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Alas Barnard it’s a sorry state of affairs when we are left with just hope to salvage our investment!
Can't be far off now..just wondering if the sudden interest here is a sign from the gods..we can hope!
Gavlaa £0.65p would feel like 'manna from heaven'. Cegamer, I feel and share your pain and frustration as my average is near on £0.50p! Let's hope and pray that JM & MC can pull the one of the rabbits that have been mentioned on this BB many times over the last decade. GLA.
Myself and Joey75 bought the other day and they showed as Sells. LSE trades shouldnt be taken as gospel.
Looks like a flurry of buys coming through this afternoon..
i still think it is inconceivable JM and MC would go down this route if they already did not have some interest and the formal route would mean these potential buyers are told to put up or shut up. Companies like Calibre looks to have been playing games for years playing Condor along and then doing nothing hoping they would run out of steam. I hope the period is 2 months and if nothing comes close to the $100-$200m mark they crack on. Gold is flying high and mining investment is very strong on the back of gold ascendancy. The sanction concerns were appallingly timed but that appeared to be very very focused to a right hand man of Artega and to support some voters in the US. We know payback is 12 months or less so even a high net individual can loan at says 15% and within 12 months of production can pay back. I think the high speed of repayment is crucial as banks might not want to tie up money in Nic for long. MC did not spend 12 years of his life for a relatively low yearly salary to walk away with nothing. The mine has value and even JM is not going to just give it away, however much he might be throwing his toys out the pram he is not stupid. he is probably the idael person along with a few mates to throw in $100m for 15% interest as he has most to gain. Having your own gold mine in the future might be very beneficial to maintain his wealth.
Gavlaa, yes could be. I was musing the other day that the sudden shift in strategy must have been triggered by something that was a fairly powerful incentive (for JM at least). I'm sure we hope that it was a real indication that the assets could be sold quickly for an acceptable price.
In relation to your other point, I think that a sale of the assets *may* flip into a takeover of the company's shares. But we'll see I guess.
I think the problem is that there has been a stack of misinformation elading us up to this point.
Last year we - quote - had people on site running final due dilligence. This has amounted to nothing (possible scuppered by sanctions).
We spend several million on a mill that's gathering dust
The land ownership "issue"
Artisinal miners on "our land" continuing to extract whilst we can't get our house in order
The board valuations
The open offer price (WHAT!?)
Jim and Mark made the fatal mistake of assuming confidence would prevail and we'd just brute-force our way to a higher share price based on nearing the gateway to production.
They've neglected, massively and STUPIDLY, IMO, to sate the realistic appretite of potential whale investors - and that ignorance is now rearing it's head.
There's no doubt that JM booted Mark through frustration, but he's also got to lok a bit closer to home to find the reasoning behind our position...this should have been a wrap 6 years ago, boyos!
Anyway. I'm bagholding at over 45p and frankly would be overjoyed if I could just get my cash out - have been locked in here for years and have seen my watchlist way out perform even my wilder expectations, which is just the worst.
At least we know it's now or never. I'm just hoping Jimbo pulls a big fat rabbit out of his hat and we can all walk away with a lesson rather than a loss.
Very frustrating indeed - and probably the reason for the snipes. At this point, as far as I'm concerned, it's warranted. This is our money these guys are failing with.
Just thinking aloud. Here's my take: Jim knows gold is going to rise in the wake of high inflation and dollar about to steeply decline this year BUT he thinks it will be a temporary spike and come down again. Mark wants to go to production because it will be more money in the long term but it will be a while (commissioning/building plant and more importantly testing, honing the process which is never smooth). Jim is smarting because of his net worth declining along with the world economy. Jim is in a rush to get this done now while gold spikes.
That's just my take. Valuation i reckon around 65p. Wonder if they are selling the assets rather than the company, not just because of the low share price, but because of some clause with Nic government over production/permit?
In all the years ive been in CNR, ive never known this board to be so snipey and nasty/personal to the directors apart from when that see you next tues bloke Tom whatshisface was here. makes you think.
There was a bus stop and bench put outside onions office in Nicaragua to assist with the mountain of potential bidders
The man cred is lower then a rattlesnake belly
Am sorry to say that I stand by my post a week ago where I suggested that if there had been strong interest in the sale process Condor shares would be rising. My view is that interest is poor, the longer there is no update the more I believe this is the actuality.
Child & Co have really, and I mean really, messed this up big time, Mellon's greed (demanding warrants and conversion at a miserable 15p on a measly $1m loan) simply goes to show he does not believe offers will be anything like the value he was promoting at Master Investor a few years ago, he implied value circa 75p-£1 a share.
No wonder Child is keeping a low profile, he has mislead the shareholder base for ever and an age, flip flopping from one scenario to another, now simply playing for time, extracting the last bean of shareholder cash in salary and expenses.
It's a darn poor show all around.
A great answering time buying b s answer. There’s no one going to buy this mess onion had created How the hell the man was in finance is beyond me but on the flip side he’s doing a cracking job extracting every penny out of the long termers
Sent MC a message today asking if there was any non-market sensitive news he could share, he responded within a couple of hours. I won't post his reply without his permission but sufficive to say we'll have to wait until they're ready to update the market in due course.
Cf, I think also forcast aisc are different to actual aisc, particularly in a time of high inflation. Mako have established a successful mine with actual aisc. I am sure pure minerals figures were good before construction. Well run mines run into production issues etc which both equinox and shg have, there is absolutely no reason to suspect that if cnr went to production it would somehow be perfect and no issues which is the general assumption here. Experienced aquiring mining companies do not think like locked in holders and will price in downside rather than upside imv.
