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I've been thinking this, too. I'm not sure he wants to take them private, but I do think he wants to launch another share buyback program. The best time to do this would be if they get demoted from FTSE250 and tracker funds sell their stake at depressed levels.
To add to that, CMC is highly likely to be demoted from the FTSE250 at the end of next month, assuming share price remains same or falls from here.
Share buyback last year: £30m at an average share price of £2.58... since then the price is -40%. During the share buyback period, the average volume traded per day was 576k shares and since then it's averaging below 300k shares, with this month almost at 200k.
Prior to the results yesterday, the consensus was roughly: £315m net operating income; £67m PBT; £50m PAT; 18p EPS. With the guide of 15-20% decline in trading activity for Q1, I assume those will be revised down.
It's in the annual report on their website.
As per the footnote in the annual report, they paid £2.8m for the stake in StrikeX.
Client trading activity down 15-20% in Q1... If that continues throughout the year then they'll roughly breakeven for 2024 (not end of the world).
I assume we'll find out how much they paid for the 33% stake on Tuesday.
As an investor in CMC, I hate this on the face of it. If they've paid more than 1m I'm out. At a time when the SEC is going after coins and tokens that are securities (which StrikeX clearly is), this is such an unusual decision. They were even offering to give away Lamborghinis if the coin reached a certain price... I hope the CMC board has actually done some due diligence. Anyway, I hope they only invested an inconsequential amount.
I would much prefer that they focus on the core business for the results on Tuesday, but I guess that won't be the case now.
Not happening. There's a section in the interim results "managed separation update" which makes it clear.
Share buyback is now complete. Wonder how this will trade going forward...
I get the impression they're sandbagging the trading update. The corresponding trading update from last year was forecasting 330m for operating income, which would be above consensus for FY23.
Agree with Mark. Numbers slightly above expectation, albeit marginal (slightly higher income, lower expenses, higher EPS and divi). Probably too marginal to matter. 30% top line growth over 3 years would also beat market expectations. I like the growth in AUA in Aussie. No mention of separation review - not sure what to make of that... maybe some surprise announcement of separation will come this year, maybe it won't.
Cheers for posting that Mark. I find it interesting that the Times thinks that the findings of the separation review aren't expected this week (the original RNS in Nov 2021 said it'd be completed by June 2022). I'm guessing that might indicate that they have some plan to progress with a separation but it can't be made public at this stage - if their review found it's not possible then they'd surely announce that.
No worries. Always good to double check anyway!
Not sure why it would end soon. The programme has bought back roughly 4.7m shares, averaging something like 275p a share... we're not even at 50% of the £30m yet. Current run-rate suggests it'll go until September. Please correct me if wrong.
I must be missing something. I'm only estimating at most $40m.
Not sure it's reassuring for us shareholders. They bought back shares from someone looking to exit at prices 20% above the current price. The buyback programme is also independent from the company and independently managed by RBC... they'll likely be using some sort of VWAP, so the buybacks are indiscriminate buying and will pay whatever the price is.
Mark, it's a good point that they're consistently bearish on the sector - I doubt their downgrade ultimately had much impact (and shouldn't going forward as imo they're wrong). It's interesting that Canaccord have actually increased their price target today for Plus500.
LD, the share buyback is only about 16% complete.
Have you seen the Canaccord report?
What's the blatant manipulation, Dodger?
As for results on Friday, what's everyone's expectations? The analyst consensus of £262.9m seems on the low side. I imagine the market is actually expecting something towards the high-end of CMC's forecast (somewhere around £280m). I'm personally expecting £285m... anything below £280m is a miss for me.