Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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Opened a hedged short against on-going long position just under 90p. Keeping a lot for divi and whatever comes next when Powell crashes the economy.
Hope day traders were watching and managed to exit...
Signing off now- have a good bank hol (UK) all.
Nothing new, but overall perspective initially appears hawkish alas
From Jackson Hole...
Thanks for that, Tibbs. Yes I was in at £2.30 and long before that - maybe 7 0r 10p? A stockbroker at a party told me about CEY - they had lots of gold but couldn't get it out of Egypt. I took a punt and have got more heavily involved over the years. What you might call a rollercoaster ride...
Hi Dasut,
Thank you for a your very informative,but easy to understand explanation of the complex operations that are taking place to rectify the situation at Sukari
Kind Regards
Tibbs
Hi Casparoni,
I'm sure that you will understand that considering all that we long term holders experienced together that any decision to get out is not to be taken lightly as one likes to hope that this time will be different!
You may recall when the share price dropped from £2.30ish to £1.70ish after the initial RNS announced the problems with the open pit wall,.
At that point I considered getting out, but then and in hindsight I mistakenly thought that Martin Horgan would make a statement about the remedial actions being taken and this would stabilise the share price, wrong again, then it dropped to £1.30 as it became even more apparent just how bad the situation was with no possibility of any quick fix and to make the open pit safe and fit for purpose was gong to be a lengthy very involved job, as we know the share price has since declined and remained at its present penny share level.
So here we are in the "Last Stop Saloon" and having sunk to this level the share price hopefully wont drop much more , so I feel its worth taking a chance that before too long the company will make some substantiated announcement that the turnaround is finally under way!
So I remain invested, but if that changes then I will of course let you know.
Kind Regards
Tibbs
Spoonington, "Non sustaining Capex particularly the waste contract".
Feel the Capex expenditure on Solar Farm is money well spent, Likewise the upgrading equipment and reverting to owner mining underground should be a profitable venture and money well spent.
Personally believe light weight bodies geared to the weight of the material being hauled is a good albeit risky venture that I hope works out over the long term but I am sure it will need tweaking to get the balance of lightweight and wear material sorted out.
Capex related to coupling up to the National Grid will I am sure be beneficial and won't require difficult maths to determine the return on investment, when compared with running a diesel generation facility, this type of study is not new and has happened in many countries around the world.
The waste contract I do hope won't need to be continued after it is due to end mid next year as I have said previously this is a necessary evil and by way of explanation.
The hole in the ground is basically not large enough and if left any longer enlarging the hole would have proved unviable. Apologies in advance for those mining engineers or miners reading this forum but imagine digging a hole in the ground 20 foot in diameter and 10 foot deep and once dug realising it needed to be 22 foot in diameter. Now how do you take out the extra two foot without a considerable amount of material ending up in the bottom of the hole.
However if you realise that the hole needs to be 2 foot wider when you have only dug 4 foot then the problem is somewhat easier to overcome.
Obviously this is very basic and Centamin's issues are way more complicated but the need to remedy the driving into a blind alley was paramount. As I have also said the proof in the decision to blitz the waste and expand the pit will only become clear once the contract ends and hopefully there are numerous ore bearing faces that can be worked and not reliant on working one and moving on to the next, therefore far more flexible and hopefully more productive.
I agree however Spoonington that this Capex is not sustainable and the ratio between working in waste and ore has to drop.
The good news is once the waste has been moved it won't need to be moved again, although there will always be the need to move different waste but this has to be at a lower ratio.
All miners are suffering form the same causes... AISC increasing, to state the obvious
Tibbs, why on earth do you think that every post on this forum must in some way revolve around you?
Why do you feel that every post must be responded to with a most often inane comment from you?
Have you in your apparent ever declining state of arrogance & hubris come to the misguided conclusion that the rest of the participants in this forum somehow require your imprimatur in order to validate or negate their own opinions?
Sir, I am all for active participation in any debate, but you do not seek participation you seek domination which is bad enough in itself but when it comes with no perceivable constructive input whatsoever it becomes tiresome and irritating.
In my opinion you are an ideologue, alongside the ranks of other ideologues such as Hitler, Stalin, McCarthy, Mao, Pol Pot, etc., there maybe some validity to the initial basis that gives rise to your opinions but your passionate zealotry has blinded you to the existence of any alternate viewpoints thus creating a state in your own mind where your opinions are not simply opinions but irrefutable truths that may not be debated.
Fortunately for us all you do not have the capacity to influence the lives of others in the way the other ideologues I have mentioned did, however, the intent of your actions is just as evil albeit insignificant. Accordingly I find said actions to be offensive and of ill intent.
There is my quick critique of your posts, as you seem to believe it necessary to provide yours to every other poster I thought you might appreciate the same scrutiny of your own :)
Dear Mr Tibbs, I've been looking to you for encouragement all these years (I know: do your own etc) but you finally seem to have lost faith. But are you staying in?
Should know in the next 3 hours if we have a new down channel or not on the half hourly. If we have then expect a return to the 80's on SP.
The company doesn't take us retail shareholders seriously!
