Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
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We know that many countries in the SCO have plenty of gold and have been increasing their holdings. In the 14 years between 2006 and 2020, Russia’s central bank more than quintupled the country’s gold holdings, from around 400 tonnes to today’s 2,300 tonnes or so. It’s now world’s fifth-largest gold owner.
Then there is China. It has been quietly de-dollarising. Since 2021 China has lowered its holdings of both dollars and US Treasuries by 10%. Its holdings in US Treasuries have dropped by over $100bn since 2021, and it now has less than $1trn in US debt for the first time since 2010.
Its US dollar foreign-exchange reserves have come down from $3.25trn to $3trn over the same period. Having seen what happened to Russia, China will not want to be too vulnerable to a banking system that is run by the West.
Then there are China’s gold holdings. I consider this the most important story in world finance, yet it is largely ignored. China has far more gold than it says. China’s stated reserves are 1,948 tonnes of gold (barely 3% of its foreign exchange reserves). America’s are 8,100 tonnes (over 65% of national reserves).
Now we consider Chinese mining and its imports. China is the world’s largest producer of gold. This past decade it has produced about 15% of all the gold mined in the world. Since 2000, China has mined roughly 6,830 tonnes. China keeps the gold it mines. Over half of Chinese gold production is state-owned, and the export of domestic mine production is not allowed.
Given 6,830 tonnes of production, its official 1,948 figure already looks dubious. Chinese mining companies have also been buying assets across Africa, South America and Asia, and international production now exceeds domestic production (by approximately 15 tonnes in 2020).
China is also the world’s top importer of gold. Imports via Hong Kong alone, never mind Switzerland or Dubai (for which we don’t have numbers), have amounted to more than 6,700 tonnes since 2000.
Most of the gold that enters China goes through the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), so the SGE is a proxy for demand. We know that since 2008, 22,000 tonnes of gold has been purchased by and delivered to physical gold buyers in China.
There is also gold that enters China that isn’t accounted for by SGE withdrawals. The central bank oversees the SGE, but its purchases do not go through it. It likes to buy 12.5 kilogram (kg) bars, which do not trade on the SGE, and it often uses dollars on exchanges in London, Dubai and Switzerland, while the SGE sells its gold in yuan. So there is plenty of tonnage we cannot account for.
Add to this gold held in China, whether as bullion or jewellery, prior to 2000 – the World Gold Council estimates 2,500 tonnes in privately-held jewellery – plus domestic mining and official reserves, you get a figure of around 4,000 tonnes. Cobble it all together – cumulative production, imports and existing stock – and you arrive at a figure around 32,700 tonnes. That’s ju
Thanks SJ999
Thats a huge call on leadership. Of course the obvious huge quesiton is leading where?
best
the gnome
The hyperbole has reached levels on doom not seen since.... oh June2022 lol- if, like most people, investments are balanced and global, U.K. issues not the end of the world as some seem to think. I like what the U.K. have done- bold, and far better than doing nothing or persuing the dire Sunak policies. Corporation tax not going up (massive phew- it was bonkers to propose 25%!!!) tax off the wealthy, will boost investment- gas cap etc helps all and business- something had to be done! Going for growth is positive - last PM and chancellor was tax, tax and more tax and restrict growth and shell out unlimited money to pointless panics like covid and following public opinion-
Leadership is here at last- time will tell, and of course, I invest globally so balance is key, so again, as has never been, overly invested in U.K.
Times are looking predictably grim, not much end in sight, and especially in the UK it seems!
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers blasted the economic policies being adopted by newly installed UK Prime Minister Liz Truss, saying they’re creating the circumstances for the pound to sink past parity with the US dollar.
“It makes me very sorry to say, but I think the UK is behaving a bit like an emerging market turning itself into a submerging market,” Summers told Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” with David Westin.
Summers: “”It would not surprise me if the pound eventually gets below a US dollar.” Bloomberg
“Between Brexit, how far the Bank of England got behind the curve and now these fiscal policies, I think Britain will be remembered for having pursuing the WORST macroeconomic policies of any major country in a long time.”