C f, on makos website they claim to have built 3 mines in mexico. Both mako and equinox have been created in less than the timescale cnr have spent on the purchase of land to put things in perspective. Now we hear about the importance of grades , worth checking out makos, shg ,equinox and calibre drilling releases recently. Mako and equinox are very different companies and differ to cnr. If we compare mako business model, they have moved into production quickly and carried out drilling from income. Cnr shouldve followed a similar path imv if they were serious about production. This would have limited dilution.
Equinox is a 500 k oz pa producer whose business model is to build a large scale company through aquiring existing companies and furthering reserves and improving what exists. Of course they have debt but are soon to be a 1 m oz producer. Equinox is funded to 1 m oz and currently valued at £ 1 b . They will be producing 1 m oz. before la India produces 100 k oz .
Would I want to be in a 1 m oz producer at £1 b or la India for £200 m and another $100 m to spend. Well I am in equinox at under $ 3 and see no validity in the comparison but hey , time will tell. I have bought back around 17 p here and think there is good risk reward but I will keep to my valuation of little more than £100 m but with the posibility that there may be a different deal other than a full buyout. There is a chance that no acceptable cash bid actually appears. Best to have a wary aproach and perhaps be pleasantly surprised than the opposite imv .
Good luck
The comparison to Mako looks very plausible. If one takes the 2.5 multiplier on the £77 million market cap that gives a CNR valuation of £192.5 million. That valuation sits close to the top of the £100 million to £200 million range mentioned by Mark Child at the start of the asset sale process.
Mako have a mcap of £77m. They only produced 36,000oz last year with average AISC around $1200usd. They started producing without an FS and minimal reserves. They have a bit of debt left to pay. Simple calculations would say we could be valued at least twice of mako, technically 2.5 times. Our AISC will be lower and we have a much bigger reserve and resource. Mako are a reasonable comparison for once in production as they are single jurisdiction and in nic. They managed to go into production with no prior experience. I don't think debt is that much of an issue in valuing companies. Look at equinox mcap and their debt.
Let's hope so Simms. I believe Onion Head has said there will be updates throughout Q1 so hopefully something soonish - unless it is more of his BS.
Its very hard to find comparables but gold assets are trading poorly in line with wider stock market and a producing gold mine will be based more on its profit and gold production and SHG made a loss last year and saw production halve. I am sure future looks promising but every company is unique and the only advantage to Condor to look around at asset sale today is its a relatively clean purchase for a buyer with cash wasting away not earning any return. There is a lot of cash sitting around looking for productive resources and Condor does tick a lot of boxes but lets see if we get any update next week as we are nearly 2 months in and you might expect shareholders to receive some update once first deadlines are completed. Was it 31st Jan or will it be a later date. Will a white knight partner come in and take over the driving of Condor forward. Who knows but when you signal your looking to sell plenty will come to explore options and one might allow PIs to benefit from the upside.
I would like to see a timeline that sees a deal done in this tax year. My belief is that there will be profit in it, not as much as getting a mine up a running, but there will be some. And I would like to see any CT paid at 19% and not 25%. Perhaps there will even be time to pay a dividend this tax year if the process moves fast enough (not every Condor share I have is in an ISA). My sense is that if it's not done by March 31st this thing could stretch out into the summer without a timeline. Like everyone else, now the die is cast on the 'not building a mine' scenario I would like my money out and in to something else.
$100 to $200m might be the ball, but I think there will be a lot of questions if the deals doesn't reach $150m.
Meanwhile, although the current SP is pretty irrelevant at the moment, people are still selling. Then again perhaps a couple of pence is worth having if you can't wait.
DDD agreed.
Any party wanting to buy Condor in the open market would find acquiring even a single digit % likely to push the SP up way beyond 50p. It's just too illiquid. The cat would soon be out of the bag.
All being well this time next week we'll have a progress update. Assuming the bid process had been well defined before last year's beauty parade announcement, a couple of months to get the initial round done and dusted seems reasonable. If something is not out by the 3rd I reckon a few question to the company are in order.
Current MCap != takeover price. You couldn't *buy* SHG for $150m, could you?
Personally i think many including me will be sorely disappointed with the outcome here.
SHG produced 65K oz @ $1200 AISC in 2022, they are on track to produce closer to $100K in 2023 and have a high grade discovery thats coming in at 10g/tonne and yet they are valued at $150million today.
Mark can sing and dance all he wants about $100 to $200 million but i just cannot see it. He bought a mill, talked of a toll mill and then throws in the towel (whether by choice or not). As shareholders we are not privy to the day to day running of the company and therefore we rely heavily on RNS's and interviews that the top dog does to understand the companies vision and progress. Looking back at it now, it was always jam tomorrow and there's still no jam. The guy has stringed us all along whether it was intentional or not. He talked of innovative ways to finance a mine but you just can't take his word. Its coming from a guy who said a FS is not needed years ago.
The only reason i haven't sold out is I feel a buyout will be more than the recent offer price (which i took up in order to avg down). An all asset sale would be a disaster i feel, i'd rather take paper in another producer that could actually benefit from extracting gold from la india.
Even a route to production is looking very slim now as any cash raise would be very dilutive. Best of luck to all holders, sooner this story ends the better and we can move on.
Mc,s wrote a book A guide to duck up big discovery in 5 east steps