The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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European stock exchanges traded lower on Wednesday premarket following recent news about the end of the referenda in Ukraine, and the subsequent statement by Moscow that is expected to come after these latest events. The downward trend has also been affected by global concerns around inflation and the trading session in the Asia-Pacific region.
During the day, European Central Bank President Christine Lagard is to hold a speech, while Gfk will publish data on German consumer confidence for October.
The FTSE 100 declined by 0.55% at 8:00 am CET, the DAX dropped by 1.27% and the CAC 40 was down by 1.39% at the same time.
The pound traded 0.48% lower against the dollar to go for 1.06816 at 8:00 am CET. The euro fell by 0.39% to the US currency to sell for 0.95563 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / MM
Happy hump y’al
Tony you are of course absolutely right about what matters. I looked up the Chan article, how do you interpret it?
Sotolo, (all other readers out there),
The number one important issue in your life is your health. If everything is working fine and you can still laugh at yourself and remain resilient, your still in business. The second is your family is in good health and if you have a mortgage free house as well it qualifies you as still be wealthy as an awful lot of people do not have that position.
I recall when I was new to investing and thought it was clever putting a huge amount of money into National Grid shares. Six weeks later after they denied they were going to do a rights issue but they did one in May 2010 to please the regulator. NG shares collapsed by 40% on a single RNS. I held firm and did all the right things to please the wife (which is extremely important in such circumstances). A year later the National Grid shares recovered, and I sold out with a £20,000 gain. If I had held them and did nothing, I would have made far more money, but the lesson encouraged me never again to have all the eggs in one basket.
I thought Chan's observation on the gold market was interesting at Gold Eagle last Saturday. It matches up with a major event happening in October. I have a feeling China is starting to sell all those USA Treasuries their holding. Take care whatever happens and all the best. Tony
Mia, I totally have made big mistakes in life, including perhaps the biggest sadly investing large amounts in Cey and Hoc, and blindly holding on despite my warnings, so far….maybe they will come good one day,tho I have my doubts about Hoc
Sotolo its no different than kicking a dog that is either dead or dying.
Most know it is very wrong.
It is the investors choice which deserves some respect, you also have made mistakes in life I am sure.
Think about it.
Miz being honest and saying it as it is can of course be unpopular as investors of course want to hear that their shares will rise; unfortunately due to the inept actions, or lack thereof, from central bankers share prices are likely to fall further. Hochschild unlike Centamin is already making losses, and worse has 9 figure debts rather than 9 figures of money in the bank. Don’t shoot the messenger
I see Sotolo has been cheering people up on the HOC Boardroom.
Dont think he is very popular.
Major European indexes increased in premarket trading on Tuesday as stocks looked to recover from the recent selloff caused by recession worries. Amid the plunge of the pound, the Bank of England announced it will "not hesitate" to change interest rates "as necessary" but did not take any immediate action.
The FTSE 100 rose 0.13% at 7:20 am CET, the DAX climbed 0.46% and the CAC 40 was up 0.40% at the same time.
The pound gained 0.76% against the dollar to recover some losses and go for 1.07700 at 7:22 am CET and the euro added 0.96402 compared to the US currency to sell for 0.96391 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / NP
Well Goldgnome, the last 10years has been poor on growth, plus increased population, increased public services spend and increased taxes has caused dire growth by comparison with other countries. Accept brexit, covid, Ukraine war and ridiculous net zero targets, but something had to change and I am pleased with what Truss is doing- would have raised tax free amount and cut fuel duty but you can't have everything- I recall 364 (including Bank of England) said Thatcher's tax cuts in 1986 would end up in disaster and the opposite happened- had we continued on the Sunak route - deeper and more painful recession would have ensued- only an odiot keeps doing the same things and expects different results...
Monet pennies Spanish cousin.
I agree. Mr Tibbs contributions have been absent too long.
Funny how no one ever publicises their short when it goes up lol- but to be fair the last few years lol
Took a short position september on 22/09/22.. in Centamin.
