much at the moment, because I tend not to say much when there's not much to say!
But just in response to the permits/construction ready/building the mine question - Nic is not Australia, or Canada, or the UK - that has worked against us in all the ways we are well aware of, and Seingred (repeatedly) reminds us of. But it can have advantages too. Specifically, it seems clear that the small-print of contracts and permits is really not critically important. For better or worse, personal relationships with the movers and shakers are more relevant. That has already allowed us some lee-way with regards to construction deadlines, and is unlikely to be a blocker for any particular takeover scenario, or purchaser's intentions, provided there is something for Ortega's administration one way or another.
Furthermore, I am unsure if the terms of the permits currently assigned to Condor necessarily pass, without alteration, to a purchaser. It may well be the case that many of those terms are either null-and-void, or at least need to be re-negotiated with the new owner.
More generally, I think one of the few things we can probably all agree on, is that the time is now. Regardless of the price struck, I have other places for the money, as we all must do, up to and including JM. We have been given virtually nothing to go on, and so we are left to twiddle our thumbs and argue amongst ourselves as to whether JM is playing 4D chess, or is simply trying to avoid losing every penny he's put in here. Either way, it's surely time to wind it up and move on.
888, recent past is stretching it. About 5/6 years ago and more when mooted. They have indeed spare capacity but they are bringing more projects on stream and proving up new resources at a pace,high grade too.from memory mc alluded to 30-40 k oz. P a. I don’t believe that there is the ability to not build the mine at la India it is stated in permits.
I have done a bit of volte face and bought some producers back this afternoon . Re bought a few nicely under previous exit.
Back in equinox , b2 and a few other divi payers.
Again, sorry to hear about your loss Surrey. Your username and posts are very similar to tester123, any link?
Well as you all know a significant investor and strong backer of JM's capabilities passed recently waiting for this to come good. Very upsetting for those around them - BUT I understand the shares to be remaining very much in situ, against any other judgements for better or worse - until the fat lady sings.
As they continuously said - the share price just simply holds no value in the discussion. There's an asset, an NPV, and a sale price. Those things need to reach some degree of harmony before its a wrap. And when it does, we'll it'll just move quickly and it's very likely that Condor Gold will be history, and we've all at LEAST managed to recoup.our losses with a couple of quid to spare.
The length of this process is painfully slow, agreed.
But it's binary at this point..so let's just see where we land.
Have good weekends, and appreciate your health and the small things until open on Monday, when we can all resume grumbling!
China economy not exactly firing on all cylinders, the days when they would happily throw billions at projects with minimal due diligence are over. Maybe Big Jim needs to realise this. My preference now is they just take the best offer and move on. Also age is not exactly on Jim or Mark's side, no chance of them going back to plan b and producing themselves, as the Chinese know.
888 You seem only to see good or are being to it’s good take a reality check bud. Marks gone to ground now , Jim’s preparing to fly to the Uk and spread the word 😂leaving the ship bobbing around in a mess. 15 months with no answers it’s really diss taking One would if we was at the end game we would of had regular updates
Mark should be sacked instead of 4K plus a week
Indeed. It would be excellent for their profitability, and terrible for their share price!
With the December financials due at the end of the month we'll get a better handle on current NAV. At 20p I reckon we are probably trading at somewhere between 15% and 20% discount to NAV. NAV of course is historical cost based and we are 15 years into this project, with all the associated price inflation aspects. It's highly doubtful CNR could get this far for what we currently have on the balance sheet. In a nutshell we have two pretty meaningless indicators of what the outcome might be; Dec '23 NAV and the market price, the latter of course showing dramatic moves on the whim of tiny volumes.
So, we have a Nicaraguan stand-off. Mellon has dug his heels in, and the Chinese want to get away with a steal. I've tried to rationalise the outcome via average price of assets in, and on, the ground, but the reality is that we are in an auction situation. The Chinese are playing for time, probably thinking that Mellon will eventually buckle. If both bidders are in fact Chinese it's pretty reasonable to assume the dead hand of the state directing bid strategy for both. Pin a bid at a low threshold, and show some faux competition from the other bidder adding a few more points. Maybe; maybe not. It's impossible for me to say. Are we in the midst of a Game Theory situation? Again, there are no facts to work with, so it's impossible to speculate. Is there effectively just one bidder, the Chinese state? In other words, to paraphrase a political nutter, are they both two cheeks of the same ar.e?
I haven't been as wrong in my optimism for about 15 years. In February 2023 I thought there was an outside chance of a deal by the end of March 2023. Never in my wildest pessimism would I have thought that a deal announcement by the end of March 2024 would look like optimism. I can't actually recall any sales process I've watched, or been involved in, taking this long. Even £10bn M&A has been done and dusted within a year.
