The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Thanks Mr T
Richard Schodde has made his business around tracking discoveries for 40+ years. He is a keynote speaker at all of the major global exploration conferences (PDAC, New Generation Gold, Diggers and Dealers etc), consultant and govt advisor on all continents. Very well connected, very committed. I think Richard also subscribes to SandP Mining Intelligence, which we set up some decade or 2 ago.
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/metals-mining
Kees can contact him at the below link
https://minexconsulting.com/contact-us/
He will learn a few things without doubt
best
the gnome
In 2000, gold was trading at around $290 an ounce, roughly a 700% gain in slightly under 30 years from 1970....
the monetary base had grown from about $75 billion to over $600 billion in the same time frame, roughly a 700% gain as well.....
since the financial crisis in 2008, monetary expansion has taken off. By 2020, both the monetary base and gold's price were up by around 4,400% from their levels in 1970.
....However, gold's price is lagging monetary expansion now lagging...The monetary base is at approximately $6 trillion now, up by roughly 8,000% from 1970. Yet, gold's price is only up about 4,800%, as the yellow metal has not kept up with rapid money printing in recent years.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m2
This lag could prove transitory, and gold needs to appreciate by roughly 67% to catch up to the monetary base advances. A 67% increase relative to current prices would put gold at about $3,000 an ounce.
https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-prices?gclid=CjwKCAjw8cCGBhB6EiwAgORey85R4gHO9vvXfPhaKMzKNxoj8Ok1H8i07BHdR4T3qzgR2jI3tBpfnhoChRoQAvD_BwE
Also, there is no guarantee that the monetary base will stop growing or will decrease. Provided all the variables like massive debt, U.S. trade imbalances, inflation, low productivity and low-interest rates, the monetary base will likely expand from here...
So bet 1. Gold to $2k p ozs in 6 months
and bet 2? Gold to $3k+ Ozs 12-18 months
good luck to us all.
best
the gnome
Shares on major European stock markets moved higher during the premarket session on Tuesday, shrugging off the hawkish tone set by the Federal Reserve's latest policy announcement last week.
Asian markets traded higher as well late in the session, with the Japanese benchmark Nikkei index surging over 3% following a volatile session on Monday. With little on the economic calendar, traders continued to monitor developments surrounding the coronavirus pandemic.
The DAX rose 0.29% at 8:00 am CET. At the same time, the CAC 40 climbed 0.12%, while the FTSE 100 added 0.38%.
Breaking the News / JC
Jefferies predicts golden Centamin re-rating
Gold miner Centamin (CEY) is offering exposure to a ‘world-class’ asset and sector-leading dividends, according to Jefferies.
Analyst Alan Spence retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 170p on the stock, which was down 2.45%, or 3.05p, at 121.45p yesterday.
Spence upgraded his 2021 earnings estimates by 10% and increased production guidance by 2% while lowering cash costs by 6% and trimming his 2022 earnings forecast by 5%.
The miner has set out a multi-year plan to return to producing 500k ounces of gold a year by 2024, which Spence said is the ‘first material shift in strategy since new chief executive Martin Horgan took over in April’.
‘We believe the aim is to create a more stable and predictable (Egyptian) Sukari mine,’ he said.
Spence said the shares ‘offer exposure to a world-class gold asset, sector-leading dividends, and opportunity for operational led re-rating’.
Amazon destroying millions of items of unsold stock in one of its UK warehouses every year, ITV News investigation finds
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-06-21/amazon-destroying-millions-of-items-of-unsold-stock-in-one-of-its-uk-warehouses-every-year-itv-news-investigation-finds
Online giant Amazon is destroying millions of items of unsold stock every year, products that are often new and unused, ITV News can reveal.
Footage gathered by ITV News shows waste on an astonishing level. And this is from just one of 24 fulfilment centres they currently operate in the UK.Undercover filming from inside Amazon's Dunfermline warehouse reveals the sheer scale of the waste: Smart TVs, laptops, drones, hairdryers, top of the range headphones, computer drives, books galore, thousands of sealed face masks – all sorted into boxes marked “destroy”.
Shocking these laptops etc could have been donated o charities and needy schoolchildren !
Tibbs
if so, all the easier to get castrated ;-)
Hi Cowichan
I would say they are taking the pee. - A familiar stance with shareholders.
I posted the following tweet this morning and actually got a 'like' from Centamin. I truly don't know what to make of it...
.@CentaminPlc FYI this is what a transparent timetable looks like to develop a mine in Cote D'Ivoire c/o @TiettoMinerals
Also, #Centamin must disclose its true resources in Burkina Faso including 600k meters drilling in Napelepera & Wadaradoo $AGAC
@DavePelham123
@**********
https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1407012825382350853
----------------------->>
Considering it's far from the first time I've made this point on Twitter
1) Are they acknowledging a maiden resource must be disclosed at Wadaradoo and Napelepera in Burkina Faso ?
