The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Goneawol - thanks for that a lot of positives in there; I agree MC looked rather weary and like many of us, will be glad to get this over the line… regarding earlier discussion I don’t think he’s got another 12 year project in him lol
If someone buys the whole company then they will need to pay extra for the 80,000 Oz of gold and 500,000 oz of silver we have to JORC at Rio Luna.
Agree straight sale is by far the best outcome. Personally I think the talk of asset sale may well have kept the sp back. Any new investors want to know exactly what they get. 4 offers is good news . Should be a good week. Lol Frenchie my first was 0 .95 p .
Yes wonder who the Canadians are? F m, well why not buy in any of the discounted raises then? I fancy equinox , not just because I hold but Beaty knows this project well. Lots of Canadian producers so could be one of many I guess.
Might hang in a bit longer Nero if it’s a straight sale ;). Paper in the right producer would be ok the way things are heading currently. It is still about 235 m shares on a fully diluted basis .
Getting interesting. Gla.
Yeo 40p here we come. Great stuff.
KP, thanks for those snippets, as mentioned earlier, a full blown sale is mine, and i guess the majority of LTH here. Having been here since May 2009 (1st purchase 20k of shares at 1.2p pre consolidation) I’m ready to make my exit.
Barnstormer of an interview. 4 biggies fighting it out for Condor with offers, more site visits coming up, Zurich video out later and talk of possible share buy out sounds like a lot going on. If 2 bidders are on Tsx one could be FM and they might be a likely bidder for the company. Can see Condor pushing onwards to 40p as reminder that NPV is $400m at $1600 gold. Crazy if we can see bids between $100m - $200m offer but even as MC says a buyer could come next week or 4-8 weeks. Something tells me the mention of week could be an early bonus.
At the end he said the presentation he gave yesterday in Switzerland should be available at 6pm or possibly in the morning. They will put it on the Condor website.
Mark said 4 to 8 weeks for an announcement of a firm offer but it could happen much sooner than that as a lot of due diligence is underway.
Indeed. When asked about timeline he said 4-8 weeks for next stage but also that news could come as early as next week. Looking good. He majored on what good value it was and how if the asset was in Canada it would be worth 5x current MCap. I think he’s gunning for 2-3 x current MCap.
My impression is that he’s a bit weary, knows it’s going to be sold and so this presentation was slightly pointless.
If we end up with six bids we really are off to the races
He’s waiting to hear imminently on two more site visits…
Of real note is that buried in his chat was the prospect of the whole company being bought out rather than just the assets. He bought this up, unprompted and made a real point of it.
Yep, looks like the Chinese producer that was on site for eight days have put in an opening bid. Excellent news.
Ok he’s loosening up now…
2 x offers are from Chinese companies
2 x offers are from TSX Listed companies
All four are gold producers….
Four is great news. Let the bidding war commence....................
Well it’s classic subdued Mark (not helped by Zoom problems at the start!)
However he did just tell us that there are now 4 offers that have been tabled!
Hi All
Please let me know how Marks presentation goes.
My view is whilst he can’t give certain details if he continues his confident outlook all is going to plan. If he shows reservations or is more conservative we could have issues!
If negative the SP will react tonight/tomorrow, if confident 40p is the next target ??
Nero, yes it was said in jest. However, I always try and assess as we go along. When I was in Omi I kept lifting the limit sell order as the sp was looking very racey lifted it from 10 p a number of times to 35 p and sold . I originally was happy with 1-200% .Obviously at 40 odd p peak they weren’t real value and soon went sub 20 p and now sub 10 p. That can happen in the open market. I will see how we go. I rarely sell all in one go or buy. I am interested to see how far we get before news . I am imagining mid 30 s maybe 40 p . will be looking to lose some in that scenario and pretty much derisk. Then see what happens on news and let some go at that point . Will perhaps keep a few just in case. I may be wrong as could anybody else but am less likely to be disappointed than many. Buying and selling is not an easy process and easy to get wrong. Thankfully I am up nicely through sensible management of my holding and do not need to risk being stiffed by mellons new company. I don’t share the admiration of him. Yes 40 p is a decent de risk price imv for 17 p shares, however may change that if the sp movement dictates, ie if we were to head over 40 p before news. I think that’s unlikely but not impossible. The market can get overexhuberrant at times and could give an over optimistic value for Cnr before all the implications become apparent. It’s all to play for. Always best to be adaptable imv .
I posted a link to an asset sale by royal rd in nica for around $29 m and from memory around $5 m was withheld for nica authorities. Nobody showed any interest in this which surprises me. Would equate to $20 m on a $120 m deal if replicated . What if the deal all folds at last minute, unlikely but not impossible as rns state. Best de risked imv as the sp would crash in that scenario. Obvs if your average is above 40 p that is a harder call to make.
Obviously I could be wrong or as richard cranium keeps declaring, a serial de ramper.
I am happy with 40-50 p just like I stated a few years ago that 70 p would be ok for my 40 p shares and took flak as a de ramper.
Good luck with your strategy whatever that is .
Gold and CNR on the rise again
Simms, you have to be careful between switching between us dollars and sterling. For example, you state you think the sale price will be between $100m - $150m which equates to £80.26m - £120.39m. With around 181m shares in circulation at this time that works out at between 44.4p and 66.5p per share. So not really 2-3 times todays price. I am hoping for an outright bid for the company, and hope to see north of $200m, especially if there are a number of interested parties. GLA.
Yeah, me too but it does illustrate that Condor still has value after the sale of La India which is good because we will still hold the shares if we get paid a special dividend distributing the proceeds of the sale.
Still there, MMs trying to execute the trades at or under 30p it looks like.
Punter - I’m hoping MC doesn’t have another 12 year project in him (I certainly don’t lol)
Simms we have Rio Luna which is a decent project. 'The Concession, covering an area of 43km² in the Central Highlands of Nicaragua was granted to Condor in June 2010 and will expire in 2035. Previous explorer First Point Minerals completed an extensive programme of soil, auger, rockchip and trench sampling on the Rio Luna Project area to define 18km of epithermal quartz veining in three distinct northwest-southeast trending gold vein sets. This surface sampling defined seven principal prospects, five of which were drill-tested over several phases of drilling between 2004 and 2006, with a total of fifty-eight diamond drillholes completed for a total of 6,250m drilled. In November 2011 Condor announced that independent geologists SRK Consulting (UK) Ltd had estimated a JORC compliant Inferred Mineral Resource of 65 kt at 3.5 g/t gold for 80,000 oz gold and 28 kt at 56 g/t silver for 500,000 oz silver on the Concession using this drilling and trenching data.'
To post that message on Twitter you would only do that if they had got the right non binding offers in the first place and probably chairman had talks that was as close to a handshake subject to legals. i think $100-$150m will be the price but that is 2-3x todays price so plenty of room for new investors to do well. As to timing the bidder is the one who wants to strike quickly and then turn the tables on Condor to agree deal within a time period and not give other bidders a chance to get in. I think a binding offer is more likely low weeks as if you were a bidder and wanted the asset you would go in hard and quick. I think 50-80p is more likely outcome for shareholders. As to distribution i cannot see that JM and MC will not look to distribute the bulk of it quickly in a special dividend, they might even buy back shares if the share price does not equal the asset sale value. i have been in several companies in the past where this happened as it is a no brainer that if asset sale is worth 70p per share and share price is 50p the company buys up the shares and ultimately increases the distribution to remaining holders. therefore the share price will be quite closely aligned with the asset sale. MC has discussed distributing money so that does seem most likely. There could well be assets remaining in Condor so that is worth watching and the shell of Condor will have a nice value for someone.