@Sotolo `MY TAKE` .... The reason gold is at its price now is not because of lack of demand it`s due to the major banks heavily shorting it ... Without this downward pressure gold would fly ! There is not enough gold in the vaults to cover a fraction of paper interests and if the price was allowed higher they are scared that people would want their physical gold and that would kill those leveraged dealers. If that occurs gold price would truly rocket skyward, (supply / demand,) and the miners would flourish. That possibility cant be that far off as Russia / China`s gold backed currency plans gather pace it will bring those leveraged dealers crashing down to earth along with the Dollar. All IMHO DYOR etc
If £/$ Rate was 1.43 as in 2018 before Brexit vote, Centamin would be in the 50’s. Without the recent fall it would be in the 60’s. The Price is so weak as it is making little profit at these gold prices and as gold fall further which seems likely will make losses. However as long as it stops paying dividends and conserves cash it should sail through to the uplands in 2024 or 5, just a shame it is another couple of years again
Would have thought the US $ Strength v GBP (up 5% overnight) (12% in a week) would have supported the SP in our favour, as Gold is in quoted in $
Missing you Mr Tibbs...
It will close the higher gap at some point in the future.
Gold in sterling within 2% of its all time high. Great for gold owners. Unfortunately for us miner investors costs in Sterling are over 50% higher which gets rid of the profit pretty much. The only heartening thing is that without sterling’s fall Cey share price would be back nearer 50p. However assuming it was a hedge against this situation turns out to have been a mistake
Major European markets traded mostly lower in Monday's pre-market session amid heightened concerns about inflation, the war in Ukraine, and their potential second-round effects.
Earlier, it was known that the right-wing coalition led by Giorgia Meloni and her party, Brothers of Italy, had come out on top in the Italian general election.
The DAX lost 0.75% at 7:10 am CET, while the CAC 40 fell 0.82%, and the FTSE 100 rose 0.13%.
The euro was down by 0.61% against the dollar at 7:22 am CET, selling for $0.96297. In comparison, the pound lost 2.67% to go for $1.05692 simultaneously.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JG
Happy Monday y’al
Thanks Damo
Greatland is a great story of discovery. A friend of mine , Jim Hanneson, was intimately involved in this and that story has been finally told, and you can read it at this link
Discovery of the Havieron Gold-Copper deposit, WA
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14432471.2022.2103941
Nice to have copper and gold at the right grades, and enough of it...plus a needy partner
Alien look like they should focus a bit more.
best
the Gnome
Thanks Goldgnome.
The problem I have ,is knowing what is true.
The media and "Politicians " cannot be trusted, the internet with many trolls.
At least years ago before Murdoch , most knew a newspaper was either right or left leaning.
Now its like stepping back in time listening to Town Cryers.But much faster.
THE POWER OF THE INTERNET? Incredibly powerful today, more than when I was a young gun [living in a 3,000 person town in rural Australia], that one can access intelligent life forms on the internet. Of course there are plenty of the other people around as well.
Some very big discussions In and about Oz, not making it into the main stream mass hysteria,
China debate: John Mearsheimer | Hugh White | Tom Switzer
For years, Australian policymakers have balanced China’s desire for an enhanced regional role (whatever this is, but it might be that China has a large population, that devours [our] natural resources, or produces more engineers in a year than there have been engineers in the history of Australia or whatever) with our desire for U.S. protection (this generally means buying nucelar submarines, f99 air fighters etc). However, contrary to the Canberra consensus, there is going to be an intense strategic rivalry between our major trading partner and our major strategic ally.
According to John Mearsheimer, one of America’s leading foreign-policy thinkers, Washington will not let China become the dominant military power in the region without putting up a serious fight (and of course where there is a fight there will be US products and services and a buck to be made, but lets move on and sweep $10's billions under the fog of threats, real and made up)). In these circumstances, it’s naïve to think that Australia can sit on the sidelines and get the best of both worlds: unconstrained trade with China while keeping the U.S. security umbrella over its head. Canberra must support Uncle Sam. And why not ...?
However, Australia’s future will be dominated by China, says one of Australia’s leading strategic thinkers Hugh White..we have been there for a long while now. Treasury forecasts show that the Chinese economy will be about 80 per cent bigger than America’s within a dozen years...and so the sun is setting, giving out its last flashes of whatever. In this environment, Canberra must prepare for the new strategic terrain in the wake of America’s declining (declined) leadership, and we would be unwise to support Washington in a confrontation with China that America probably cannot win...but of course we will do whatever America wants ...
