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Hello MrBond with regard to remark that the Egyptian government will take control of Sukari.
Endeavour were prepared to face the risk of government intervention.
Other point I’m interested in, do Centamin have a gold processing plant or is the ore processed by a 3rd party before marketed.
If they process, wouldn’t Barrick Gold be attracted to Cey to obtain a ready operating processing plant probably the only one in Egypt.
If you take the GBP200 of cash, the NPV of the West Africa projects, (Doropo us$240m, and I would imagine ABC will get similar us$200m), converting all to GBP 200+180+150=GBP 520
Mkt Cap=960
Residual value=share of GBP 440 .... for plant, equipment, + 10 years ore reserves and 8 years ore resources ....(M+I 290 mt 1.05gt Au 9.81m ozs Au)
really? LOL , market knows best
best
the gnome
Candid in such a takeover it is likely EMRA ie Government would take control of SUKARI.
I would not be surprised by that, a good investment for them.
That is why no others will touch it,in effect Centamin "The Company" is in reallity just managing the asset.
Centamin is a very difficult and potentialy dangerous target for vultures.
They would fight a t/o with a very powerful ally.
It doesn't stretch the imagination too much to envisage a private equity firm acquiring the company and its assets , ceasing capex beyond that needed to sustain the business and selling off all of the individual parts of the business which , one would think, should undoubtedly result in a handsome profit , before moving on to the next target.
Just a thought . I hope that doesn't happen but it could
Paul..You can now actually buy shares in Centamin at a discount to their net book value ....
A billionaire could buy Centamin at current prices and inherit almost £200 million in their bank .
Staggeringly low share price, even I recognise that .
By contrast Polymetal shares for example are trading at 400 % of their net book value
Even Hoschild is trading at a premium despite all of their well publicised troubles
Silly to sell at this share price . The markets have over reacted , I will hold until a sensible price re-emerges
inconceivable to think that they will not be a target for takeover at their current price ..the question is how much ..
I must add.
Another year final 2022 , Basel 111 regulation in place with no exclusions means less paper PM promises to drive the market down when they please.
Quite Right Bond, glass is half full, just feels half empty
Yes another year and it may be much differnt for PMs.
But looking at it another way ,finally a win win for LTHs in that full roduction then at higher sale price =more profit along with further expansion.
What most forget is the rest of the tenement 157 sq klms is at the moment untouched.
Plus the bonus of new licences. Of course not forgetting Cote de Ivorie, who knoes what there.
Bl--dy hell this is looking a bit grim now. That Liberium target is close.
We could do with a bit of good news and a few decent sized director buys. I hope we have started to turn things round, with getting that pile of dirt shifted, the bigger lighter trucks coming along, the solar coming on line and that upgraded crusher. What about the new consessions and some good news in Africa? Maybe santa will resolve the court case!
and what of the court case and mining confirmations?
Looks like its a dog for another year, lets hope the GP increases to balance the **** poor performance. 83p, we are in a buyout territory, the offer, if it comes wont be pretty
Buys = sells , always. The price is set by the marginal trade on the order book, ie the price participants are prepared to trade at. This is clearer if you watch the order book, or trade on the order book, ie buy on the bid and sell on the offer.
Great find Halfpenny, well done.
Trading volume over the last 81 days of 31 more sold, of 47 more bought of 3 average, but a consistent sp decline. For 2022 the rise in AISC was likely, cause inflation. The 50% increase to 150m cost saving programme, the annual production increase towards 500k and the 25% increase in gold reserves outweigh 1 year of high AISC plus gold could be higher in 2022,sp too low for fundamentals and prospects, opinions?
Get our hands on some Barrick shares....lol.
Therefore the lower the sp goes the more likelihood of a takeover a win win scenario ....lol.
No offense meant but I'd take notice of any professional report over anything written by so called experts on any chat forum and that includes myself ??.
Hi Kando,
Interesting post with some pertinent points, like your optimism! , we certainly need plenty of that at the present and confidence in the new management strategy!
I like that word ' disgruntled ' Don't get too complacent though .
The last time it was 80p was nearly 3 years ago , when AISC was half of what it will be in 2022, and when gold prices were on the rise. Also there was more positive sentiment towards a more productive pipeline of future developments.
Since then Sukari has now had 3 years worth of depletion and by their estimation only 10-12 years remain ..news regarding West African assets look less promising than they were , and the mountain of cash is now being likewise depleted to fund capex
Not quite the same circumstances ..of course you could still be right ..let's hope you are
Yes Kando. I pretty much concur with your observations
Volatility everywhere atm.
Retail shareholders , such as ourselves registering our disapproval , as you and gnome suggest is another angle to adopt, to strengthen investor revolt .. the third angle of attack would come from the trustees of the individual company pension funds who are investing their beneficiaries monies with those passive institutional investors ...there is always a way to succeed .
The problem here of course , is that none of these actions are in play.
Not quite sure what we're all so disgruntled about. The share price will recover. The update was a positive one. CEY has been dragged down with metals and other miners on the strengthening dollar and the piling back into certain riskier assets, but this will be temporary. Sure, the fair market value for CEY is closer to 105 than 85, but that's not entirely relevant. It's down on sector weakness. There's plenty to be encouraged by in the form of improving yields, maintained dividends and the prospect of multiple Gold tailwinds. This is still hovering around its support levels. It has spiked down to as low as 80 before, but everytime it has tested the 80p range in the last 5 years, it's soared back up by 40 to 100% within 100 days.
Mr T...it is often predator private equity firms who take up positions on the cheap , looking to benefit from quick turnarounds that they think are achievable in the short term ...there only has to be the ' perception of changes in a company's fortune ' rather than the subsequent realisation of it, to bring about a rapid turnaround of share price . Of course , once they get ' inside the organisation ' and uncover what is really going on , they may conceivably increase their holding and become even more demanding in the process .
I have spoken previously about what I consider to be a sensible strategy to turn the situation around for shareholders
Create a devolved body to run the West African assets ..given free and autonomous power to operate, unencumbered by day to day interference from head office . They will be given adequate funding (possibly financed by debt ) but with progressive targets designed to create value from the asset.
In the mean time , dividends should be reduced to prevailing US interest rates plus 1 or 2 % equity premium . No room for debt AND excessive dividends given the current circumstances