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Started: mick-b, 18 Jun 2024 15:12
Last post: MarkBellUK, Today 09:15
Missed this in yesterday's Times:
Shareholders have rewarded CMC Markets as it continues its expansion away from its traditional business of spread-betting and contracts-for-difference trading.
The FTSE 250 trading platform business founded by Lord Cruddas, the Conservative peer, which has diversified into areas such as traditional stockbroking in recent years, on Tuesday announced a deal with the challenger bank Revolut.
As part of the deal, Revolut will offer some of CMC’s trading services through its app, with the under-the-bonnet infrastructure supplied by Cruddas’s company.
CMC’s share price rose by 15p, or 5.9 per cent, to 269p, with Cruddas saying that he expected Revolut would launch the new products “imminently”. CMC’s full-year results are due on Thursday.
I think the market likes the Revolut deal, could pan out to be very significant....
Something afoot here - beyond the update imv. We shall see.
Thanks a lot for the link, LD1973. Onwards and upwards.
Nice rise today, despite Canaccord's ridiculous rating. Guess it's them that want to pick up some cheap shares?
I set a 287p GTC sell order at 9.30am Saturday morning before heading out .
Executed this morning at 8.50am.
Interesting to see e how this works out , not a fan of GTC orders , but would free a lot of my time placing orders daily .
Price shown this site 281.5p with the days high 283.5p spread 0.5% ,
My broker has a high of 288p
Up to 280p now 22 month high , what a buy this would of been only six months ago at 89p.
My last top up in August 2022 now ahead .
Not been this high since July 2022 .
Time fly's 17 months since look here . up 25% at 138 p.
Since my top up at 239p the low was 17/11/23 at 89p.
This was 225p this time last year , the high after 251p mid February 2023.
News ...... might be good news for market in general .
CMC Markets PLC, 12-month range 87.6p-254p. The online trading platform company says it saw a strong performance in the third quarter of its financial year. "This was driven by an improvement in market conditions led by an increased contribution from the B2B and institutional business with the group benefiting from the long-term investments in this area," CMC Markets explains. It now expects annual net operating income between GBP290 to GBP310 million compared to its previous guidance range of GBP250 to GBP280 million. This will be up from GBP288.4 million in financial 2023. The financial year for CMC ends on March 31.
Dividend payment in acc now n a starting to bounce upwards now ....great share to ride .........unlike yesterdays selection of mine.....Gla
We’ll received results from TP ICAP today may have a positive effect here.
Started: LD1973, 14 Jun 2024 17:01
Last post: LD1973, 18 Jun 2024 11:54
I guess this is why they were after our shares!
This share was totally manipulated today - think someone is after some shares. Hold for gold!
Last post: MarkBellUK, 11 Jun 2024 08:35
Good news thanks Cris
PS Updates the 20/6
paul scott, graham neary, both stockopedia and ****ney rebel in conversation on vox with paul hill are all very positive on this share. the recent fall back could provide a buying opportunity. update from the company soon around 21 june.
Started: Treven, 31 May 2024 17:12
Last post: Treven, 6 Jun 2024 14:01
Kindly thanks for your input MarkBell, much appreciated.
Treven the UT @ 1635 is the market close price. Everyday between 1630-1635 you get the post market auction. The result of this is the UT (uncrossing Trade) which forms the close price. Also pre market 0750-800 UT forms the daily open price.
To try and put it simply any BUY & SELL orders left on the order book , or added in during the auction period are matched and the average price, based on volume is calculated = closing price. The UT volume is all the orders combined from both the BUY and SELL side so although it appears as one transaction; it will be many orders rolled into on transaction
Thanks for your replies guys. There was selling pressure today in the afternoon. I believe in the fundamentals. The dust will settle down. Onwards and upwards.
Yes, I had a good look at the swift price change last Friday. No doubt games are being played, so it is time to hold on and refresh oneself with the basics of the company. Today's close no better. Courage, mes ami.