Truss’s government has set out the most radical package of tax cuts for the UK since 1972, reducing levies both on worker pay and companies in an effort to boost the long-term potential of the economy. Economists are concerned the package is unaffordable and will trigger a currency crisis over concerns about rising debt.
I would hang onto my CEY shares, even top up!
best
the gnome
It's nothing to do with the UK- simply following the US like all global markets do in the vast majority of cases- I do agree, however, the drop in the pound is. As a proxy, the S&P now down to the June2022 drop level.
I also agree miners, incl. CEY have been awful investments in the past 5 years or more.
Well without sterling’s further 3% fall we would have tumbled even more, the real price has been continuously falling with the pound, while the nominal sterling price has held relatively steady so we have been falling less than we would. In Toronto we have fallen from 3.85 to 1.27 nearly 70% in two years, wow shareholder destruction. Sadly let’s just hope the pound falls faster than Centamin
There are quite a few "traps" and "taps" around. Another below
"Researcher and writer Dr. Ben Abelow, a scholar who lobbied Congress on nuclear arms policy, joins Useful Idiots to explain, as his new book argues, how the west brought war to Ukraine. “The goal of the US,” Abelow says, “is not to save Ukrainians but to degrade Russia’s military until they won’t be able to fight in the future. And while some say stopping Russia is a humanitarian goal, the way one would degrade Russia’s military is to keep an extended war going and fight to the last Ukrainian.”
Abelow analyzes the history of this cold war, the aggression by each side, and the hypocrisy of the argument that Ukraine has a sacrosanct right to join NATO.
“The right to join NATO is the right to place a western military arsenal on Russia’s border. If Russia made a military alliance with Canada or Mexico, US leaders would not be talking about their right to do so.”
And on this week’s news of Putin announcing military escalation and giving a thinly-veiled threat of nuclear war, Dr. Abelow warns:
“I hope it’s taken seriously.”
https://medium.com/@benjamin.abelow/western-policies-caused-the-ukraine-crisis-and-now-risk-nuclear-war-1e402a67f44e
Do your own research and draw your own conclusions. I guess only a few really knows, but propaganda and BS rules the waves these days, and shapes and distrots the markets.
The ODD thing is the momentary defleciton down in gold does not imply that CEY is in fact worth a lot less, unless the sale is made on the day.
best
the gnome
Not necessarily - both the ftse 100 and 250 driven lower by the budget - CEY's a 250 stock so it's taken a hit along with the rest imo. Gold now below 1650 might have summat to do with it too tho
3bear, the pound has fallen so the UK budget should be a tailwind. It went flat on the initial fall and has now resumed. We now have to wait for a confirmed bottom.
Have been pleased and surprised at how well the SP has been holding up with GP sub 1700. Adverse reaction now due to UK budget I think? Hoping for good news and a decent uplift on Oct 20.
Will Centamin rally back up if gold moves up to 1680 this afternoon? It might, but we know the top end is lower than 89.5p. It may also stay flat, and we see gold retrace to where it has been this morning.
I had a feeling that was going to be the play. 90p was too good to be true with gold at 1680.
Yes too true.
Thanks Golgnome very true words.
Consumer confidence . Statistics are the important Stats, IE what the majority of the voters think-
Hopefully when the pain gets to much ,peoples apathy will disappear.
European stock exchanges traded mostly flat in the premarket session on Friday as market participants awaited preliminary eurozone manufacturing data, along with the United Kingdom and Germany revealing the sector's rate, set for release later today.
Earlier, the data on the United Kingdom's consumer confidence showed the rate plunged to its lowest level since records started in the mid-1970s.
Frankfurt's DAX and London's FTSE 100 were flat at 6:50 am CET. Meanwhile, the CAC 40 rose by 0.06% at the same time.
The euro dropped 0.13% against the dollar, selling at $0.98251 at 7:12 am CET. A minute later, the pound sterling lost 0.19% against the American currency, to change hands for $1.12345.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AB
Happy Friday y’al.
Enjoy your weekend.
In a flurry of central-bank meetings from Norway to South Africa, many raised rates by larger-than-expected margins in a day that analysts at ING billed as “Super Thursday.”
