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Because numbers go up if more people are employed it’s that simple. Jobless claims only reports what it says- not everyone immediately claims, as far as I’m aware I don’t see a regular stat stating job losses.
It is what it is so we have trade within the systems
Imperfections
European stock exchanges were mixed in the premarket hours on Friday as investors look to close up this week's trading with the release of several data in the region, including the industrial output in Germany, British house prices, and the unemployment rate in Switzerland.
At 8:00 am CET, the DAX fell 0.14%. The FTSE 100 lost 0.18%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was flat. The CAC 40 added 0.11%.
The euro and the British pound were flat against the dollar, selling at $1.08873 and $1.27420 at 7:58 am CET.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AB
Happy Friday y’al
Enjoy your weekend.
Gold currently + .18%
One additional statistic that offers a divergence with the ADP numbers and probably Non Farm Pay roles later today. was the grand total of people in work shrank by 315,000. So how can monthly numbers go up when the national employment numbers are shrinking. Hence the theory of part-time second jobs being counted in the numbers.
More details;
USA ADP
Job numbers in manufacturing, information and finance are falling.
ISM reports recession and ISM services is rising, but showing late cycle growth.
Jobs increasing are in Leisure and hospitality (after all it is summer), trade and transport, education and health services.
71M USA citizens are on Medicare and this fuels health service spending supported and paid by the Government.
California is in recession and certainly going out to restaurants is in decline. The Carolinas are booming on the southwest coast of USA which are apparently having a construction boom. The midwestern States are now experiencing a big slow down and are clearly heading into a recession. The eastern seaboard States are braced for hurricane season and it is normal for USA workers to migrate there in anticipation of future work. A lot of the job activities are geared to repairing the damage afterwards. This of course is measured as positive GDP growth.
The FED has a problem as regional variations in the states clearly exist to people who live in those areas. Anything to do with making products outside of the military is probably in recession. Anything associated and attached to services where the government pays is rising (increased fiscal spend). Raising rates is not the answer unless they want a magnified deeper recession. Not surprised some hedge funds are preparing for a very hard landing.
Inverted yield curves suggesting major recession risk that is greater than 2008.
Tony
Like it has been assumed? Seems not.
The recent law which granted negotiating powers to Egypt's Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources makes amendments to these type of existing concession laws possible (in the following case it's for an oil/gas co.).
This *could* be good news for approving an amendment to the existing Sukari concession law 1994 to exploit newly discovered deposits surrounding Sukari - utilizing the existing plant/infrastructure.
A rare streamlining/cutting red tape effort by the Egyptians that apparently worked for Trident Petroleum Egypt. (And a rare positive post by Yours Truly - see I can be optimistic if the right occasion should arise)
-------------------------->>>>
posted 1hr ago
Great news!!!
My company’s concession commitment agreement amendment has been approved by the council of ministers.
A law licensing the Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources to contract with the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) and Trident Petroleum Egypt to amend the commitment agreement issued under the Law 204 of the year 2017 for the oil exploration, exploitation and development at Esh El-Mallaha Marine Field (Magawish).
This means that we have a lot of work to do…
Kindly wish us luck.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sarafakhry_petroleum-work-development-activity-7082758771109769216-qOcx
Mr Tibbs they are cheap. The only negative stat is 5% appreciation in the pound, but they also have an additional 1.8M reserve ounces added (without a mine = $80 an ounce). They report on the Sukari expansion results in December and will identify how much of the depleted reserves are being replaced. In December last year 800,000 reserves were replaced and 1.3M resource ounces were added 13 Dec RNS 2022. So the -5% on the pound is off set by likely equal to the the reserve after recovering all 2023 mining. The Doropo reserves declared equal 6p on the share price. 5% of Centamin at peak price of 125p is 6.25p CEY share price and so they equal out.
Be nice to see Martin Horgan buy a million, after all he did say they were very cheap a these prices!
The higher interest rates , the stronger America gets. Latest stats show America is still in boom time. Looks to me that we are looking at least half percent rise to even one this year. Has to be the most robust economy on the planet.
Only took two days to have RSIs oversold and stochastics on zero. I have two bonds maturing next month and another later this month. Enough to double my Centamin position. Considering production is way higher than in H1 and 88p represented 1750 gold last year and at 1911 area it was 103p. The AISC is about the same and production this year is higher. Centamin is clobbered 17% lower with earnings far higher. Average gold price sold last year was 1789 and probably over 1925 so far this year. Massively undervalued.