Have a listen, think critically, and form your own opinion (s)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRlt1vbnXhQ
And lets not mention Russia again, at least for a few days
best
the gnome
Thanks Damo
I read from a very wide range of sources, including funadmental data sources
https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-reserves-by-country
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.CD?locations=US
https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-much-gold-has-been-found-world
https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/intlsumm/current.htm
There are interesting professional papers, written pre-1970 (ruff estimate), when they were worth something, and not biased towards non professional ends
https://www.jstor.org/stable/1914508
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/FRB/pages/1945-1949/30033_1945-1949.pdf
and others
https://www.newyorkfed.org/data-and-statistics
A few things to keep in the back of your mind
IMF economist Prakash Loungani : “The record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished.”
...
Galloway asked: “Has there been another point in economic history where we’ve had full employment, an inverted yield curve and interest rates rising this fast?”
Tyler Cowen (Economist) responded: “I have never seen this configuration of economic numbers and variables in economic history, ever. It is unique and I think we are poorly positioned to make very dogmatic predictions for that reason… So I think we are flying blind and hoping for the best.”
Interesting little piece, that provides the expose on the dilemna.
https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/center/mm/eng/sc_sub_3.htm
The Central Banks adopted the position of being able to print as much currency (IOU's) as possible, so they can do what currency is meant to do. Circulate and be a means of efficient and effective exchange to allow businesses to operate.
This leads into confusion of currency and assets. Currency is not an asset, but rather a depreciating "efficiency" for transactions. Simply perhaps the best they could do at the time. BUt we have the internet now, and a lot of business has moved into the internet. The most successful is Alibaba, not surprisingly Chinese. It is an interesting business model, v different from those much lauded US business models. Personally I think it is a far more sustainable business model. And there is blockchain...
I suspect something far more efficeint in terms of financial structure and efficiencies are being constructed in China. You have to dig to find these out, as best not to shine too brightly(until it is time). The US is v concerned about the strength of China, and of course you will see endless rhetoric negative to China. Human rights etc...speaking fo which the uS should not attempt the high ground?
best
the gnome
Thast just what we know ...
Remember there are numerous other state bodies besides the central bank that own gold: the army, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and China Investment Corporation, the sovereign wealth fund. Precious metals analyst Bron Suchecki, formerly of the Perth Mint, says 55%.
Even at 50%, the implication is that China owns more than 16,350 tonnes – double the US figure. I can’t see how its national holdings are anything like the 1,948 tonnes they say they are. To declare markedly larger holdings would cause an unwanted surge in both the yuan and the gold price.
The state’s US dollar reserves would be devalued. It would be a direct challenge to US supremacy. China is probably not yet ready for that. For now it follows Deng Xiaoping’s doctrine: “We must not shine too brightly.”
But if that Russia-China axis wants to weaponise money, as the US has done, all China has to do is declare its gold holdings, and perhaps even partially back the new currency it plans to launch, a central bank-backed digital yuan, with them.
Unbacked Western fiat money risks losing a great deal of its purchasing power in such an event. It could create chaos in the West. But that is the card China now has with its 20 years of relentless accumulation.
In short, any new money whose aim is to get SCO trading with each other outside of a US-controlled banking system is going to need to involve gold for it to work. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them attempt the Glazyev system described above and for it not to work because of the trust problem, and because most of those nations are going to want to retain the right to print.
They could then try a second time, giving gold a more prominent role, and this time it might work better.
It seems obvious to me, that China has the capacity, and the influence to force a better global currency, one that is more inclusive and less exclusive to the domain of one country. If they include Russia and Inida, and Asia, then the custmer bases starts to look very solid. If they start to wiedl positive influence in countries, like they are by buidling infrastructure, and meddling endlessly with governments, endless debt issuance (the worst being where debt is issued to a government, whose poilitical elite syphon off inot bank accounts in the Treasure Islands, leaving the liability to the people)
China may still not be shining too brightly yet, but its time cometh, ... and ... “Let China Sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world,” (Napoleon Bonaparte). ONE EYE IS OPEN NOW ...
best
the gnome