Treven, sorry, no idea, but there seems to be a lot of manipulative price activity going on for no obvious reason except to make money for MM's dishonestly, today's trading range alone from 274.50p to 292.50p....
Last post: Chrisbish, 31 May 2024 09:19
There is momentum in this share and 300p is likely to be the next target. Whether it holds that level will be interesting. If it does then I can see an increase in buying activitivity.
Started: andsoforth, 22 May 2024 20:28
Last post: andsoforth, 23 May 2024 17:57
Hi Neil. CMCX and HL are in the same spreadbet/brokerage business. The offer for HL suggests the sector as a whole is undervalued, and also that further bids for similar firms may take place. AJB up too, but they also had good results today.
New yearly high today.
Super momentum
CMCX likes volatility
****ney rebel tweeted the same thing, does anyone why hl bid will push up cmxc share price.
...may push the price here up in the morning.
Started: Clued, 14 May 2024 16:32
Last post: LD1973, 16 May 2024 12:21
Who knows what games they play? They knocked it down to 90p which was completely unjustified IMO, then let it rise like phoenix! It’s all rigged. Maybe they’re after shares because they know the split cruddas talked about 2 years ago, is happening, which would probably double the share price.
LD1973, I was wondering if some fat finger or other mistake was made yesterday, sending the price down c 4.5%, and today the mistake was corrected sending the price up again, albeit other factors knocked it down, so the Net of yesterday and today is a lower share price. Hard to know.
Not sure what the MM’s are playing at? Maybe just trying to pick up more shares via stop losses?
My self also had a look for any clues, but could not find neither? Very, very strange?
Can't find any RNS or other reason for the large fall today. Broker Rating change ? Some questionable social media comment ?
Started: iliyanvelikov, 2 May 2024 08:46
Last post: retirment, 10 May 2024 08:04
I never set them, it's rigged to bomb you out.
Your know companies sell their stop loss data so traders can use it to work around?
I guess that's what they were after!
My stop loss got hit this morning at 245p. I still like CMCX but after this great run I may wait for a lower entry price.
Started: threeputt, 4 Apr 2024 15:24
Last post: Treven, 6 May 2024 06:22
Thanks Clued,
I use both of them for different purposes.
MarkBellUK, the CMCX price should recover fairly soon so .
Treven, they are both online brokers albeit with different products and HL's results were good so maybe some switch from CMCX to HL who knows !!
Not sure why anyone pays attention to them, but the fact people do, makes it criminal that they make these baseless recommendations
Clued Deutsche banks rating clearly got leaked, "to their associates" a couple of days in advance, hence the pullback
It annoys me the only reason they have said to sell it that we are currently at 25% above the median broker target price.
No concept of expansion , business model or increased operating margin etc etc - lazy gits
Started: MarkBellUK, 27 Mar 2024 13:43
Last post: MarkBellUK, 2 Apr 2024 12:21
PH & Jefferies both clueless
They had SELL's on PLUS for about 5 years when they went from £2 up to £18!
The dont like/understand this type of business model
… price target to 135p from 127p!
Has anybody just seen the latest broker forecast? They’ve just lifted their
Need the split to happen!
I have got 10% more than i hoped for , excellent day
Started: MarkBellUK, 2 Apr 2024 12:20
Last post: MarkBellUK, 2 Apr 2024 12:20
CMC Markets Plc : RBC raises target price to 240p from 190p
Started: mick-b, 27 Mar 2024 09:34
Last post: Clued, 27 Mar 2024 15:27
Thank you mick-b.
Thanks Mick
Operational leverage is working as investors and humble analysts hoped for. The balance between those two large numbers - net operating income and core operating costs - continues to look favourable for investors.
FY 2024 could see NOI of £315m and £240m of core operating costs, leaving £75m of pre-tax profits. The proviso is that this excludes variable remuneration and non-recurring items.