Yes I agree Goldgnome
So this afternoon bought Soverigns
added considerably to what is becoming my hoard.
and the queen can eat her bread and honey.
Inflation not deflation in previous.
They include huge numbers of part time jobs for example weekend working jobs that people take on on top of a normal 5 day week job. What some people are doing to cope with inflation is to work more shifts or two jobs. This of course is not sustainable for more than say 6 months. The job numbers are simply measuring stress of main street in dealing with deflation as their savings are getting wiped out. The real growth or inflationary effect of the numbers is zero. It may however dampen recessionary impacts in some areas. The housing sector is clearly in recession and getting ignored.
This needs to be called out as the numbers are portrayed as a means to justify more rate hikes and deepen main street recession further.
In the title
There are no limits on the amount of fiat money which can be issued, and this has been going on for decades. It is the only way the economies can be managed. Money is an efficient payment mechanism for goods and services and not store of wealth. Why people are continually confused about this is beyond me. The results are a continual depreciation of the value of the exchange mechanism (money) ...
Gold is a store of weath, an exchange mechanism, and has utility because of its exveptional physical and chemical
characteristics
Major stock indexes in Europe traded lower in the premarket on Thursday as more economic releases lined up. Today, investors will be focusing on German factory orders, the United Kingdom's construction PMI and the Eurozone's retail sales.
Meanwhile, yesterday, the Federal Reserve's minutes showed that "almost all" policymakers of the world's largest economy are expecting further interest rate increases. However, "many" of them also said that "a further moderation in the pace of policy firming was appropriate."
The DAX fell 0.28% at 8:02 am CET, while the Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0.58% and the FTSE 100 declined 0.49% at the same time. The CAC 40 decreased 0.23% simultaneously.
The euro and the pound were both flat against the dollar at 7:59 am CET, selling for 1.08549 and 1.27109 respectively.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AY
Follows on from a point made by Sotolo earlier as to why things may be changing.
Courtesy of gold eagle which do scribe some good articles occasionally.
https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/despite-declining-price-gold-strengthening
In my own opinion, so many are on the other side of the boat trying to short gold when sentiment has collapsed. I still think Sovereign debt issues really piling up in a bad way if central banks keep firing up interest rates. There is huge problems in both USA and UK economies and both are suffering with Main street recession. Wall street and central banks are in another universe. The correct policy on rates is to go flat and re-examine the fiscal side are doing and calibrate the damage being done in the wider economy as a result of it and that is a difficult discussion to have between them. I question the point of higher interest rates when governments print money for whatever they want to kingdom come which is mainly to serve their pet interests.
As FED utters further rate rises , got to keep the currency going.
Though it may cause more Banking panic - Rock and hard place comes to mind.
Poor old FED .
Of course inflation is transitory.
So says you.
--------------------->>>
After a 2019 feasibility study, Centamin plc, a gold mining company listed in London and Toronto, has decided to implement a 30MW AC solar power installation at its principal asset, the Sukari Gold Mine in Egypt, according to International Mining. The mine is currently powered by captive generators that burn up to 100 million liters of diesel.
The study indicated that a minimum of 36MW DC / 30MW AC peak power hybrid solar plant would be the optimal capacity for an initial staged integration to the processing plant. Notably, Sukari is located in Egypt’s Eastern Desert, which enjoys some of the highest levels of solar irradiance globally, annualizing over ten hours a day of sunshine. Nevertheless, battery storage of 7.5MW is needed to manage start-up and shut down surges.
The solar project, which is scoped over 85 hectares, would cost $37 million and meet about 25% of Sukari’s energy needs. Its capacity can be expanded in the future if so required.
Annually, it would save 18-20 million liters of fuel and reduce CO2 emissions by 48,000 – 53,000 tonnes.
The project is expected to complete by 2021 and payback in about three years.
https://energyandmines.com/2020/06/centamin-plc-planning-30mw-solar-power-for-sukari-gold-operation-in-egypt/
------------------------------->>>
3bear,
note above is a June , 2020 article ( Mr Horgan became CEO of Centamin in April 2020 ) and it simply reflects the contents of Centamin's own press releases (of which there were numerous over successive quarters )
So as far as 'on time' - no, the board's plan was to have it in place in 2021 from an already delivered 2019 feasibility study. Who authorized/requested a second PFS? Why? Talk about wasted time, diesel fuel & money paying 3rd parties to study what was already decided.