For instance one of my questions to Centamin IR and FTI
Re Egypt's lack of funds to import fuel is only getting worse – a serious consideration for Centamin contemplating connection to Egypt's power grid ?
https://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2023/07/27/egypts-prime-minister-announces-measures-to-address-power-cuts/
12th Aug 2023
Dear ****
As a long term holder of a not inconsiderable number of Centamin shares and having told in the past on a telephone call by Martin Horgan that all shareholders are valued by the company I can only assume that I no longer fall into that category as my emails over the past months seem to have been disregarded .
I appreciate that this may be due to you having a very demanding work schedule and indeed other shareholders to deal with, however in the past I would often approach “Buchanan” who were usually able to answer on Centamin’s behalf , however I feel certainly since Centamin has appointed FTI as its new PR company that this support to shareholders is somewhat lacking to say the least.
However whatever the present company policy is on communication with shareholders I feel that the feasibility of linking Centamin up to the Egyptian national power grid needs some clarification to be sure that the company is able to deliver the hoped for efficiencies and savings.
Yours Sincerely
My Details
Retail Share Holder
Reply sameme day from FTI
Hi ******
It has indeed been a busy period particularly in the run up to and following the interim results.
With the results RNS, shareholders are in possession of the latest material information and therefore we did not retrospectively respond to all enquiries.
Thank you for the below, obviously such factors will be taken into consideration as part of the ongoing grid power connection study which we expect to conclude in H2. Following any grid connection, Centamin will still have the option of reverting to its current power source alongside power generated by its solar plant.
More generally, the company is conscious of its regulatory obligations to disclose material information to shareholders via the correct channels. We do value all input from shareholders but often it will be more appropriate to respond to such issues / concerns / suggestions through formal RNS announcements than via email.
Regards
Name ***
FTI Consulting
Is it any wonder that Cowichan gets frustrated!
Hi Spoonigton,
Thank you for giving us the benefit of your professional experience on this issue, certainly the appointment of FTI seems to be all part of the BOD and managements strategy of giving the impression a new era of openness with share holders but is in reality quite the opposite.
The reality now is slick presentations promising much, but so far delivering shareholders far less at greater cost, whilst entering into huge debt agreements and hedging future gold production whilst eroding the company cash pile
I see your point about the unsustainable CAPEX, to be fair Dasut also made reference to this on the inception of the Capital waste clearance contract, but now you have further confirmed the detrimental impact this is having on the share price,profits and indeed dividends!
Share holders who are less experienced in all the various aspects of mining, including corporate accountancy may not always know the best places to look in the quarterly reports, or the most appropriate/pertinent questions to ask and this is why in many respects its easy for the company to hide the most important or details by distracting the majority of trusting shareholders with slick presentations promising more sometime in the future in order to keep them on the hook whilst the management fill their boots with bonuses for just doing what they are already paid handsomely for anyway!
You are right I have been critical of Andrew Pardey and the previous management, also I agree that they did reward share holders more than this new management, although that said we are paying for it now, but even allowing for the waste clearance the new managements strategy so far has meant that we are are paying what seems to be excessive to say the least and over and above what may be regarded as justifiable.
When Martin Horgan took over I had great hopes,but 3 years in feel that the new management aren't delivering as much as they promised and even worse are not being open or entirely honest with share holders!
Tibbs
Thank you for the information Cowichan,
This seems like yet another job for the "Old Toro Boys", rather like the appointment of FTI Consultancy !
European stock indexes traded mixed premarket on Friday with new German data reports in focus. The second report on the country's growth for the second quarter confirmed the preliminary figures released last month. Meanwhile, the business climate report for Germany is forecast to show a decline in August. ECB President Christine Lagarde will also speak at the Jackson Hole symposium later in the day.
The DAX dropped 0.21% at 8:00 am CET, the FTSE 100 added 0.24% the Euro Stoxx 50 was flat, and the CAC 40 fell by 0.09% a minute later.
The euro traded 0.20% lower compared to the dollar, selling for 1.07888 at 8:02 am CET. The pound was down by 0.23% against the dollar and went for 1.25716 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / DJ
You get better by showing up consistently! 🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠
Happy Friday y’al
Enjoy your weekend.
Agree Spoony- factor on waste is key contributor, along with industry ones.
Thanks Razor- useful in further demonstrating industy context for SP here. Mostly mirrors what I've been saying that CEY recent performance is simply broadly mirroring.
Spoonington, I think what you write is spot on in every respect including about Cowichan, your knowledge and clear explanations are much appreciated. I quite agree about the managements. Also I used to bang on about rising AISC when others were obsessed by ounces. However it is now actually falling in real terms and as you say is more like others as they have risen, so no longer the problem. It is a shame there is so much less for dividends that under Pardy with such high capex and less of remaining profit paid out. Plus the weird $6m just in this half on the weird $1900 hedge, another sizeable chunk of dividend gone. He was not as bad as some make out and Horgan not as good. Our dividend just coming is sadly lower
Berenberg: BHP between a rock and a hard place
BHP (BHP) is between ‘a rock and a hard place’ of inflationary costs and the need to invest more capital, says Berenberg.
