The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Agree goldgnome
FED decision in, speech in 30mins- in case you were wondering why swings...
The blockchain technology I am most taken by stems from Etherium and Binance.
This has got some semblance of having very sound foundations, both technical and social. I think it is potentially a far better construct than the US$ and their poorly engineered financial system, and has some sense of stakeholder communities, and other social concepts (I am not a socialist) that the US$ lacks totally. The US$ is really driven by elites for the elites, etc I guess their own defintion of "democracy" (democracy is certainly something they do not have in the USA despite the rhetoric.)
The Crypto space is the wild west, at best, but the base technology is what is really the valauble contribution.
So I am a big believer in Blockchain, technology. There will be very reputable organisations that do have and exhibit social repsonsibility, and there are a few now. Don't waste time with the wild west profiteers, see through this greed and stupidity. They feed into other speculators who follow greed and stupiditiy, and they end up covered in greed and mired in stupidity.
Nothing to see here, been going on for Millenia I suspect.
best
the Gnome
Thats a great idea Cowichan! However with a project that is obviously marginal, a 3% royalty would kill it. I think there is a govt royalty already. I would go for a 1-1.5% NSR, and if the project did get going, then this could be on sold, for $10-30m, depending on a few factors.
Good thinking though! Hope they have done some thinking like this ...
best
the Gnome
Thanks for the update goldgnome
A solution for attaining value at Batie/Konkera (if management was actively seeking one) was available.
Chiefly, instead of allowing the resource at Batie to return to the state and waste Centamin shareholders tens of millions in exploration costs - simply sign over the resource with a 3% royalty attached if and when the resource enters production. Zero risk. Zero cost.
To simply 'walk away' is gross negligence, a colossal failure and dereliction of fiduciary duty.
The good thing with the oil price is that Russia is currently selling bucket loads of the stuff largely to China & India but quite a few others including Indonesia are lining up.
Russia is doing this at around $20 below the Brent price so everyone participating are happy, Russia gets steady revenue & the purchasers are saving billions a month!
This should serve to keep a lid on oil for the time being however come the European winter the doo doo may really hit the fan :)
NOT ON TOPIC, BUT PERHAPS OF INTEREST
One of the great myths about our current industries of innovation is the use and abuse of gamification. Hardly what one would associate with productivity increase, but rather something opposite. Of course lots of debate,
How games are being harnessed as instruments of exploitation—and what we can do about it
"Warehouse workers pack boxes while a virtual dragon races across their screen. If they beat their colleagues, they get an award. If not, they can be fired. Uber presents exhausted drivers with challenges to keep them driving. China scores its citizens so they behave well, and games with in-app purchases use achievements to empty your wallet.
Points, badges, and leaderboards are creeping into every aspect of modern life. In You’ve Been Played, game designer Adrian Hon delivers a blistering takedown of how corporations, schools, and governments use games and gamification as tools for profit and coercion. These are games that we often have no choice but to play, where losing has heavy penalties. You’ve Been Played is a scathing indictment of a tech-driven world that wants to convince us that misery is fun, and a call to arms for anyone who hopes to preserve their dignity and autonomy."
https://www.amazon.com.au/Youve-Been-Played-Corporations-Governments-ebook/
75 remains most likely- but, as ever, what Powell says will have biggest impact ...
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/09/20/fed-expected-to-hike-rates-by-three-quarters-of-a-point-again-but-its-forecast-may-matter-most.html
Cowichan
I think CEY have been actively trying to seek partners (it is deifntiely in their best interests to do so, and to do this quickly), as they have had a very large data room open for a long time, and I know several groups have had a good look at it, none offering much for the Project. The killer has been the metallurgy (requires an ultrafine grind, less than 10 micron?) and the strip ratio (very high), in short.
regards
the Gnome
Thanks Torna
Its the exhorbitant privilege of the US and the US$ that is causing a lot of issues, elst call these distortions. Right now, the US$ being the most secure "asset" (I certainly do not think this) in many investors mind, there is a run towards it, which is now over pricing the US$. This causes other asset classes to be devalued. In Australia our currency has fallen to a low of 0.67, and trending down, despite a mining boom, and despite a $50 improvement in our budget.