Variable remuneration has historically been quite large, e.g. £17m last year and £16m the year before that.
“Non-recurring items” is new: the company previously didn’t exclude this from its headline measure of operating expenses. So that will be something to watch out for. My guess is that the company will want to put redundancy costs in here, to show investors the one-off impact of its recently announced 17% reduction in headcount.
The FY March 2024 results should be very good, although could be impacted by those one-off costs.
The outlook for FY March 2025 should be excellent then, considering the new product launches, the positive momentum being enjoyed, and the lower cost base.
Of course we’ve just had an “ahead of expectations” trading update, which will require estimates to be revised, but I must say that the existing consensus earnings forecasts look very suspicious to me. CMC’s financial results are volatile and could surprise investors in either direction in FY 2025, but I’d say an upside surprise is more likely.
At a market cap of £579m I still view this as offering good value if the company continues to perform well, although I don’t have the same level of slam-dunk conviction as I had at the beginning of the calendar year. The share price has doubled since then:
https://app.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-weds-27-mar-2024-smds-fevr-993290?order=createdAt&sort=desc&mode=threaded
SUBSCRIPTION ONLY -hence printout
Started: MaryBr190, 27 Mar 2024 07:20
Last post: LD1973, 27 Mar 2024 11:03
Agreed, I was expecting something - Leaky ship!
Great increase today, this is on top of the general upward momentum we've had over the last two weeks. I kept expecting to read something on here with regards to what this might be but there has been very little activity. I guess this was it
Thank fu....
;)
Trading Update
Further to the trading update provided in January 2024, the Group now expects FY 2024 net operating income to exceed the top end of the previously guided range of between £290 and £310 million.
CMC Markets Plc
FY 2024 Pre-Close Trading Update
CMC Markets Plc ("CMC" or the "Group"), a leading global provider of online retail, institutional and B2B platform technology, today issues a trading update for the year to 31 March 2024 ("FY 2024").
Trading Update
Further to the trading update provided in January 2024, the Group now expects FY 2024 net operating income to exceed the top end of the previously guided range of between £290 and £310 million.
Following the strong trading performance seen in Q3, the positive momentum continued in the fourth quarter. We continue to see strength in the institutional and B2B business as the Group benefits from the long-term investments in this area. The Group also has a strong pipeline of B2B partnerships some of which are in the advanced stages.
From an operational perspective, development upgrades across platforms have continued as planned and in February the Group widened its trading offering with the rollout of OTC options. Following the launch of mutual funds in H1, SIPP accounts are set for imminent release on the Invest UK platform, as part of the ongoing enhancement of the long-term savings proposition.
Operating costs, excluding variable remuneration and non-recurring items, are expected to be in line with guidance at around £240 million for FY 2024.
With actions taken as part of the cost reduction and efficiency plans outlined in February 2024, the Group continues to identify opportunities for further cost savings across the global business as we focus on improving profit margins.
CMC is due to announce its FY 2024 results on 20 June 2024.
Started: MarkBellUK, 7 Feb 2024 10:19
Last post: mick-b, 27 Mar 2024 08:24
210p
flying....
CMC Markets sees FY operating income at top end of guidance
Exceed expectations means sp rise .
Plus 500 results are released on Tuesday 20th. Should be interesting.
Chart
https://ibb.co/pz8Vnn6
Started: Steve17, 27 Mar 2024 07:16
Last post: Steve17, 27 Mar 2024 07:16
Upgrade on income.
Started: MaryBr190, 5 Feb 2024 16:09
Last post: Apeirogon, 6 Feb 2024 12:47
I like the 360p valuation that they had pegged
Think this is it.
https://archive.ph/FqAlI
CMC Markets could split itself into two under plans being considered by founder and chief executive Peter Cruddas, the Tory peer.
Peter is very ambitious, old school.
Started: mick-b, 5 Feb 2024 17:49
Last post: mick-b, 5 Feb 2024 17:49
Analysing shares can be simple sometimes (maybe analysis is best when it’s simple?).