Now, after 15 years, if I'm thinking that it's no surprise that people with a shorter investment timeline are bailing. It doesn't mean the assets are worth any less, nor will it likely affect the ultimate outcome. But it certainly explains the boredom/frustration of pretty much everyone. Perhaps JM is just a world class negotiator, but for me I really think it's time to close. I long ago accepted that 100p+ was a developer based pipedream, but really, anything less than 50 -60p really would signify failure. A failure to even achieve the sort of average prices achieved by dozens of juniors over a multi-year period. But then again shi. happens.
If you recall in the recent past CNR were trying to set up a toll mining deal with Calibre using Calibres underutilised mill( it remains underutilised). The attraction of this was that could commence almost immediately and would have provided cash for CNR while they conducted the sales process or started construction of the mine. It would therefore appear to be the case that Calibre could start making money from Condors Gold from the day they completed the purchase.
Bald mark , agree . The permits also are to build a mine. They already have two that cost less than the cost of building la India . Also la India is too far away from production to fit their model imv. Marathons main project is under construction with first pour early next year with 195k oz for 14 years ina great jurisdiction. $250m. Cannot see how calibre comes to Cnr with a $100 or $150 m mine build to finance and carry out. They buy near term or producing projects that add instant or near term cash. And as you say want to lesson jurisdiction risk
Calibre keeps coming up as a possible buyer.
Certainly they are in the best position to generate cash from the mine, however this would leave them more rather than less Nicaragua focused.
Their whole rational for buying Marathon at a premium was to reduce their Nicaragua risk and so rerate as a global producer. Their buying Condor, while improving profitability, would go against this and negatively impact their share price.
I think we're stuck with the Chinese :(
Looking forward to the master show Saturday next there be no presents of mark but a chance to ask questions to god himself 😂
Jim won’t sell cheap so roll on plan b
Was there any news on the plant we bought as non miners, is it 100% completely there
Simms, payback would be from commercial production not first pour. Ramp up period is generally 6 months. And that still leaves the cost of the project to be recouped. £200 m plus if some are to be believed.
Agreed quick payback is important for sale. However $105m needs spending ,18 months construction, 6 months ramp up so 3 years minimum for payback. Then another couple of years to pay off project. The value of the mine in 3 years time is hard to guess. Currently tho Shg is being sold for £150 m.
We should see a deal eventually because the economics are good but geopolitics and a poor selling market hinder a good sale price imo.
888, did newmont lose 50% of its value between oct 2022 and dec 2022??? 28p -14p. No it went up around 25%.That is fact too . Obviously you can manipulate by what point you measure from! So your measure from the heavily discounted placing is deliberately misleading.
I will give you another comparison. I switched some shares from condor around 35 p after a placing into calibre at $1.25. Cnr are currently hovering close to 20 p. Calibre $1.55.
Agreed this is a very hard market . The idea that Cnr is going to kick off the bull year with a good price is very hopeful. What in your opinion is a good price ?
Still curious how calibre could payback in a year?
Still no offer, and sp drifting, sell out weighing buys. Does someone know something? Price action is very interesting imho
25p where is it again? Imho
Seingred
Those are facts not manipulated facts. Just to make the point in another way let’s look at Newmont the world’s largest Gold miner which I purchased a small holding of for my wife’s SIPP 4 months ago. It’s currently down 20%. Look at the comparable performance of CNR and Newmont (NEW) over 6 and 12 months
Last 6 months CNR -8.7%. NEW -20%
Last 12 months CNR +30% NEW -28%
It has been a terrible market for Gold equities of all sizes over the last 2 years and very few deals have been done particularly in the Junior space. This is widely tipped by the likes of Ross Beatty as the year that will change. Let’s see if Jim can start that ball rolling with the sale of CNR at a good price which reflects the rising gold price.
I think buyers like Calibre will be looking at speed of payback and that is incredibly attractive on this project. 12 months from first pour this could pay off the mine build cost but the mine at this point will be worth £200m+ so a mine builder could then refinance and get out their original investment so theoretically this could cost someone 0 but hold a mine bringing in close to $100m a year. While its a great buy Condor is only strong in negotiation if we have 2 serious buyers. In this case, and we must assume that to still be the case, its logical the delay is down to bids. We will see but even Jim will be looking to close something in March and probably next few weeks. Just cant keep on going like this but for new investors this could be a very likely double bag and downside at current market price below book value offers limited downside. The plan B will be to get some sort of mine underway. Hopefully we are heading to a photo finish very soon.