One of many to come, and where this ends no one knows
Many central-bank officials struggling with a crisis of public confidence (never had much in the first place?) after initially arguing that inflationary rises would be temporary, are now racing to raise interest rates to catch up with soaring prices, but not so fast that they trigger unnecessary economic pain...Hmmm ...
Until this week, officials had projected what has been dubbed “immaculate disinflation”: Inflation, now running above 8%, would fall sharply to around 2%, with virtually no increase in unemployment. And on the 7th day the officials rested LOL
It is unprecedented for the Fed to predict so steep a rise in unemployment “before a recession has already begun,” Derek Tang of LH Meyer/Monetary Policy Analytics, a financial-research firm, wrote on Twitter. “They are trying to tell us there will be a hard landing; there is no other way.”
So how, then, does inflation fall to 3.1% (excluding food and energy) in a year, as Fed officials project? They implicitly assume much of it will happen painlessly as supply-chain disruptions ease and rising labor-force participation reduces wage demands.
Still waiting for the productivity word. Do they know what happens when wages go up, and productivity does not? Have they done a lot of international travel, like me. I am still trying to find out where my bags are, and I have been on the road for 10 days now. Getting a bit on the nose. Wonder how the poor people are going shipping around bucket loads of goods. Have any of the Fed and central banks ever run a business or worked in the real world. Think: margins go down, companies run kean, and run very exposed to uncertainties and shocks which we have in abundance!
The central bankers live in a rarefied world, quite divorced from the real world. a world of PhD economists with various theories and wonderfill financial models, that neglect human behaviour and other unpleasantries.
Going to be some tough times, and we do not have the leadership, nor the well engineered financial systems to cope is my cynical take.
good luck, and go gold ...
the gnome
What happens afterwards is not that promising imop. However, we await to see confirmations where this is going.
Stock markets in Europe fell in premarket trade on Thursday after the United States Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis-point interest rate hike. The bank's Chair Jerome Powell warned that a "soft landing will be challenging," acknowledging that the Fed cannot predict the extent of a possible recession. Meanwhile, Isabel Schnabel of the European Central Bank stated that a recession in Germany may be inevitable.
The FTSE 100 lost 0.25% at 8:00 am CET, while the DAX dropped 1.31% and the CAC 40 declined by 1.24%.
The euro traded 0.11% lower compared to the dollar, going for 0.98254 at 7:58 am CET. The pound was down 0.26% against the dollar and sold for 1.12405.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / DJ
World Bank Report: Alarming to say the least, and thats the positive side! If you have not read it, I suggest you do so. There are some unsual things happening in synch, and the Central Banks are reacting to advice from the World Bank, and that advice, tempered with positive language, is alarming.
"Central banks around the world have been raising interest rates this year with a degree of synchronicity not seen over the past five decades—a trend that is likely to continue well into next year, according to the report. Yet the currently expected trajectory of interest-rate increases and other policy actions may not be sufficient to bring global inflation back down to levels seen before the pandemic. Investors expect central banks to raise global monetary-policy rates to almost 4 percent through 2023—an increase of more than 2 percentage points over their 2021 average.
Unless supply disruptions and labor-market pressures subside, those interest-rate increases could leave the global core inflation rate (excluding energy) at about 5 percent in 2023—nearly double the five-year average before the pandemic, the study finds. "
It goes on to suggest developing countries are going to do it very tough, and so on....