The investment thesis here has consisted of three simple ideas: revenues can improve, costs can stabilise, and then the operational leverage will see profits pick back up again.
First, revenues can improve cyclically when volatility picks up off its current low levels. Here is the VIX volatility sentiment, which as you can see has been quite depressed of late:
ajxTW-S2tOz8JZXv2O1LBcqPrExYd5BDRBZrplc9dZnXTT_1ODyUT0vYNPzw1ULUUQMrb2MqD5VXSripJscmBpGd9-O-JPjprEcUX98vGQLRZ_dA-jXl8iUVuWLfQpabGaqUoY3mKXj8pPCcDMAIoHA
The recent trading update hinted at sentiment recovering to some extent, with higher levels of interest in trading, even without much volatility in the market.
On the cost front, it was flagged by Lord Cruddas, and we were reminded in today’s update, that CMC’s investment cycle had “peaked” as it rolled out new products both at home and internationally.
However, I must admit that while I was optimistic that costs could be reduced, I did not expect such a radical change as a 200-person reduction in headcount. That £21m annual saving could transform results, if it’s true that this labour is surplus to requirements now that the company’s pace of product roll-out is slowing down.
Both forces (rising revenues and falling costs) appear to be moving in the right direction, so clearly I’m going to keep my positive stance on this share. Hopefully FY March 2025 will be the year when we see CMC returning back to healthy profitability as it was before.
https://app.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-mon-5-feb-2024-placeholder-988097?order=createdAt&sort=desc&mode=threaded
(subscription only - hence printout)
Started: MaryBr190, 5 Feb 2024 08:53
Last post: MaryBr190, 5 Feb 2024 16:05
Great traction today.
Cruddas owns too many shares for a bid (unless he wants out). Criminal the way this was dropped from £3! Very frustrating
"Cost reductions have been primarily achieved by merging support functions across multiple business lines, streamlining reporting lines and automating processes. The group will continue to seek opportunities to drive efficiencies and control costs while remaining committed to investing in growth opportunities and ensuring its technology remains market leading," CMC said.
A share to hold, rerate well underway.
Upward trend to 219p + higher in 2024.
Reaping rewards of the strategy.
Started: MarkBellUK, 5 Feb 2024 13:37
Last post: MarkBellUK, 5 Feb 2024 13:40
Looks like Shore Capital have upgraded from Sell to Hold as well
Starting to look good
CMC Markets Plc : Peel Hunt raises target price to 200p from 140p
Started: MaryBr190, 5 Feb 2024 10:07
Last post: MaryBr190, 5 Feb 2024 10:21
Expecting 170 shortly as they are trying to limit if to that level. £2 incoming imho.
Got excited for 6 secs thinking BIDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD !
Sell: 171.20p | Buy: 153.00p
Started: golfnut59, 5 Feb 2024 07:16
Last post: ShearClass, 5 Feb 2024 09:10
This news certainly adds further momentum to the recovery and great to get confirmation that H2 operating income remains on track for £167-187m. There is no pattern to H1/H2 trading here, however looking at historic splits since IPO it's unusual for strong momentum to only last 6 months. Consequently, I expect their FY25 guidance to come in well above the current market expectations which have a mid point of £295m, and could be anywhere up to the FY22 3 year target level of £360m. Couple that with the efficiency savings and operating income will be back well above £100m and I expect shares will be at least £2.50...
CMCX opened at 144p, not bad for a start
It certainly should.
And excellent reaffirmation
Trading remains in line with expectations and the Group is on track to deliver net operating income of between £290-£310 million for FY24.
160p opening if there's any justice.
Never nice to see people lose their jobs but these cost reductions will certainly give the share price a boost
Started: MaryBr190, 15 Jan 2024 22:37
Last post: Cheapsharesboy, 26 Jan 2024 09:21
Looks like CMC done incredibly well recently. IG revenue down but CMC up. Looks like they have grabbed market share but also as a small operator are much better placed to outperform. Seems IG has ran into difficulty. Cmc on the other hand just turning a corner..
