The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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All markets have been affected by that FOMC meeting, but I keep in mind that gold had a directional change last August and another directional change in March this year. I don't think this pullback in the gold price marks a new direction down. I look at the price in sterling; a three waves decline should only give us a maximum Fib 78% around £1220ish per ounce. We are on a 50% decline from our recent peak, so if I'm correct, I hope we get a bounce soon before the final move down. Once the pullback is finished, I hope we'll be racing again. The good thing is that the banks will be short covering, which will keep the price from falling too much. I ask myself the question: should I sell my physical gold now and buy it back cheaper in the future? The answer is no!
For Centamin, it hasn't gone down that much with the fall in gold price (Yamana Gold - oh dear!). The crazy gang's forecast the other week did far more damage. Weaker sterling also helps the Centamin price. We've got used to a penny up and penny down share price movements over the last few month. Centamin is already cheap with a good dividend. It's too late to panic now. Again, it's a good long-term hold. I'm sticking with it.
It's a very dull morning at the moment. It's not open top car weather; more like get the Turtle Wax out and give the paintwork a good polish.
Sadly my crystal ball is and it shows snow cold and down for now, but then…
My tea leaves nor Crystal Ball, are not clear.
Maybe its the weather.
MrBond wouldn’t that be a sweet reward for the long suffering shareholders, for all this waiting around.
Are you expecting it soon?
Perhaps the Chinese would like to change the direction ?
;-)
I miss those days Razor - thanks for the memories!
Remember the weekly shipments from Cairo to Canada
Still going on of course just not publicly reported.
https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/34693/Sukari-mine-exports-404kg-of-Egypt’s-gold-to-Canada
“The non-stop year-round Montreal to Cairo link will also facilitate the expansion of Canadian companies in the robust Egyptian market, enabling them to secure major commercial opportunities in key industry sectors such as mining...
A delegation from Air Canada has met with leaders of Egypt’s business community during the former’s current visit to Cairo.
The meeting witnessed the announcement of Air Canada launching its non-stop year-round service from Montreal, Canada to Cairo, Egypt.
https://dailynewsegypt.com/2021/06/18/air-canada-launches-non-stop-year-round-service-from-montreal-to-cairo/
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This will be helpful for Barrick, B2Gold among others yet TBA...
It would seem Egypt are looking to the East for more investment and training .
No harm in divarication ,if it puts them as hub for possibly trade and Tourism.
- Egypt is in the process of building the largest parliamentary building in the Middle East in its New Administrative Capital.
https://timep.org/commentary/analysis/ndp-to-nfp-rebranding-or-restructuring-parliamentary-life-in-egypt/
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- As part of the country’s efforts to support financial inclusion, Egypt is planning to make the New Administrative Capital the first cashless city in the country, according to the State Information Service.
Minister of Communications and Information Technology Amr Talaat met with the vice chairman and president of strategic growth at Mastercard, Michael Froman, to set out plans for the company’s investment in Egypt in the field of electronic government payments.
Talaat stressed in the meeting on Egypt’s plans to turn into a cashless society and the importance of benefiting from the company’s experiences.
https://www.zdnet.com/article/egypts-building-a-new-capital-inside-the-smart-city-in-the-desert/
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"We need very extensive financing," it quoted Ahmed Zaki Abdeen – a retired general who heads the company building the new city – as saying. "And the state doesn't have money to give me." As a result, around 20% of investment to date has come from overseas.
According to Abdeen, China has contributed up to $4.5bn towards the costs and China State Construction Engineering is also training 10,000 Egyptian construction workers.
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Mr Sisi is not the first Egyptian ruler to move the capital. The pharaohs had Thebes and Memphis, to name just two. Alexandria was the heart of Greco-Roman Egypt. The modern capital dates back to 969ad, when Fatimid conquerors commissioned a walled city to mark their triumph. A millennium later the “city victorious”, as it is known, has become a city tumultuous: a congested sprawl of 23m people.
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2019/01/26/egypt-prepares-to-open-its-grand-new-capital
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Out of reach for most Egyptians
Moving to the New Capital is not a possibility for the vast majority of Egyptians, where a two bedroom flat is listed for $62,000, but the GDP per capita hovers around $3,000. This will anchor the New Capital with Egyptian elites, or those that are less likely to violently revolt and currently form the bulk of the regime's civilian support.
https://en.qantara.de/content/egypts-new-administrative-capital-the-sinister-side-of-sisis-urban-development
I will certainly pass it on to all my family.