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/09/15/risk-of-global-recession-in-2023-rises-amid-simultaneous-rate-hikes
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/38019/Global-Recession.pdf
June 07, 2022—Compounding the damage from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has magnified the slowdown in the global economy, which is entering what could become a protracted period of feeble growth and elevated inflation, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report. This raises the risk of stagflation, with potentially harmful consequences for middle- and low-income economies alike.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/06/07/stagflation-risk-rises-amid-sharp-slowdown-in-growth-energy-markets
Bunker down all....trouble is coming, ...fast
best
the gnome
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday downgraded its economic outlook for the US and warned of consistently high inflation and a worsening job market as raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage point for a third straight time.Fed chairman Jerome Powell said policymakers were “strongly committed” to curbing inflation as they pushed the benchmark interest rate to a target range of 3 per cent to 3.25 per cent, their highest point since 2008 and up from near zero at the start of this year.FULL SPEED AHEAD, THEN SLAM THE BRAKES ON. IF YOU DROVE YOUR CAR LIKE THIS YOU WOULD BE ARRESTED?Despite all of the endless waffle about jobs, we now see worsening job markets. I cant pick up the discussion about productivity. Like wise, the discussion about the marveloous industries that lead no where and waste peoples times.The Fed slashed its growth forecast to 0.2 per cent this year from a June projection of 1.7 per cent. The central bank next year expects a weak rebound to 1.2 per cent, again lower than its June forecast of 1.7 per cent. For 2024, it forecasts growth of 1.7 per cent, down from an earlier estimate of 1.9 per cent.Inflation peaked at 9.1 per cent in June, as measured by the 12-month change in the US consumer price index. But it has failed to come down as quickly as Fed officials had hoped (dont like to use the word predicted, as this is something that has been abused before??) . In August, it was still 8.3 per cent.The Fed action is taking place against the backdrop of tightening by other central banks to confront price pressures which have spiked around the globe. Collectively, about 90 (surprised as they all follow the leader?!) have raised interest rates this year, and half of them have hiked by at least 75 basis points in one shot.We have Putin not threatening to employ nuclear, and mobilises 300k reservists, and a bleak winter in Europe with many businesses either shutting or running sub-optimally due to energy costs.Throw in "we will start a war if anything happens to Taiwan" and we have some of the most ridiculous positions being taken...Hard not to see some dire times ahead.Bunker down allbest the gnome
at the 19 minute mark of the video presentation Mr Horgan relates how the EMRA's head honcho made a surprise visit to the ongoing royalty negotiation table last week in Cairo
El Molla said he's going to tell Sisi to expect the process to be all wrapped up by December
Finally, an ultimatum.
https://www.goldforum.live/DGG/Centamin-plc-8ce7be044ec79e45b1aa3ac4
nothing else new or of of note was said during the presentation so you can skip to the end
Thnks once again Razors for your updates.
With so much debt backed by foreign goverments ,one wonders why there is such enthusiam ,if China were to pull the plug on US bonds ,big trouble.
USA s Gold reserves are very questionable, they cannot allow an audit, I wonder why.
Also their problem is they are very insular.
The exporters there have an enormous problem selling into a foreign market with its currency so overvalued. And of course their Debt levels,with higher interest rates impossible to lower.Their solution print more dollars.
Makes no sense.
Overall Goldgnome they are in a huge bubble ,which one day will burst.
Dollar soars on Fed rate decision
The US dollar surged on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy move. The American central bank revealed that it has opted for the expected 75 basis point interest rate hike, as it continues to stay committed to fighting the raging inflation.
The euro plummeted 1.40% against the American currency, reaching a fresh 20-year low, changing hands for 0.98390 at 2:15 pm ET.
The British pound plunged 1.05% compared to the dollar, going for 1.12631 at the same time. The greenback rose 0.47% against the Japanese yen, trading at 144.38700 at 2:16 pm ET.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AY
America has a national security problem, and ... a few others. Its health industry is a mess, 17% of GDP spent on health to deliver a health system that is ranked below Mexico and alike. Singapore spends 4% of GDP and delivers superior health outcmes that even attract such persons as Robert Magabe,,,and so on....LOL
The biggest threat to the USA is right at home: the Pentagon’s stranglehold on our national budget, (been going on for a few decades now!) alongside the woefully inadequate investments in addressing urgent, nonmilitary problems like climate change, pandemics, and racial and economic injustice...and we wont mention a health care system which does not work well....
Nowhere are these misplaced priorities more evident than in Congress, where the House and Senate routinely add tens of billions of dollars to the Pentagon budget beyond what the department even asks for (!!!???), in order to shovel funds to weapons contractors based in their states and districts. This year Congress is poised to push the budget to at least $850 billion. This is far higher than spending at the peak of the Korean or Vietnam Wars or the height of the Cold War, and there is no doubt more to come, as the Ukraine needs more weapons, more security systems, more training and so on and so forth. Gimme a break. Who starts what war and why and how benefits...and unfrotunately...who loses.
This all contributes to the strength of the US$...and who benefits? How? LOL
best
the Gnome