Cheap
UK is so undervalued and neglected when you compare the moves stateside. Hope to see this back at £3 at some point. Fingers in many pies.
Elsewhere, RBC Capital Markets said it sees further upside at CMC Markets despite a near-50% jump in the stock over the past two months following a positive trading update from the online trading company.
The share price hit a yearly low of 86.9p in late November, after the company reported it swung to a loss before tax of £2m in its first half ended 30 September, while net operating income slumped 20% to £122.6m.
However, in a trading update two weeks ago, CMC said improved market conditions means it is now targeting a full-year net operating income of £290-310m, up from previous guidance of £250-280m.
The broker lifted its target price for the shares from 140p to p150p, keeping an 'outperform' rating, after lifting its earnings per share estimates for the current year by a whopping 219% to 7.85p. RBC is now forecasting a full-year pre-tax profit of £30.1m, up from an earlier forecast of £10.4m.
RBC kept its estimates for the next two years relatively unchanged and it noted "upside risk in the event of bouts of higher volatility, with elections in 2024 in the US and UK providing potential opportunities".
"Whilst outer year forecasts are unchanged our confidence in profit progression is also increased, given conservative growth forecasts, and as we await further details about potential cost efficiencies from FY25 onwards," RBC said.
"CMC shares have made a strong start to 2024 YTD (up 27% in total shareholder return terms), but the current valuation still screens as relatively undemanding when surplus capital is factored in."
I was thinking more like 200p - 270p.
But I may be overtly optimistic on that target
Mary you here as well?
Seems quite undervalued here too so I'm here as well
Altough I don't post here.
Started: MarkBellUK, 22 Jan 2024 09:55
Last post: MarkBellUK, 22 Jan 2024 09:55
CMC Markets Plc : RBC raises target price to 150p from 140p
Moving in the right direction but still way of true value IMHO
Started: ShearClass, 11 Jan 2024 15:13
Last post: Beza, 12 Jan 2024 10:01
Shear class
The figures that you’ve stated in your previous post are very interesting. I use Stockopedia and the forecast figures for ‘25 which they are quoting is £320M revenue, eps 9p and 4.5 divi. I’ll keep an eye out to see if these forecasts are revised upwards following the managements bullish update.
The trading update on Monday was truly spectacular; from £122.6m of net operating income in H1 they now expect to report £290-310m for the FY. This means H2 is on track for £168-£188m in net operating income, for context if we exclude the covid fuelled 2021 period which had half year results of £230m & £178m, the next best result in CMC history was the £155m recorded in the 6 months to 31/03/22. Indeed, the last 5 half yearly periods to 30/09/23 had average net operating income of £138m, so Monday's jump was really impressive.
With operating costs expected to be flat vs H1 (£118m), the updated forecast numbers suggest that H2 pre tax profit will come in at £50-70m, which if realised at the midpoint would result in EPS of 16p a dividend payout of ~8p.
Why is this particularly notable in my opinion? Let's cast back to their 2022 results; "Investment in growth initiatives is expected to result in a 30% increase in net operating income over the next three years."
That was from a baseline of £282m net operating income, meaning their 3 year target for FY25 was ~£367m, or £183.5m a half, which is more or less in line with where H2 24 is forecast to land...
So are they on track for their medium term guidance? A level of income which would deliver operating profit of ~£130m based on operating costs plateauing at FY24 levels? I guess we'll have to wait a few months to find out! However, if they were to hit those targets in FY25 it would result in post tax profit of ~£100m, EPS of 36p and DPS of 18p.
That would mean shares trading at 127p are on a forward P/E of 3.5 and a FCF yield of nearly 30%. That ignores the >£200m net cash on their balance sheet too. It looks to be a very interesting play for a recovery over the next year IMO.