Excellent Andrew ,and thank you Mr Tibbles for the link.
2 chucks of 1,819,978 total 3,639,956 shares dumped today. Should see holding RNS who the seller is.
My original post from 2014
The profit share will be what the profit share will be – the joint venture partner, ie the government, sits in the 50% owned subsidiary Sukari Gold Mines.
The management board of this subsidiary has representatives of the government and an equal number from Centamin. All of the investment into the Sukari mine is audited, with Sukari Gold Mines very much being a part of this process. Similarly, all gold sales go through Sukari Gold Mines, where the operating surplus will be divided 50/50 between the government and Centamin, once the original capital has been repaid back to Centamin and its shareholders. The 3% royalty has been paid to the Egyptian Treasury ever since production started (this also goes through SGM).
With the above in mind, there is no issue with regards to the money that has been ploughed into Sukari, particularly the costs of Stage 4 (c.$350m) – this needs to be recouped before any of this operating surplus can be shared.
This is not due to kick in until later this year, or possibly in Q1/Q2 next year. It is all a function of the ramp up in production and the gold price.
There is no dispute between Centamin, the Egyptian government and/or EMRA, nor the 50/50 Sukari Gold Mines subsidiary.
What you are getting is probably a series of people mouthing off that they want profit share now. This is a political game more than anything, as the deal is the deal (in fact Centamin have advanced the country a few million dollars as a demonstration of their faith in this deal – this will also be recouped out of future operating surpluses due to the government).
What is wonderful is that very few people seem to understand what this 50/50 deal is – it is effectively a 50% tax on free cash flow. In fact the 50% will not kick in until 2016, as in 2015 this will be 45%.
To counter this there is no VAT, no corporation tax, no other taxes to pay all beyond the above and the royalty, which on a blended rate compares reasonably well with other 1st world mining jurisdictions (like the US, Australia, Northern Europe etc).
Tibbs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eI8goRNPHk
In this week’s episode, Andrew Maguire is joined again by Craig Hemke, founder of the TF MetalsReport, a gold and silver blog respected across the precious metals industry.
The two industry allies compare notes on the insiders’ latest silver containment strategy and exchange predictions on silver’s trajectory if the $30 per ounce level is finally broken.
Andrew Maguire traces the impact of the Wall Street Silver movement through every level of the industry, and catches his old friend off guard with a special video release from the Live from the Vault team.
Many thanks
Got mine.
Indeed, Mr Tibbles, you are thinking along the same lines as Blackrock who are shifting out of government bonds into real estate. It's just another example of the move from public to private assets. Even our Boris is beginning to get a taste of the people's lack of confidence in government. We're dosed to the eyeballs with experimental vaccine and now we want our freedom back! It's only the start of things. The 'private bubble' won't even burst until the early part of the next decade.
There's nothing like a bit of 'shock and awe', or should that be 'Blitzkreig?', to frighten the poor underlings. I suspect the shorters are scrambling out of positions while the rest of us are too stunned to even think straight. However, I'm glad to see one poster has suddenly become 'brave' overnight.
Life's a bowl of cherries - if you're a blackbird!
Hi Mr Gnome,
I haven't read the information you kindly gave links to in detail yet, so forgive me if I have misunderstood these corporate bonds so there are obligation or penalties due if selling corporate bonds during the 10 year term?
So they are really another form of managed investment funds in a number or range of companies (which may change over time) for which those managing the funds most probably charge handsome management fee's and in return they guarantee an income at the agreed rate on profits to the investor?
Seems a nice little earner for the those managing and trading the bonds with pretty mediocre returns in comparison , albeit guaranteed to the investor?
Not that no one didn’t like it. Probably the fact it wasn’t factual info,(ex. Cey in trouble if) good to see you have reflected on your numptiness and bought.
Hi Mr Gnome, Thank you for the explanation and links, in my view with inflation and the poor rate of return I can see no point in tying up money for 10 years in UK government bond's NS&I.
Some hopeful election results
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/boris-johnson-warned-dozens-of-conservative-seats-will-fall-after-stunning-lib-dem-by-election-win/ar-AALaJUa?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531
Adrian77,
Yesterday you thought Gold was going to $1700 and CEY to 80p.
Today you buy £20ks worth at 106p + ?
No I cannot manipulate the supply and demand of centamins shares. Apologies for being Frank, you clearly didn't like it.
I've just took £20ks worth, do you have an email address I can screen shot too?
Reserved and invested back into this
Anyone received it yet? Payment should have been on the 15th?