So the short answer on gold is it is undervalued. The USD is hugely overvalued, which is not int he US best interest, so I cannot see this as lasting.
The FED continues to amaze me with their irrational solutions to problems they largely create. When they do not create the problems, then the sloppy US Bank system and Wall Street greed obliges. The trouble is that these insto's create mayhem in the global market, which is not what should happen in a well engineered financial system.
I think well run gold mining companies (not too many of these mind you), and or well run royalty companies are of great interest.
best
the gnome
Hi Sotolo,
What some folks have done is to ensure broker portfolios have a high level of cash by taking monies out of the banks and to sit as an asset ready to deploy. The cash held in portfolios by managers is around 6% who are expected to be fully invested and do invest in TIPs as you suggest. Private investors may be sitting say at 40% ready to do a 100% average down if positions collapsed with their cash being deployed.
The issues many folks have is whether all the USA release of fuel from reserves will eventually lead to a rebound in oil prices. If it does the inflation rate will kick off higher again, and labour rates go higher to take it further. Interest rates are going high at a time when government debt is sky high. So can the FED and others break down inflation or will it continue higher, and the central banks create sovereign default risks. USD is an overcrowded trade, and we could have the yen, pound and euro collapse further. Gold in other currencies, take the pound, has moved up £1300 (a year ago) to £1560 at a peak and is currently at £1465 an ounce (up 12% against the existing inflation). It is therefore a runaway dollar that is lowering gold prices in USA terms, but hardly at all around the globe. If the dollar were to collapse than the currency devaluation from where overseas buyers bought the tips would need to be off set against those prices and the value of other currencies might recover from their lows against USD. It is a calculation that every bond buyer has to consider. Hope what I write has helped. Everybody is trying to hedge on what is an awful recession on the horizon. Tony
Gnome did you enigmatic end mean toss a coin, or that you thought it obvious? I thought it likelier you were suggesting gold would rise in this scenario, but if so what of Cey in a stock market that could quarter or halve from here, depending what happens with interest rates and inflation? Thanks for your wise words, as so many of teh knowledgable here, as ever
To ask a question such as you asked, who dishes out opinions all the time sounds ridiculous.
Toss a coin ,no one can be absoloutely sure about the future,especially now.
So it would be you who mjay be making a snide remark.
Enjoy your day Sotolo.
European stock markets traded mixed in the premarket on Wednesday with all eyes on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later in the day. Geopolitical tensions flared once again as separatist regions in Ukraine revealed that referendums to join Russia will be held this week. Western leaders condemned the move at the United Nations General Assembly, after which Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization.
The FTSE 100 dropped 0.26% at 8:06 am CET, while the DAX was down 0.19% and the CAC 40 lost 0.38%.
The euro traded 0.18% lower compared to the dollar and went for 0.99498 at 8:08 am CET, while the pound was down 0.10% against the dollar and sold for 1.13713.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / DJ
Happy hump y’al
PS TIPS ( U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed), probably the most important metric affecting gold and our share, could rise considerably more, they made over 3%, 3 times higher than now, in 2008. However built into the high price is an expectation that high rates, and the accompanying depression, will knock inflation right back, Gnome may think the market has got this wrong.
Mizolgit I am not, I genuinely want to know what gnome thinks.