Analyst Richard Hatch retained his ‘hold’ recommendation and reduced the target price from £24 to £22 on the Citywire Elite Company, which fell 1.6%, or 36.5p, to £21.94 on Thursday.
First-half results ‘missed market expectations due to a lower dividend’ as a result of cost pressure and weaker prices and delivered disappointing cost and capex guidance, explained Hatch.
He said it is ‘not a major surprise that capex will be elevated over the coming years.’
‘This seems to be a constant negative theme in the sector – the last time that we saw this was following Covid when decarbonisation spend started to creep in and surprise the market negatively, and the catch-up capex started to work its way back following a period of under-investment due to weak prices from 2013-16,’ said Hatch.
He argued that mining was a cyclical sector and ‘we are now going through a period where costs are elevated due to inflation and higher energy input costs, while capex is rising because of the need to build more supply for longer-term demand growth, while prices are weak because the demand growth is not yet pulling through and we are relying on an underperforming China to drive demand and this does not yet seem to be forthcoming’.
Unfortunately for shareholders, Hatch said ‘this will likely keep a lid on the shares’.
I think we are all getting distracted from the real problem CEY has that is causing the atrocious share price performance.
AISC is not a big issue, it is in line with what the entire gold industry is experiencing (the link Gnome provided before provides a concise analysis of this issue).
The key issue is non-sustaining capex & in particular the waste stripping program.
The recent NSC reported is 2021 FY $132M, 2022 FY $115M & 2023 HY $56M, that is over $300M or in excess of 20% of CEY’s market cap in 2.5 years - this cannot continue!
The reason the market is giving our share price a thumping is not the NSC itself but the lack of explanation from management as to why they are making these expenditures and what benefits the expenditures will create for shareholders in the future - in the absence of explanation for the spending of over 20% of the entire value of a company simple prudence requires one to question whether the current management has a clue what they are doing.
At least the much maligned precious management dug gold out of the ground, paid hefty dividends & built up cash reserves that the current team are rapidly eroding - the level of animosity towards previous management is quite perplexing.
Until the current management explain in detail why they are spending the money or show the reasons for the expenditure in the form of significantly improving production metrics the share price will continue to languish.
Cowichan, I have a lot of respect for you & appreciate your efforts in holding CEY management to account. However, please do me a favour & hammer them on the capex issue rather than getting stuck on minor accounting issues - you made a mistake in your interpretation of the financial report, nothing wrong with making mistakes especially if you learn from them - move on and continue to fight for us retail shareholders in your most effective & amusing style. I for one appreciate what you do :)
That’s my two bobs worth, I am now going to make a big pot of beef burgundy and enjoy a special dinner with my doggie (the true Lady Spoonington Woofalot)!
Cheers
Spoon
Spoonington,
Thanks for confirming.
Best wishes,
Prof
Well said Siko, I share the sent5iment.
There seemed to be a higher level of comradery and tolerance for others.
I think you summed it up quite clearly Prof, just normal commercial operations on normal commercial terms :)
There was no RNS for this new Centamin Director appointment. It was done January 1, 2023
Total number of appointments 5
Company Name: CENTAMIN EGYPT INVESTMENTS 1 LIMITED (13472583)
CENTAMIN EGYPT INVESTMENTS 3 LIMITED (13474170)
CENTAMIN GROUP UK SERVICES LIMITED (12855548)
CENTAMIN EGYPT INVESTMENTS 2 LIMITED (13474165)
Received for filing in Electronic Format on the: 19/01/2023 XBVJ9DSI
Date of Appointment: 01/01/2023
Name: MR FRANCOIS JEAN DU PLESSIS
The company confirms that the person named has consented to act as a director.
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/officers/jkk2w0nlIo5Ynpr1k01V0IS0mVg/appointments
---------------------------------------->>>>
Employment History
Independent Consultant
Jan 2020 - Present · 3 yrs 8
Since the start of 2020 Francois acts as an independent legal consultant specialised in rendering in-house legal and transaction management support services in the mining sector, with particular focus recently in emerging markets, Egyptian and Francophone African mining projects. Francois has a varied client base ranging from FTSE 250 listed mining companies to privately held investment vehicles and funds with interests in exploration, development and/or operating mining projects.
Chief Legal Counsel -Toro Gold Limited
Nov 2018 - Jan 2020 · 1 yr 3 mos
London, United Kingdom
Between 2009 and 2019, Toro Gold Limited was a privately held gold production, development and exploration holding company with a West African investment portfolio. Its flagship asset was the Mako Gold Project in Eastern Senegal that commenced gold production in January 2018. In addition, the Toro Gold group held a 2000 square kms exploration portfolio over the highly prospective Birminian terranes of the Ivory Coast, Guinea and Senegal. Toro Gold was acquired by Resolute Mining in July 2019 following which Francois resigned as Toro Gold's in-house counsel to return to freelance consulting.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/fran%C3%A7ois-du-plessis-404b8a135/
------------------------------------->>>>
Anyone still think Mr Horgan is upfront and forthcoming with all his actions?