London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
They include huge numbers of part time jobs for example weekend working jobs that people take on on top of a normal 5 day week job. What some people are doing to cope with inflation is to work more shifts or two jobs. This of course is not sustainable for more than say 6 months. The job numbers are simply measuring stress of main street in dealing with deflation as their savings are getting wiped out. The real growth or inflationary effect of the numbers is zero. It may however dampen recessionary impacts in some areas. The housing sector is clearly in recession and getting ignored.
This needs to be called out as the numbers are portrayed as a means to justify more rate hikes and deepen main street recession further.
Inflation not deflation in previous.
More details;
USA ADP
Job numbers in manufacturing, information and finance are falling.
ISM reports recession and ISM services is rising, but showing late cycle growth.
Jobs increasing are in Leisure and hospitality (after all it is summer), trade and transport, education and health services.
71M USA citizens are on Medicare and this fuels health service spending supported and paid by the Government.
California is in recession and certainly going out to restaurants is in decline. The Carolinas are booming on the southwest coast of USA which are apparently having a construction boom. The midwestern States are now experiencing a big slow down and are clearly heading into a recession. The eastern seaboard States are braced for hurricane season and it is normal for USA workers to migrate there in anticipation of future work. A lot of the job activities are geared to repairing the damage afterwards. This of course is measured as positive GDP growth.
The FED has a problem as regional variations in the states clearly exist to people who live in those areas. Anything to do with making products outside of the military is probably in recession. Anything associated and attached to services where the government pays is rising (increased fiscal spend). Raising rates is not the answer unless they want a magnified deeper recession. Not surprised some hedge funds are preparing for a very hard landing.
Inverted yield curves suggesting major recession risk that is greater than 2008.
Tony
One additional statistic that offers a divergence with the ADP numbers and probably Non Farm Pay roles later today. was the grand total of people in work shrank by 315,000. So how can monthly numbers go up when the national employment numbers are shrinking. Hence the theory of part-time second jobs being counted in the numbers.
Because numbers go up if more people are employed it’s that simple. Jobless claims only reports what it says- not everyone immediately claims, as far as I’m aware I don’t see a regular stat stating job losses.
It is what it is so we have trade within the systems
Imperfections
The first Thursday of each month is invariably sandwiched between two job market reports, namely the ADP private sector payrolls report — released by human resources and management software and services provider Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ: ADP) — and the Department of Labor's monthly non-farm payrolls report.
Invariably, both the reports move the markets, and are therefore termed as first-tier reports.
Ever wondered why two reports capable of spooking the markets come out within a gap of a day?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adp-report-differs-nfp-report-185002989.html
https://www.bullionvault.co.uk/gold-news/us-jobs-adp-040220144
https://ibkrcampus.com/traders-insight/securities/macro/non-farm-payrolls-vs-adp/
They are forever changing their opinions on gold, likely because they don't really know and only care about shuffling the indices anyway!
(Kitco News) - The Federal Reserve's solidly hawkish stance on monetary policy is sapping momentum from the goldgold market, with one bank seeing prices holding relatively steady through the rest of the year.
In an update of their price forecasts, commodity analysts at Bank of America have downgraded their average annual price targets for precious metals across the board.
Looking at gold, Bank of America sees prices now averaging the year around $1,923 an ounce, down more than 4% from their previous average of $2,009 an ounce.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-07-06/Bank-of-America-downgrades-gold-silver-prices-for-2023-as-Fed-rate-hikes-keep-investors-away.html