The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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He still has that very same Magic Hat……. it’s just being dusted off for one last trick ;-))
Somebody used to post about MC having one, maybe he's got one extra large surprise left to pull out.
And I don't mean a bunny for Easter
Stage 1 then a stage2 https://www.commodity-tv.com/play/condor-gold-construction-ready-gold-project-in-nicaragua-for-sale/
The current process is to get bids for the assets. There is nothing to prevent someone making an offer to buy the company at anytime. They are showcasing the value of the assets because there is a massive disconnect between the share price and the actual value of the assets. I believe Jim and Mark’s preference would be to sell the company.
I wonder when times up on round one of the bidding process
frenchie38, let’s wait and see - though it’s looking more positive on this board today.
I'll admit that £1.50 seems like a stretch, but when considering the bull case, bear in mind...
a.) Calibre is an undervalued company in a (still, despite the gold price) undervalued sector. Using them as a benchmark for any read-across valuation implies a corresponding undervaluation.
b.) MCap is not the same as takeover price. Calibre wouldn't sell for their current MCap now would they?
c.) A couple of years to wait before production is may be a concern for PIs, but for companies, and Chinese ones in particular, it's nothing. We know from first-hand experience how long it can take to get to this stage of a mine. It may even be considered an advantage - they can have their own people on the ground from day 1, and design the plant to their own requirements.
d.) There simply aren't many assets like this available anywhere, for any price.
e.) The Chinese may consider this a strategic asset that they're willing to pay a premium for, just to grab it for themselves and keep it out of the hands of the West. (Chinese companies and the Chinese state are tied much closer together than in the West). Could the oft-mentioned geopolitical situation could even work to our advantage in this regard?
Volume improving having exceeded the previous 2 trading days combined volume. Volume currently 150000 from 10 trades.
Todays RNS simply restates the sales pitch and leaves one in no doubt CNR is worth multiples of it current Market Cap of £40 million.
The guy from the Swiss Gold Newsletter who said Condor was very undervalued said it would be sold quickly because the major shareholder wanted it sold quickly. Will it be sold before the AGM on 11th May?
Crash helmets back in the cupboard folks it another false alarm
Ddd , I would be extra tic if my 17 p shares went for £1.50 , giving a m cap of calibre who produce 250 oz gold and cash in the bank, but for some reason it sounds too good to be true to me .
Jim Mellons take on the situation seems to imply a sale of >50% (but not 100%) of the shares might be the result of the exercise.
"It is now the time for a larger company to take on the reins of our key assets and our CEO, Mark Child, has been working hard to find the right partner."
Very confident from JM witj expectarions of more bidders incoming.
“further offers are expected as 9 companies are under a Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA)“
Steady rise coming.
Mr Bond, it’s not exactly flying and I doubt you have missed the chance to top up. Bid has gone up only 0.5p!
SP starting to rise after todays release of RNS. I really wanted to top up but did not get the chance!
Morning All
the following taken from the results look more bullish
On 13 March 2023 - the sales process is now entering the end of its first phase with various parties having conducted site visits and others ongoing. Three formal expressions of interest including 2 non-binding offers (subject to further due diligence) have been received by the Company and further offers are expected as 9 companies are under a Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA). '
Keep the faith
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4589497-first-majestic-silver-jerritt-canyon-mining-suspended
"Taking into account the acquisition price of $470M, accumulated mine operating losses of $130, and capital spending of $270M the total cost to First Majestic Silver so far amounts to $870M"
Good god, and people moan about MC!! How the hell is Keith Neumeyer still in a job?! Actually I know why, it's because FM is a meme stock thanks to KN's public profile and "silver to the moon" interviews. Hence why the stock has bounced 20% from the low set last Tuesday.
Some interesting info regarding Jerritt Canyon in that analysis though:
"Jerritt Canyon is not a simple operation in terms of mining as well as processing. The remaining resources require rather costly underground mining techniques, a large portion of the resources are located below the water table and dewatering is an issue. However, perhaps most importantly, the sulfide ore at Jerritt Canyon is complex and requires a roaster to process. This operation includes one of only three operating roasters in Nevada, the other two are owned by i-80 Gold (IAUX) and Nevada Gold Mines, the JV between Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Newmont (NEM)."
All goes to highlight how valuable Condor's assets are, given 91%+ recovery rates using the standard Carbon-in-Pulp cyanidation process. No roaster needed here! I reiterate that FM should have bought Condor back in March 2021 for $100M - they could have built the mine before inflation drove costs up and been producing 100koz easily by now.
DDD remember the upside case doesn't include the value of the entire land package/exploration upside. But I'd be *very* happy with £1.50 a share!! That would certainly more than compensate me for my time invested here! But there's many a slip bewixt cup and lip, let's not count our chickens just yet...
I'm guessing the "between $100m and $200m' was inspired by the FS:
IRR of 23% and a post tax, post upfront capital cost NPV of US$86.9 million using a discount
rate of 5% and price of US$1,600 oz gold (Mineral Reserve Case).
IRR of 43% and a post tax, post upfront capital cost NPV of US$205.2 million using a discount rate of5% and price of US$2,000 oz gold
If you go back to the 'LA INDIA PROJECT SEPTEMBER 2021 PEA EXPANSION SCENARIO
to 150,000 oz gold p.a.' (deck headline) the numbers change to:
IRR of 54% and a post-tax NPV of US$418 million, after deducting upfront capex, at a discount rate of 5% and gold price of US$1,700/oz.
So, one way or another, the buyers will enter negotiation with a 'safe $100m opening gambit, and CNR will have said f... off, we are thinking $400m. Neither side will get their wish list answer but it will likely end up perhaps around the $250m - $300m zone. If there is real competition for the asset it could go a bit higher, especially if there is confidence in $1900 gold sustaining.
Just my latest thinking on the situation, albeit I'm guessing just like everyone else.
Maybe a buyer lurking at these levels. Could get update ang day now.
Ps you take confidence you can’t buy more than 25k shares on open market but I can sell 100k ??
Good luck too 007
ISAPENSION
Fair comment and good luck to you! I’ve lost too much here and hoping to average down my holdings soon!
007 guess that’s life, certainly never invest/gamble money you aren’t prepared to lose.
Personally I feel confident and I see a lot more upside than the downside risk.
I can’t believe the so called bidders would waste time, money and effort with site visits and ongoing questions if they weren’t seriously interested!
Let’s see how good a negotiator Jim is, however worst case 15p and best case £1 for me….keep the faith!
ISAPENSION
My worry is that say for example the Chinese are no longer interested, they would be the ones to make the biggest offer. The SP would tank down if they don’t go ahead. It’s nice to think everything is positive here but so far it hasn’t proven so.
Everyone is waiting Jonny, news could/should be anytime now and most of us (like me) are happy with our position (whether it goes up or down 2p short term).
We know this share fly's on news so in my opinion not worth the risk day trading. Historically we always knew there was more news/risk round the corner to trade, however one day anytime soon we will wake up to an RNS stating Game over!!
Anyone trying to trade at 15p got burned!