Most economists say that rising interest rates (tips have risen from -1% to +1.2%, an extraordinary rise of over 2% since the start of the year) mean falling stocks falling gold and faster falling gold mining stocks as hit by both. Last time this happened, though not quite such a big rise, gold fell from near $1800 to $1200 and Cey form around 100 to around 34p or three fold
But some believe in this time it is different and that in an economically challenged world investors may take the solace in gold and it will rise enough to even lift gold shares troubled by soaring costs and overall lower PE’s. Gnome leave his view enigmatically open, maybe because he thinks most possibilities equally likely, or because he is suggesting misery but is too sensitive to dot the i’s . Despite your snide remarks as usual I would like to know his wise opinion. And if I did know what he thought, Miz unlike you I wouldn’t have to pretend to ask for an answer
https://schiffgold.com/exploring-finance/comex-stock-report-the-vaults-are-still-bleeding/
So now Sotolo is trying and pretending to be thick.
Ha Ha.
Gnome, which means gold will….what?
And what about gold shares
He gives logical reasons in the article.
The market has been injected with too much Botox is the way I see it.
We all will soon see.
Economist Nouriel Roubini, who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis, sees a “long and ugly” recession in the US and globally occurring at the end of 2022 that could last all of 2023 and a sharp correction in the S&P 500.
“Even in a plain vanilla recession, the S&P 500 can fall by 30 per cent,” said Roubini, chairman and chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates, in an interview this week. In “a real hard landing”, which he expects, it could fall 40 per cent.
So its not a bad bet to expect there will be some downside adjustment coing inthe near futire to shares which will mean Gold will ....
best
the gnome
Thanks Cowichan
My read, is that the deposit is problematical in terms of commerciality, IF ONE ASSUMES YOU NEED TO PRODUCE X00,000 OUNCES PER ANNUM. For various reasons this is what most companies do.
So I can imagine that for Centamin and "most companies" this is the outcome, and hence they could not sell the Batie Project. It simply did not provide a ROI.
So rather than spend money on trying to flog a dead horse to no one who is interested (!?) they just gave up on further losses, and ceded to government
It one way of getting the project off of managment time, and of giving to the rightful priject owners.
So I m not dismayed that it has not turn out l am happy that the Doropo 5 m ounces has come out of the Ampellla investment
It could have been done better, but this is the mining industry, and it is not the smartest industry in the room.
CEY needs to focus, and I believe it is , and this is part of the focussing process, and yes, I have misgivings, but they must move on. Death by a 1,000 cuts is not exciting
best
the gnome
thanks goldgnome -
if this is the case with the Batie resource the current management & directorship have deceived shareholders by indicating they have been in active divestiture mode
But I doubt if any among us will pursue an explanation or accountability though , we are a pretty sad bunch of 'investors'
isn't any wonder executives abuse their power when repercussions clearly are few and far between
Thanks Spoonington
It does look like another act of stupidity, by both sides. One would have hoped that they could have learnt from some of the stupid conflcits of the last 80 years, but the only thing we ever learn is they never learn.
Whoever thought they would benefit is an interesting question?
Oddly the US seems well positioned to gain the most, and lose the least. Their citizens dont get exposed to a shuddering cold winter, no exposure to low flying shrappnel, minimal exposure to any collateral risks like nuclear powerstataion malfunction and so on.
Not sure what Germany was thinkiing, nor any of the other Europoean countries for that matter.
Its great to be at the bus stop near the end of the world, watching from afar, wondering. Well not a lot of wondering, just happy to be geeting a ringside seat at the AFL grandfinal comining up fast !!! Go the Swans !!!
and of course, go GOLD !!!
best
the Gnome
Major European indexes rose in premarket trading on Tuesday as investors awaited German producer prices data and focused on the United States Federal Reserve's two-day meeting, which starts today and during which the bank is expected to agree on a new rate hike. Elsewhere, speakers including French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are set to take the stage at the United Nations General Assembly.
The FTSE 100 increased 0.59% at 7:06 am CET, the DAX jumped 0.65% and the CAC 40 climbed 0.66% at the same time.
The euro and the pound traded flat against the dollar, selling for 1.00239 and 1.14293, respectively, at 7:07 am CET.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / NP