And as far as 'on budget', it cost more too, $34 million in 2021 & $15 million in 2022 , however the exact breakout costs for 2022 weren't included in the sustainability report here:
https://www.centamin.com/media/2539/cey-2021-sustainability-report.pdf
(see page 62 )
- so unless somebody can get confirmation of the total actual cost for the solar project - one must assume it's $34 + $15 = $49 million - that's far more than the $37million allotted on the original PFS. Why? Who got the contractor changed? To who's benefit? Mr Horgan did not explain to shareholders why they ended up paying so much more.
You know, it's tiring babysitting shareholders , why Centamin shareholders in particular are clueless as to timelines, costs, PFSs and Mr Horgan's deficiencies is beyond me. Wake up and take responsibility for your investments. The company belongs to you, therefore the decisions/actions of the CEO should reflect as much.
Cowichan - enrich his ESG buddies (solar project) ???
This project is displacing 20million litres of diesel a year at 80-90c the litre. it will pay for itself in two years. It was executed flawlessly on time to budget and is delivering nameplate capacity. Diesel has to trucked out to sukari 30,000 litres at a time in tanker trucks. This is a win win win and is rightly being expanded. Surely you can't moan about that?
Hi Mr T. The garden is not doing too well. Some of the little apple trees have very few apples on them and the same with a few of the plums. Probably due to winter dragging on?? I've had a few black and red currants and with the cuttings I took, hopefully next year will be better. No luck at all with turnips or onions growing so far??? At lease the courgettes have finally started to produce and the tomato plants are still alive so far. The garden is a bit like these shares----always hoping that next year will be better.
I actually think I'll go for gold toe capped boots instead of flip flops. :-)
What follows is a comparison of gold miner CEO pay as a cost (an expense) per ounce of gold. In other words the total CEO compensation divided by the total number of ounces produced in the year 2022 (where companies mine copper etc. the sales were converted to equivalent gold ounces) Drum roll please ....
Northern Star $ 0.39
Newmont $ 2.28
IAMGOLD $ 2.88
Kinross $ 2.97
Barrick $ 3.17
Centamin $ 4.16*
B2Gold $ 5.59
Endeavour $ 7.75
Alamos $ 7.95
Eldorado $ 8.06
Centerra $ 21.00*
You'll notice neither Centamin nor Centerra originally appears on the graphic link, they are included in the LinkedIn comments. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jftduncan_ive-put-this-quick-chart-together-to-hopefully-activity-7077644511136428032-xQL2
Now before somebody dismisses the comparison as a simple 'you get what you pay for' or 'returns are based on profitable ounces not total production' - consider Northern Star Resources, the lowest CEO pay, generated shareholder return of 14% in 2022. Meanwhile Eldorado lost 9%.
I suppose Centamin's place in the middle is neither good or bad , except that CEO's paid both less and more outperformed Centamin across the board (ever since Mr Horgan arrived.)
Just what are the metrics by which Mr Horgan was to be compensated? Production growth? ROE? Reduced AISC? New ounces discovered?
So far he's been rewarded to enrich his friends at Capital Drilling, enrich his ESG buddies (solar project), appoint friends from his previous life onto the Centamin payroll (FTI Consulting), abandon West Africa deposits (Batie) and run-out-the-clock on the final hope of diversification (Doropo.) Yippee!
Hi Paul,
I hope that you are still enjoying your garden!
Our golden flip flops must be very dusty now considering how long they have been buried under all that open pit Pardy crap !
Doesn't natter how many analysts put a spin on this or how many more slick presentations on what might be take place, we need some measurable progress and a finishing date for the waste contact, that's what's killing the share price because market confidence has been well and truly destroyed by the previous bunch of carpet baggers running Sukari!
So come on Centamin or FTI consultancy let's have some news!
Best
Tibbs
Sotolo,
I think Gold gets a six week bounce and then drops back. Rates unlikely to go up in August and for many central banks are not going up in July either. The picture on rates and inflation will be clear by September and both probably go up. We shall see if my call is right. There is less risk shorting gold if the price was over $2000 an ounce. Tony
Tornado slightly disagree on the reason, I think it is because real interest rates are rising again, now around 2% in the USA on the 10 year TIPS, the norm for calculating, and many investors see this rising further putting pressure on gold. The whole sector is down on anticipation of this, though investors may be right or wrong predicting the future, but that is what markets do