Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
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The Mayhem Watch is on. Closing arguments in the trial of “Kenosha Shooter” Kyle Rittenhouse are expected Monday, and after weeks of hype, the country is primed to explode again. Wisconsin governor Tony Evers announced 500 National Guard troops will be on hand for potential post-verdict “unrest,” which seems almost guaranteed, no matter the result....and so on and so forth....
Just completed reading the "Perversion of Justice", by an investigative reporter who exposed the Epstein network. Its an appalling expose of the crass desires of a subset of the political and business elite in the USA, and one would suspect elsewhere.
https://www.amazon.com/Perversion-Justice-Jeffrey-Epstein-Story/dp/006300058X
It suggests to me all is in very bad shape in the US, which will lead to greater uncertainty. The country has the potential to breakdown into serious civil and social unrest, all fanned by the social media and the social influencers. The "Perversion" is such a distressing read, as if being poor and from a broken family is not enough. You have the wolves bearing down on your body 24/7, and a suspect justice system
I can see a fair amount of fragility and uncertainty in financial markets, which will nont lead to a strong economic revcovery.
Like to be wrong on this. The supply side of good/parts is tenuous, not only for the mining industry.
good luck those in the US.
As posted previously the MandA hunger is only increasing in the gold industry. Some notes from Rick Rule
Gold miners now seem to be hungry for growth, looking to use their growing bank balances to fund capital investments, mergers and acquisitions.
“I think Australia is particularly ripe for mergers and acquisitions in two senses,” Rule says.
“One, the acquisition of non-Australian companies by Australian companies and increasingly — if the bigger and better Australian companies don’t begin to sell at premiums — the takeover of those companies by foreigners.
“And of course, the lateral and strategic mergers within the Australian Exchange. I think the next 18 months is going to surprise everyone positively with mergers and acquisitions.
“In the near term that benefits the acquiree, but in the long term if it is structured well, it will benefit the acquiror.”
Who are takeover targets in Australia?
Rule has a list of M&A targets he would prefer to keep proprietary, for obvious reasons.
But he does say to look for companies that are simply too cheap.
“Companies where the net present value of their cash flow, particularly where they have long life reserves, are substantially cheaper than their enterprise value,” he says.
“By my way of thinking, the plus $2bn to $10bn Australian gold mining industry – that market cap range – is universally too cheap.
“At current gold prices – not higher gold prices – these companies are all selling at prices that are as cheap as I have ever seen them in my career.
“I also believe that the gold price will go up, so I am attracted to both the numerator and denominator in that equation.”
From talking to industry execs worldwide, Rule knows that they are beginning to work up the courage to do M&A again.
The industry got pretty discouraged from doing that, for very good reason, in the decade 2000-2010, where so many aggressive acquisitions turned out to be disastrous for shareholders.
“But there is a circumstance now where the lack of investment, particularly in precious metals mining, for the last few years has meant that the surviving companies have to acquire, or they begin to shrink,” Rule says.
“They cannot explore and develop fast enough to maintain their current production. And the assets that they need to acquire are, in historical terms, extremely cheap.”
Its useful to have a look at the link below, and ask yourself, where does CEY fit in? Look at Evolution, Mkt Cap A$7.5 b, produces 680k ounces pa, profit after tax $345m, p/e 20.6 (and so on). Developing underground at Cowal, 2.55 gpt Au Resource grade, mining method?, ore continuity? (etc)...lots of risk in the pipeline....
https://stockhead.com.au/experts/universally-too-cheap-rick-rule-says-these-ma-focused-gold-miners-are-also-prime-takeover-targets/
CEY looks good to me
as does gold
best
the gnome
This is interesting:
"Some B2Gold Corp. (TSE:BTO) shareholders may be a little concerned to see that the Senior Vice President of Operations, William Lytle, recently sold a substantial CA$829k worth of stock at a price of CA$5.03 per share. That diminished their holding by a very significant 100%, which arguably implies a strong desire to reallocate capital."
https://simplywall.st/stocks/ca/materials/tsx-bto/b2gold-shares/news/trade-alert-the-senior-vice-president-of-operations-of-b2gol
https://www.b2gold.com/corporate/management/
My Thoughts:
This fella divested all his company shares. Why? Perhaps he's on the way out or perhaps he's reinvest in Centamin ? Pure speculation of course but whatever he's doing this is insider knowledge at work!
Also, the B2Gold LinkedIn post has 40 Executive Director interactions - by far the most of any.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_gold-mining-mena-activity-6861428239311650816-_1WY
To me it simply says potentiall private Investors get your act sorted to save wasting our time. Mr Sawaris and others.
But I could be totally wrong.
Politics especially in Egypt ,take great care .
What is awarded can easily be taken away.
That is Centamins huge advantange, learn from history.
-The terms of protocol indicate that the EMRA has to coordinate and take initial approval from the EEAA before contracting or offering any bid for gold mine exploration
- the EEAA would be responsible for issuing environmental approvals within a maximum of 30 days for incoming requests that are in line with its standards.
- On this occasion, El Molla stressed the importance of the current coordination and cooperation between the two ministries in the environmental aspect of mining projects as well as the
optimal exploitation of mineral resources.
My Thoughts:
a maximum 30 day time frame is insanely fast for an environmental approval - hurray!
https://egyptoil-gas.com/news/emra-eeaa-sign-cooperation-protocol-for-environmental-approvals-in-mining-projects/
Implications:
- cut the time to issue tenders by introducing new mechanisms for how the government contracts with private businesses.
- Private-sector players will be able submit unsolicited proposals, while the government would also be allowed to negotiate directly with a sole bidder without needing to take the project through the competitive bidding process.