2) Are they acknowledging they must do a better job at time framing the Doropo project ?
3) Are they simply playing around?
Hi Mr Gnome,
I asked Kees for any opinions he may have on this -
I always wonder what the exact definition is for the various metrics.?
Without knowing that, you get half the picture.
A lot of the conclusions depend on their method and basis to get numbers for “unreported discoveries”. Being unreported (I doubt many companies do not report this, even Major Producers) how the hell did they get to their numbers?
Kees Dekker
CEY looks healthy
Here's hoping-I did not think we would be drifting down again and here's hoping we can soon start a proper upward trend soon. A prior top up at £118 ish does not look so hot recently
However, if we ever did get back into the 90's I would be digging deep to find some more lose change-as long as there is gold still there and organization/operational improvements contuining hopefully 2023 will be very good
Cheers to all
I have joined you with a top up Mike at 1.054
After watching over the last few weeks I believe there should be easy money to be made, guess only time will tell!!
First of all very sad to hear about the fatalities with HOC staff puts things into perspective...I had a small top up few K with CEY at £1.06 and I had thought about HOC but not up to date on the variables going on there
Interesting about the Irish miners article Mr Tibbs having a strong interest..and of course we are back to rain in London.
Got to say I had laugh at Matt Han**** on breakfast TV this morning -he is like teflon tom
Hi Mr Tibbles
I've never seen the film.
Mining is a highly dangerous activity. Bitcoin mining is safer, although not very safe on your wallet, I suspect!
And I am buying...
SOUNDS LIKE A GOOD TIME TO BY TO ME....
Hi Redsparrow,
Thought you would appreciate this, some brave Irishmen who tried to stand up for what was right against the tyranny and greed of their employers!
March 27, 1876, the murder trial Molly Maguire member Edward Kelly began in Pennsylvania.
The last of the Molly Maguires were hanged in the Carbon County Prison in Mauch Chunk, Pennsylvania (known today as Jim Thorpe) on June 21, 1887. Below, we look at the group execution of Molly Maguire members that would go down in history.
It was one of the largest mass execution of any group by the US federal government in history. Between 1877 and 1879, 20 Irishmen known as the Molly Maguires, a labor movement working and organizing in the Pennsylvania coal fields, were executed. Among them was John Kehoe King of the Mollies who was pardoned fully 101 years later.
https://www.irishcentral.com/roots/history/molly-maguires-executed
Hi TornadoTony,
Thank you for the post and hope that you are now back on form after your hospital visit.
Tibbs
Lots of physical gold discounts in India and hardly any in USA and UK. Looks like Asia physical buying getting a good hand which often happens on their bulk buying for the jewellery trade. The jewellers need to buy first, make the physical into products and we get the high gold prices when they change hands in the wedding season for September and October. Gold is behaving in a seasonal way especially as wedding catch ups because of Covid-19 pandemic created backlogs. I would expect the sales to end either this week or next week. Everything else is just noise to keep Bloomberg reporter staff busy.
Shares on major European stock markets sank during premarket trading on Monday as traders across the globe digested the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift revealed last week.
The Federal Open Market Committee might hike rates twice in 2023, earlier than it had previously expected, amid improving economic conditions and higher inflation.
The DAX dropped 0.96% at 8:00 am CET, while the CAC 40 fell 0.91%. Meanwhile, in London, the FTSE 100 was down 0.76%.
Breaking the News / JC
Market down, gold up at the minute
Happy Monday y’al
We are in a MandA frenzy in Oz, and my bet is that for the same raft of reasons (+1) you will see this in the gold mining sector.
The +1, is that there have been very few gold discoveries, so organic growth is and has been off the cards for a decade now.
https://minexconsulting.com/trends-in-gold-exploration-with-a-special-focus-on-quantifying-discovery-performance/
How does a mining company grow, when they have no greenfields exploration success?
The performance so far in the broader industry in 2021 is even eclipsing the golden era of M&A that arrived in the wake of the global financial crisis and peaked in 2011, when $US56.9 billion of deals were announced to this point in the year....been $US64.3 billion ($82.8 billion) of deals announced so far this year, and we ae only half way through.
I expect the gold mining industry to start ocmpeting in the MandA stakes a lot more....
best
the gnome
Hi Mr Tibbles
Unfortunately, Boris Johnson and the Austin Allegro have one thing in common. They are both duds.
So, what of the markets this week? Another week like last week, and I'll be an unhappy bunny. In fact, I may start thinking along these lines:
I wish I loved the Human Race;
I wish I loved its silly face;
I wish I liked the way it walks;
I wish I liked the way it talks;
And when I'm introduced to one,
I wish I thought 'What jolly fun!'
Sir Walter Raleigh (not Victor Meldrew).
Poetry Monday has come early this week.
Best of luck to all.