This should be helpful to Centamin (and others? like Sawiris) wishing to codevelop a project with a government owned enterprise i.e. Shalateen
https://www.masrawy.com/news/news_egypt/details/2021/11/15/2123341/%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D9%8A%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%81%D9%82-%D9%86%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%88%D9%86-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%B5-%D9%81%D9%89-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A9-
You are welcome Mr T
Regards
Thank you Candid & Sotolo for the explanation re dividend & exchange rates etc.
@ 17:11 - CI, my present average stands @ a tad over 101p. The punitive hit was @ 133p.
Agree with what you have said but my inclination is to add when a stock is judged to be recovering rather than targeting a lowest point. The methodology is probably not the smartest but it satisfies.
I continue to compile a fair number of CEY without trying to visualise fanciful $$ nos.
Viable ..it's a very common trait to buy when the price is rising...for fear of missing out on future profits ..
Likewise it's a common trait to sell when the price is falling owing to the fear of increased losses .
Sotolo is right ..a stronger dollar and gold price increase is golden .
Just think of dividends
We will be getting 9 cents dividend ...at the current exchange rate of 1.34 that would equate to 6.72 pence
Now let's say the highly unlikely happens and the dollar is equal to £1.
Then a 9 cents dividend converts to 9 pence dividend
However a stronger dollar does tend to suppress the price of gold because gold is priced in dollars which means that the price of gold falls , to match dollar strength
So under normal situations it tends towards being a zero sum game , but there is obviously some price and therefore profit variance built in .
There is no doubting though the powers of exchange rates because it's the timing of exchange rate differences that are key , especially to the conversion rate for dividends
Having more time on my hands now to follow MM proceedings I had no real idea how much the SP was jerked around. Crackers.
Sorry for the delay in reply,
Egyptian employees & Fuel is procured in Egypt and paid for in EGP.
Sotolo,
Do you happen to know if there was any fuel hedging this year ?
Yes of course Auson, but the Egyptian pound has been almost flat against the dollar this year ranging from 15.6 to 15.76, plus many costs like heavy machinery are in dollars, and the oil price is ultimately connected to its dollar price. So it is the pound dollar that counts for us and a lower pound raises our sterling profits
I remain very confident in Martin Horgan and I am looking forward the next update and seeing the results of his new strategy in 2022!
Sorry some typo's 'below due to me posting to soon, but you know what I mean, still haven't got used to this awful Windows 10, seems to have a mind of its own Microsoft want's us all to subscribe annually TO "Cloud Based services" , not good for the environment as the servers use huge amounts of energy in comparison to making a once off purchase and installation of your own software DVD .
I am going to uninstall all the cloud based Windows 10 Office apps and reinstall my own Office 2016 DVD.
Hi Mr Gnome ,
I agree entirely Mr Gnome, what goes on at a local level in UK government is bad enough with the misinformation and ward boundary manipulation but this is much worse at central government level, the Tories now are manipulating constituency boundaries and watering down the powers of the regulator (Electoral commission).
The Brexit campaign cited the undemocratic way the way the commissioners are elected, (by the member states elected MEP's) in some ways this may be more democratic more than the way the most senior civil servants (Permanent secretaries) those with real power are appointed which is still down to the prime minister and very can be dependent on the old pals network or the color of your public school tie
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/permanent-secretaries
9 December 2019
The European Commission isn't directly elected by citizens in the EU. But the President of the Commission needs to be approved by Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) who are elected by voters from member states. MEPs also vote on whether to approve Commissioners who are nominated by governments of member states.
'Democratic' means different things to different people,
https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-facts-behind-claims-democracy/
https://fullfact.org/election-2019/ask-fullfact-eu-commission-unelected/
Our constituency is unfortunate in having a particularly lazy Tory MP who was chosen to stand after his predecessor ((Tory)former laedrr of the council was forcedto stand down due to selling off punlic assets at a knok down price and also arranging arrbging Publivc Works Boards loans of £10 million for a local business man forthrough the council.
The business man got away with the £10 million and the MP avoided prosecution and bnow works in Tory central office!
Onr new MP an EU sceptip chosen by central office and elected for some reason lives 130 miles away and never appears to anwer any letters for his constiuents!
It seemed a good opportunity to add here this morning despite having had a few negative thoughts in the 90s.
Just 10 trading days until December 1st when we know where the company is at.
Let’s hope we can stay north of 102p this week. Will be happy for any finish about that
Hi Sotolo,
Are wages and fuel for example paid in Egyptian pounds ?
if gold were to stay the same but the dollar halve, then gold would double in sterling which is what matters to us and sterling profits would go up by maybe 4 or 5 times! The exchange rate affects our sterling share price considerable and when everything else is the same a falling pound makes our share like other UK shares that make their profits abroad more valuable. Anyway with my simple maths! All the best and another thing that has been helping us, now lets have rising gold, rising dollar, and rising ounces mined.
Australia is a democracy.?
Not in my definition.
Democracy implies one (voter) has a robust choice of parties, and a party that best represents one's interests and values. This has not been the case for several decades in Oz, and I suspect elsewhere.
Whilst appreciating the history of Australia's development from comprising (very) large groups of criminals from the UK justice system, and a group of the most miserable people on earth (thanks Williams Dampier), so miserable in fact that despite living here for 60,000 years, the good few had to decalre the place Terra Nullius!? ... it is hard to consider that Oz does not have a proper representative government elected via a democratic process (lets not talk about gerry mandering, pork barreling, corruption etc)
But, democracy is a great idea!
the skeptical gnome
Sotolo the currency rates should have nil affect on the value of the product or the value of the share.