Hi Redsparrow,
Good news about Former Commons speaker John Bercow has announced he is joining Labour as he launched a scathing attack on Boris Johnson.
Lashing out at the prime minister, he said the Conservatives today are a “reactionary, populist, nationalistic and sometimes even xenophobic” party.
Your brother is is right on all counts, unfortunately although at the time it was Lord Stokes then Michael Edwards whose brief to save British Leland was questionable and in order to cut tooling costs he decided to keep keeping using the huge surplus of post war components on supposedly new generation cars.
Admittedly this had been the norm post war , Austin Healey sports cars had the same basic engine block and even gearbox that was in the Austin 5 ton army lorries, MG'S the Austin and Morris brands were using outdated lever arm suspension and wish bone suspension which would just collapse unless it had been greased up on a regular basis.
Remember the first Range Rovers, now in concourse condition going for 100K, they used Morris Marina switch gear and door handles, although the Rover V8 engine was superb and the car was basically simple, no stupid ECU's or electronics making them true off roaders that were easy to maintain ., more than can be said for today's Joke called Range Rover!
Remember the Austin Allegro , no surprise the Austin Allegro has been voted world's worst car.
They were banned from the Blackwall tunnel as dangerous to tow, because their shells would bend and back windscreens pop out.
The rectangular Quartic steering wheel was branded unsafe by the police and there were quite a few owners who watched their rear wheels fly off and over take them.
That's before you start on the questionable aesthetics.
I n the Harris Mann in his original sketches. It was actually a very handsome car.
The villain of the piece was Lord Stokes, head of British Leyland, who insisted on using seats from the Maxi and trim from the Marina, and spoiling Mann's visionary design.
The Allegro - nicknamed the All-aggro - is the world's worst car, not because it was a bad design by one man, It was ruined by a committee of meddling fools!
I'm sure most people have read this, but I'll put the link in here just in case. It's about the Fed's apparent change of heart!
https://moneyweek.com/economy/us-economy/603423/the-fed-springs-a-surprise-on-investors-are-there-more-to-come
Well, Western governments need to inflate away their debts, so I agree with the author about how far the 'taper tantrum' must run before they change track again.
My eldest sister's husband was a panel beater all his working life, and has helped me buying cars over the years. When I was a student, I saw a Triumph TR7 at a local garage and he came along to view it. The verdict was: 'as rotten as an old pear'. It was a blue one with the roof, not convertible, and I could see all the wheel arches had filler in and underneath was rotten. It was 1986 and the car was probably about 8 years old - I think the insurance for me was about £850.
I eventually bought an Austin Metro when I started work. It was about 18 months old, purchased from a main dealer, and after a week, I went to go to work one morning and there was about 3 inches of water in the passengers footwell. I took it back. They kept it for about 2 weeks, told me it was fixed, and about 2 days later, the footwell was full of water again. My to-ing and fro-ing to the garage happened a couple more times with no success. After a comment from the sales manager to me, which even in those days was extraordinary, I threw the keys at him and said I didn't want the car anymore.
My brother-in-law said that finding water leaks in cars is such a difficult, time consuming process, that they just didn't want to make the effort. So, one cold Sunday morning in January, we were out on my parent's house driveway with the car. He was upside down inside the car and I had a hosepipe which I had to allow the water to trickle from starting at the lowest point on the door/wing. It took ages to find, and the leak point was found to be on the roof edge, hidden by some black trim. The factory sealer had not covered properly and the water just poured in. We put some black sealer on, replaced the trim, and it was fine after that.
I never really liked the car, though, and kept it about 2 years before selling it. I really should have bought either a Mini or an Escort - much more a young person's car in those days. I know a little about car repairing from my brother-in-law. One thing he did say was that finding a really good painter was so difficult. The cars would be repaired really well, only to be almost entirely ruined by painters throwing on a load of paint which looked terrible.
To buy a classic today, I think joining the owners' club is the best thing to do. So much knowledge and willing helpers. I did join the Jensen Owners' Club for a year when in my early 30s. I liked the Jensen Healey but found that they weren't particulary good cars. I also had a young family then, so it was completely out of the question anyway. I was just learning the ropes for later in life.
Hi Mr Bond,
Governments don't want ordinary mortals like us to realise the true rate of inflation, that's why they have departments whose role is to come up methods of measuring inflation based things like a basket of shopping (what's in the basket and from what shop?)
Why the Government prefers the CPI – at least when it comes to pensions 20 March 2012
Public sector pensions will increase more slowly in future after the Appeal Court threw out an attempt to stop them being increased in line with the consumer price index (CPI) rather than the retail price index (RPI).
The CPI typically runs at a lower rate, thanks to the way in which it is calculated. When introducing the switch the Government argued that this was a fairer measure of inflation – as it did not include certain housing-related costs, such as mortgage interest payments or council tax!
These changes don't apply to MP's or the senior Judicery who ruled on the appeal case!